Bitcoin bull run only halfway through, says veteran macro investor Dan Tapiero, who argues the current cycle is far from exhausted despite recent volatility and uncertainty in global markets.
According to Tapiero, a long-time institutional investor in digital assets and macro trends, Bitcoin is still in the middle phase of its ongoing bull market. In his view, what the market is experiencing now is not the euphoric late stage of a rally, but a consolidation period before a potential new leg higher.
He highlights a striking disconnect: Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold has been flat since 2021, even though the digital asset industry has made what he describes as “a huge number of positive fundamental developments” over the same period. For him, this stable BTC/gold ratio is inconsistent with the scale of growth, innovation and institutionalization seen in crypto since the last cycle peak.
Tapiero expects Bitcoin to eventually “catch up” to precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which have already posted impressive gains in 2024. From a macro standpoint, he believes markets have not fully priced in how dramatically the structure and maturity of the crypto ecosystem have changed since the previous cycle.
One of his central arguments is that the crypto industry today looks nothing like it did in 2021. Back then, the space was dominated by speculative narratives, retail mania and relatively immature business models. Now, he points to:
– A broader and more diversified set of crypto-related businesses
– Real, recurring revenue streams across exchanges, infrastructure, custody and blockchain services
– More robust compliance, accounting and governance frameworks
– A shift from purely speculative use cases to payment, settlement, tokenization and enterprise-level applications
In Tapiero’s view, these developments mean that the asset class is entering a more sustainable, institutionally compatible stage of growth, even if prices have not yet fully reflected this evolution.
A major pillar of his thesis is the entry of leading private digital asset companies into public equity markets. Tapiero argues that as large crypto firms list on major U.S. exchanges, they won’t just raise capital — they will also unlock new, durable sources of liquidity for the entire sector.
He notes that listings on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq play a crucial legitimizing role. Public companies must adhere to strict disclosure, accounting and governance standards. For crypto businesses, this visibility can help dispel perceptions of opacity or informality and align them with the expectations of large institutions, pension funds and traditional asset managers.
Among the upcoming milestones, Tapiero points to the planned initial public offering of Kraken, one of the industry’s oldest and most recognizable exchanges. He also mentions that four to five prominent crypto-focused fund and asset management firms are preparing to enter public markets. Combined with a rising wave of mergers and acquisitions, this signals to him that the sector is transitioning from a niche, high-risk frontier to an integrated part of global capital markets.
Beyond markets, Tapiero stresses the importance of political and regulatory momentum in the United States. He describes an ongoing “Americanization of crypto,” meaning that the U.S. is steadily becoming the central stage on which much of the industry’s next phase will play out.
He underscores that the market capitalization of U.S. equities is now about 65% larger than that of Europe and Asia combined. While many European stock markets are still trading at or below their 2008 levels, the Nasdaq has surged more than tenfold since the global financial crisis. For Tapiero, this divergence matters: the largest pool of equity capital, investor demand and risk appetite is located in the United States, and digital asset companies increasingly want direct access to that ecosystem.
Looking ahead, Tapiero anticipates that more global crypto and blockchain firms will tap U.S. capital markets through various routes, including:
– Traditional initial public offerings (IPOs)
– Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)
– Reverse takeovers and other backdoor listings
This migration, he argues, will further root the digital asset economy in U.S. financial infrastructure and regulatory frameworks, deepening both oversight and investor participation.
Another cornerstone of his bullish mid-cycle view is the explosive growth of stablecoins, especially those denominated in U.S. dollars. Tapiero highlights that stablecoin transaction volumes and circulating supply have climbed from “almost nothing” five years ago to hundreds of billions in usage and settlement value today.
To him, stablecoins represent more than a trading tool: they are a real-world, functioning use case for blockchain technology, facilitating cross-border payments, on-chain finance and dollar access in regions with weaker banking systems. Combined with what he characterizes as “increasingly favorable” regulatory conditions for digital asset innovation in key jurisdictions, he sees stablecoins as a powerful demand driver underpinning the broader crypto economy.
From an equity market perspective, Tapiero currently counts only five to ten major publicly listed crypto and blockchain companies of global significance. Yet he expects that number to multiply rapidly. Over the next five years, he forecasts that at least 50 additional significant players from across the industry — exchanges, infrastructure providers, miners, custodians, tokenization platforms, data firms and more — will list on stock exchanges around the world, with a concentration in the United States.
He believes this influx of public companies will:
– Make the sector more transparent through quarterly reporting and audited financials
– Give traditional investors easier exposure via equities rather than direct token purchases
– Encourage more conservative risk management and governance as firms answer to public shareholders
– Reinforce the perception of digital assets as a permanent component of the global financial system
Tapiero has also issued price projections for silver, gold and Bitcoin, framing them as part of a broader macro environment in which hard assets benefit from monetary policy, debt dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty. While he did not publicize specific numerical targets in the cited remarks, the implication is that he sees significant upside remaining for Bitcoin alongside precious metals over the coming years.
In his mid-cycle framework, the current environment resembles a consolidation and repricing phase, not a bubble top. He portrays Bitcoin as still in the process of being revalued in light of the increasing institutionalization of digital assets, rather than merely responding to speculative flows or retail euphoria. That, in his view, is why Bitcoin’s stagnation versus gold since 2021 looks misaligned with the scale of evolution in the underlying ecosystem.
From a broader market-structure angle, Tapiero’s stance suggests that Bitcoin’s role inside the crypto stack is also maturing. While newer sectors like decentralized finance and web3 applications capture attention, Bitcoin remains the primary macro asset and benchmark. Its integration into regulated vehicles, the entrance of more public companies with BTC on their balance sheet, and its growing acceptance among traditional allocators all feed into his thesis that the asset’s bull market has room to extend.
He also implicitly contrasts today’s backdrop with that of 2021, when interest rates were lower and speculative excess rampant. Even though short-term rates have risen sharply since then, the digital asset space has continued to expand, attract capital and refine its business models. For Tapiero, this resilience under tighter monetary conditions further supports the argument that the current cycle is fundamentally driven rather than purely liquidity-fueled.
For investors, his view of Bitcoin as “mid-cycle” carries several implications:
– The current period of choppy price action could be an accumulation zone, not a sign that the story is over.
– Growing links between crypto companies and public equity markets may create new indirect ways to gain exposure.
– Policy shifts in Washington, institutional adoption and stablecoin growth may matter as much as on-chain metrics or short-term technical analysis.
Tapiero’s overarching message is that the digital asset market, while already substantial, is still in the process of being fully integrated into global finance. With more companies going public, greater political engagement, and a rapidly expanding dollar-based stablecoin layer, he argues that Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex are only in the middle stages of a longer structural bull trend — not at its end.