Bitcoin’s latest pullback into the $75,000–$80,000 band is emerging as a key battleground for bulls and bears, with on-chain analyst PlanC arguing that this area could represent the deepest correction of the current bull market cycle.
According to PlanC, the recent slide places Bitcoin roughly 37%–40% below its all‑time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025. That scale of decline fits neatly within the correction range historically seen in previous Bitcoin bull runs, which often absorb 35%–40% setbacks before resuming their broader uptrend.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin traded between $77,082 and $83,426, cementing a steep drawdown across multiple timeframes. The asset is down about 6.0% on the day, 11.6% over the past week and roughly 23.5% compared with the same time last year. This multi‑month cooling period has fueled debate over whether the market is carving out a durable floor or merely pausing before another leg lower.
PlanC argues that the correction into the mid‑$70,000s is consistent with the “standard” turbulence that accompanies each explosive phase of Bitcoin appreciation. From his perspective, this particular retracement has a “decent chance” of becoming the most severe pullback investors get during the current bull run, though he stresses that this is his personal assessment rather than formal investment guidance.
He highlights that previous cycles have featured similar, sharp retracements that shook out leveraged traders and latecomers without destroying the longer‑term uptrend. A 37% to 40% fall from the October 2025 peak, he notes, would not be unusual when placed against the backdrop of earlier market cycles.
To bolster his view, PlanC draws parallels between today’s structure and three notable historical capitulation phases:
– The late‑2018 bear market bottom around $3,000,
– The March 2020 pandemic crash that temporarily sent Bitcoin near $5,100,
– And the post‑FTX meltdown low near $15,500 in late 2022.
In each of those moments, selling appeared overwhelming and sentiment was deeply pessimistic, only for the market to stage substantial recoveries in the months that followed. He suggests that the current turbulence might be another instance of such a “major capitulation low” forming in real time.
While PlanC sees the present zone as a potentially attractive long‑term opportunity, other market observers are more cautious. Bitcoin supporter and financial accountant Rajat Soni warns traders not to overinterpret weekend price swings, cautioning that “weekend pumps or dumps” often prove misleading. His view is that Bitcoin typically reasserts its longer‑term trajectory unexpectedly, catching both bulls and bears off guard.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is among those who doubt that the market has yet seen its final significant low. He envisions the possibility of a deeper retracement toward $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, arguing that cyclical dynamics and market structure still leave room for further downside before a sustained advance resumes.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen adds another layer of skepticism. He projects that the broader market cycle low could land in early October 2026, a timeline that suggests many months of choppy, range‑bound trading ahead. According to his outlook, several impressive rallies may occur between now and the ultimate bottom, but these rebounds could end up as “relief rallies” that lure in optimistic buyers before the trend turns lower again.
If Cowen’s scenario plays out, traders should be prepared for a prolonged period where volatility remains elevated and price action becomes more deceptive. Short‑term recoveries might appear to confirm a new uptrend, only to reverse abruptly as macro conditions, liquidity shifts or regulatory news weigh on sentiment once more.
The divergence in analyst opinions underscores how difficult it is to call a definitive cycle bottom in real time. Historically, Bitcoin’s turning points have only become obvious in hindsight, once price has already moved substantially away from the extreme. Those who try to “nail the bottom” risk missing the opportunity entirely or getting whipsawed by multiple failed attempts.
From a broader market‑cycle perspective, the current pullback can be seen as a stress test of investor conviction. During powerful bull markets, corrections often serve to reset overheated funding rates, flush speculative leverage and transfer coins from short‑term traders to long‑term holders. If on‑chain data eventually confirms that long‑term investors are accumulating in this zone, it could lend weight to PlanC’s thesis of a major cycle low.
At the same time, macroeconomic factors cannot be ignored. Interest‑rate expectations, liquidity conditions, regulatory developments and institutional flows all shape how deep and how long a correction can run. A move toward $60,000, as Brandt suggests, would likely require a combination of risk‑off sentiment and waning demand from large buyers who have underpinned price on previous dips.
For long‑term participants, the key question is less about pinpointing the exact bottom and more about understanding the risk‑reward balance at different price tiers. A 37%–40% drawdown from the peak historically has not invalidated Bitcoin’s multi‑year uptrends, but it has tested the patience and emotional resilience of market participants. Investors who treat Bitcoin as a high‑volatility, long‑duration asset often spread their entries across several tranches precisely because of this uncertainty.
Short‑term traders face a different calculus. For them, volatility in the $75,000–$80,000 range may present opportunities for range trading or momentum strategies, but it also requires disciplined risk management. Sudden wicks, liquidity gaps and weekend volatility—issues Soni highlights—can quickly turn a winning trade into a loss for those who employ heavy leverage or lack clear exit plans.
Another aspect worth considering is how narratives shift during such corrections. Near all‑time highs, optimism about institutional adoption, technological upgrades and macro hedging potential tends to dominate. As prices fall 30% or more, those same narratives are challenged by headlines about regulatory pressure, profit‑taking and “bubble” warnings. The ability to filter signal from noise becomes especially crucial in these phases.
Historically, some of Bitcoin’s most attractive long‑term buying zones have coincided with widespread doubt and fatigue rather than excitement. Capitulation events—like those in 2018, 2020 and 2022—were accompanied by strong negative sentiment, only to later be recognized as strategic entry points. Whether the current $75,000–$80,000 region ultimately joins that list will depend on how price and fundamentals evolve over the coming quarters.
For those navigating the market today, a few practical principles emerge from the clash of viewpoints:
– Treat any single analyst’s outlook, bullish or bearish, as one data point rather than a certainty.
– Recognize that 35%–40% drawdowns have been part of previous bull cycles, not necessarily the end of them.
– Accept that both a rebound from current levels and a drop toward $60,000 are plausible scenarios, given the diversity of expert opinions.
– Structure exposure so that either outcome is survivable, rather than trying to perfectly time the exact turning point.
Ultimately, the debate around whether $75,000–$80,000 is the cycle’s final major dip reflects a deeper truth about Bitcoin: its path is rarely linear, and its most dramatic gains have almost always been preceded by equally dramatic periods of doubt and volatility. Whether PlanC’s “deepest pullback opportunity” thesis proves accurate or whether Brandt and Cowen’s lower‑low scenarios play out, the current phase is likely to be remembered as a crucial chapter in this cycle’s evolution.