Solana’s on-chain metrics have been flashing green, yet its price action continues to struggle, pointing to a market where activity and valuation are moving in opposite directions. After multiple failed attempts to break above a major resistance around 150 dollars, SOL has slid back toward the psychological and technical support area near 100 dollars, leaving bulls on the defensive and short-term traders eyeing further downside.
For nearly two months, buyers repeatedly tested the 150-dollar supply zone but were unable to secure a decisive breakout. Each push higher was met with heavy selling pressure, signaling that larger players were still using rallies to offload positions. The latest wave of market-wide risk-off sentiment accelerated this rejection, knocking SOL down toward the 100-dollar region and reinforcing the prevailing bearish tone.
On higher timeframes, the picture looks even more cautious. The weekly chart has shifted to a bearish bias following an impressive run into late 2024. That strong uptrend was interrupted in April 2025 by a clear break in market structure to the downside. Instead of being a brief liquidity hunt, later price action confirmed that this move represented a genuine change in trend direction.
A key moment was the rejection in September 2025 at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 252.9 dollars. That rejection effectively validated the April breakdown as a lasting shift rather than a temporary shakeout. Since then, the market has struggled to reestablish a convincing series of higher highs and higher lows, a hallmark of a sustainable bullish trend.
Given that backdrop, the probability of SOL undercutting its April 2025 swing low at roughly 95 dollars has grown significantly. The market has been grinding lower, and each bounce has been shorter-lived, suggesting that buyers are either exhausted or standing aside, waiting for more attractive entry levels. Unless there is a rapid change in sentiment or a strong macro catalyst, the path of least resistance for the short term still appears to point downward.
This does not mean there are no bullish arguments at all. On-chain data has been encouraging: network usage has risen, indicating that Solana remains a popular platform for transactions, decentralized applications, and other on-chain activity. When sustained over time, such growth can support a stronger fundamental valuation, as real economic activity replaces pure speculation. For long-term investors, an active network is often viewed as a positive sign, even if price lags behind.
Some long-range projections have also remained optimistic. While near-term targets like 300 dollars were judged unlikely unless buyers can firmly reclaim the 150-dollar supply area, multi-year forecasts paint a far more ambitious picture. Various modeling attempts have suggested that in a favorable scenario, SOL could feasibly reach four-digit levels over the coming years. One particularly bullish scenario projected potential prices as high as 3,200 dollars by 2029, assuming rapid ecosystem expansion, sustained user growth, and continued adoption of Solana-based applications.
On the other hand, more conservative or short-term oriented prediction efforts have been far less enthusiastic. Targets around 450 dollars were often deemed too aggressive without a dramatic shift in both broader crypto market conditions and Solana’s own technical structure. For traders focused on the next few months rather than the next few years, these lofty figures are largely irrelevant until SOL clears and holds pivotal resistance zones, especially around 150 dollars.
Turning to the daily chart, the technical signals currently favor caution rather than aggression from the bull side. A bearish swing structure shift has appeared, indicating that the series of lows and highs is now pointing downward. Local supply zones can be identified near 120 and 140 dollars, where previous buying attempts failed and where sellers stepped in with conviction.
Momentum indicators support this cautious stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the one-day timeframe sits deep in oversold territory, with readings around 22. Such low levels tell us that selling has been intense and relentless. Yet oversold does not automatically mean “time to buy”; markets can remain oversold for longer than many expect in strong downtrends. The RSI’s condition suggests that a relief bounce is possible, but not guaranteed to launch a full trend reversal.
Volume-based indicators paint a similarly bearish picture. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has dropped to new multi-month lows, highlighting a sustained net outflow of capital from SOL over recent sessions. Heavy selling volume without corresponding buying spikes typically signals that distribution is ongoing, not that capitulation is complete.
For swing traders, the technical setup has led to a clear tactical stance: “sell the bounce.” In practical terms, this means waiting for price to retrace back into resistance areas—particularly around 120 dollars, and potentially as high as 140 dollars—before looking to open short positions. These zones align with previous supply and broken support, making them logical areas where sellers could reassert control if a short-lived recovery unfolds.
Below current prices, several key long-term support levels could eventually attract bargain hunters. The 95-dollar region, which coincides with the April 2025 swing low, is the first obvious area to watch. If that floor gives way decisively, the next notable supports on the chart lie near 78 dollars, followed by deeper zones around 64 and 47.9 dollars. Each of these tiers could produce temporary bullish reactions or consolidation phases, especially if broader market conditions stabilize or improve.
However, the macro driver for the entire crypto space—Bitcoin—remains crucial. A drop in Bitcoin’s price below the 74,000-dollar mark would likely reinforce the bearish case for SOL and other altcoins. Historically, sharp declines in Bitcoin tend to trigger even larger percentage drops in high-beta assets like Solana, as risk appetite contracts and capital flows to perceived safer havens or exits the market entirely.
Despite the short-term gloom, it is important to differentiate between cyclical price behavior and structural fundamentals. Solana continues to be positioned as a high-throughput, low-fee blockchain, which is appealing for applications that require speed and scalability. Increased on-chain activity can reflect growth in areas such as decentralized finance, NFTs, gaming, and other high-frequency use cases. If this development persists across cycles, it can lay the groundwork for future price appreciation once market sentiment turns.
Investors with longer horizons often take advantage of such drawdowns to average into positions rather than chase parabolic rallies. That said, this approach comes with its own set of risks. Timing remains uncertain, and prices can undershoot perceived “fair value” for extended periods. Those considering long-term exposure to SOL may choose to scale in gradually, define clear risk limits, and avoid over-concentration in a single asset.
From a risk management perspective, separating trading and investing strategies can be helpful. Short-term traders might focus on technical levels, momentum shifts, and volatility spikes to guide entries and exits, especially around the 120, 95, and 78-dollar areas. Longer-term participants could pay closer attention to ecosystem growth metrics—such as active addresses, total value locked in protocols, and developer activity—to assess whether the underlying story remains intact despite price weakness.
Another factor to keep in mind is sentiment. When narratives flip from euphoria to pessimism, price often overshoots in both directions. The same asset that was considered “unstoppable” at the top can appear “dead” after a prolonged correction. In such environments, contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge, but only for those who are disciplined enough to respect risk while looking beyond short-term noise.
Ultimately, the near-term outlook for Solana remains skewed to the downside as long as key resistance levels cap price and selling pressure dominates volume. On-chain strength is a constructive signal, yet it has not been powerful enough—so far—to override the technical damage on higher timeframes. A more convincing bullish case would likely require SOL to reclaim and hold the 150-dollar zone, rebuild a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and demonstrate sustained accumulation in volume indicators.
Until those conditions appear, traders are likely to treat rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure or open short positions, while investors may watch from the sidelines or accumulate cautiously at predetermined levels. Solana’s story is far from over, but in the current chapter, the market still seems inclined to test how low it must go before true long-term demand confidently steps in.
This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or trading advice. Digital assets are highly volatile and speculative. Anyone considering involvement with cryptocurrencies should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional if necessary before making any financial decisions.