XRP slides 5% as $1.05 gives way: bears tighten grip, key $1 level in focus
XRP extended its downside move on July 28, dropping about 5% and slipping under the closely watched $1.05 support area as a combination of forced liquidations, weak technical signals and broader risk aversion hit the market. The move deepened a downtrend that has been weighing on the token since May and raised the risk of a test of the psychological $1.00 threshold.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading near $1.049 after touching an intraday low of $1.0486 on Binance, staying pinned close to session lows. The latest leg lower followed several failed recovery attempts over previous days and confirmed a bearish chart pattern that had been forming on lower timeframes.
Double-top pattern breaks down
On the 4-hour chart, XRP has carved out two rounded peaks in the $1.17 area, forming a textbook double-top structure. Both rallies stalled before buyers could secure a firm foothold above $1.15, signaling fading bullish strength with each push higher.
A horizontal neckline around $1.054 marked the key boundary between a potential consolidation and outright bearish confirmation. Once price slipped decisively below that neckline on July 28, it opened the door to further losses toward the late-June lows near $1.01-$1.03 and, ultimately, the psychological $1 level.
The breakdown came after repeated failures in the $1.11 region during earlier sessions. Sellers gradually strengthened their grip as the market rejected that zone multiple times. After XRP lost $1.08, downside momentum picked up, and the approach to the neckline triggered a fresh wave of selling.
Momentum gauges flash oversold, but no confirmed bottom
Short-term indicators reflect how quickly the bears seized control. On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) slid to 25.93, moving below the commonly watched 30 line that signals oversold conditions. However, the RSI’s moving average remained much higher, at 41.94, highlighting how abrupt the recent downdraft has been.
While oversold readings can prompt short-lived bounces as traders take profits on winning shorts or attempt to catch a reversal, they do not in themselves guarantee that a durable bottom is in place. For XRP to start neutralizing the current bearish setup, bulls would first need to reclaim the broken $1.054 zone and then build a higher low above recent troughs.
This kind of structural shift usually takes time: a single sharp recovery candle is often not enough. Traders will be watching whether any rebound stalls near resistance levels or instead leads to a constructive series of higher highs and higher lows.
Liquidations accelerate the selloff
Derivatives data show that liquidations amplified XRP’s slide. As price fell from roughly $1.105 toward $1.05 over a 24‑hour window, the market moved through several zones of concentrated leveraged positions.
The initial downturn cleared liquidity pockets around $1.095 and $1.08, likely sweeping out long positions that had clustered just below those levels with tight stop-loss orders. After those supports gave way, price dropped quickly toward $1.06 as more leveraged longs were forced to exit, adding to selling pressure and driving a classic cascade effect.
XRP is now trading near another dense band of liquidity between $1.043 and $1.05. This area may act as a short-term cushion, at least on the first test, as both dip-buyers and short-covering flows can appear where liquidity is thickest. However, if price slices cleanly through this range with strong volume, the chart shows relatively little visible support until roughly $1.02.
Liquidity clusters could shape the next bounce
Interestingly, most of the larger remaining liquidity pools now sit above the current spot price. Notable concentrations appear near $1.062, $1.075 and $1.097, with the largest nearby cluster gathered just under the $1.10 handle.
These zones often behave like “magnets” during rebounds: if XRP begins to climb, traders may aim for levels where short positions are vulnerable, hoping forced buybacks will accelerate the move. On the other hand, the same areas can flip into strong resistance if existing holders use any rally into these bands as an opportunity to reduce risk or exit underwater positions.
For short-term traders, these levels provide clear tactical reference points: they mark likely battlegrounds between bulls attempting to engineer a squeeze and bears seeking to re‑enter or add to positions at better prices.
On-chain flows add to selling narrative
Part of the negative sentiment has been linked to large token transfers. Market commentary cited more than 150 million XRP moving from private wallets to centralized exchanges over the previous 48 hours. Such flows often raise concern because exchange deposits are frequently interpreted as a sign that holders are preparing to sell.
However, without precise transaction identifiers or labeled wallets, these transfers should be treated as a potential catalyst rather than definitive proof that all of the moved tokens were immediately liquidated. Some of the volume could be related to market-making operations, internal rebalancing, or preparation for future trades rather than outright spot selling.
Still, when such sizeable transfers occur in the middle of a fragile technical backdrop, they can reinforce bearish narratives and discourage would‑be buyers from stepping in aggressively.
Daily chart: Bollinger Bands underline strong downside momentum
Zooming out to the daily timeframe, XRP’s close below the lower Bollinger Band, which recently sat near $1.0538, underlines the strength of the current bearish push. A daily close outside the bands typically signals an unusually strong directional move and, in this case, confirms that downside momentum has outpaced the volatility envelope calculated over the prior period.
At the same time, trading beyond the lower band also tends to increase the likelihood of a short-term mean‑reversion bounce. The midpoint of the Bollinger Bands, currently near $1.0981, aligns closely with one of the most significant nearby liquidity clusters. A recovery back above this midline would bring XRP back into its recent trading range and start to neutralize the most aggressive part of the selloff.
The upper band, by contrast, is far higher, around $1.1423. XRP would need to reclaim and hold above that area before the daily trend could be considered meaningfully improved and before the prevailing pattern of lower highs, in place since May, begins to break.
Money flow and MACD confirm sellers remain in charge
Other trend and volume indicators back the bearish case. On the daily chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at -0.12, a negative reading that signals distribution: across the indicator’s 20‑day lookback window, selling pressure has outweighed accumulation. Sustained negative CMF typically points to larger players reducing exposure rather than building long-term positions.
On the 4‑hour chart, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator remains firmly in bearish territory. The MACD line has dropped to around -0.0125, below its signal line at roughly -0.0072, while the histogram sits at -0.0052. This configuration indicates that downward momentum is still dominant and that any rallies so far have lacked the strength to flip the short-term trend.
For traders waiting on a more convincing shift in sentiment, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4‑hour or daily chart-combined with improving money flow-would be a more reliable sign that the worst of the selling might be behind the market.
Key levels: support and resistance to watch
In the immediate term, technical traders are watching the $1.043-$1.05 band as first-line support. Below that, potential downside targets lie near $1.02 and the psychological $1.00 mark. A clean break and daily close under $1.00 would be a psychologically significant event and could invite another wave of selling, particularly from traders who view the loss of a round-number level as a trend confirmation.
On the upside, initial resistance sits near $1.054, the former neckline of the double-top pattern. Regaining this level is a necessary first step for bulls. Above that, further resistance appears around $1.075 and $1.098, followed by the recent rejection zone in the $1.11 area. Each of these levels corresponds either to prior swing highs or to areas where liquidity has previously clustered, making them likely points of contention between buyers and sellers.
Macro headwinds: risk-off mood and Fed uncertainty
The weakness in XRP is not happening in isolation. Its decline has overlapped with a broader wave of risk reduction across global markets. Asian equities, in particular, have come under heavy pressure, with South Korea’s Kospi index plunging 10.84% in one session-its steepest fall in five months-after sharp losses in major technology names such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
This regional selloff has rippled through other Asian markets and has pushed investors globally toward more defensive positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting. When volatility climbs and uncertainty around interest rates and economic growth picks up, traders often reduce exposure first in their most speculative assets. Altcoins like XRP typically fall into that category, making them more vulnerable when risk appetite evaporates.
Policy setbacks weigh on crypto sentiment
Crypto markets have also had to digest a setback on the regulatory front in the United States. Senate leaders temporarily shelved consideration of the Digital Asset Market Structure bill, a piece of proposed legislation that had been watched closely by industry participants hoping for clearer rules on trading, custody, and registration requirements.
The delay does not end the legislative effort, but it adds another layer of uncertainty for investors trying to gauge how the regulatory landscape will evolve. When rules of the game appear in flux and timelines become more uncertain, some institutional and retail market participants prefer to step back or limit new allocations, particularly to assets perceived as higher risk.
For XRP, which has already navigated previous legal and regulatory challenges, this sort of policy hesitation can act as an additional drag on sentiment at a time when the technical picture is already leaning bearish.
What could shift the narrative for XRP?
Despite the current pressure, several developments could help stabilize or improve the outlook for XRP over the coming days and weeks:
– Technical stabilization: A successful defense of the $1.02-$1.00 region, followed by a series of higher lows on the 4‑hour chart and a recovery above $1.10, would suggest that sellers are losing control. A move back inside the Bollinger Bands and a bullish MACD crossover would further support this case.
– Short-covering rallies: If price starts to climb toward the liquidity clusters just above the market, particularly near $1.075 and $1.097, trapped short positions could be squeezed, potentially fueling a sharper rebound than fundamentals alone might suggest.
– Improved macro backdrop: A more dovish message from the Federal Reserve or signs that global equity markets are stabilizing could help restore risk appetite. In such an environment, capital often flows back toward higher-beta assets, including altcoins.
– Clearer regulatory signals: Progress on regulatory frameworks or more constructive guidance from policymakers-either in the United States or other major jurisdictions-could reduce uncertainty and encourage longer-term investors to re-engage with the sector.
Trading considerations for market participants
For active traders, the current environment is characterized by high volatility and fast-moving intraday swings. Careful risk management is essential: position sizing, well-placed stop-loss levels, and clear invalidation points can help prevent a single adverse move from doing disproportionate damage to a portfolio.
Short-term players may look to trade bounces from oversold conditions, targeting liquidity clusters and resistance levels as potential exit points. Longer-term holders, by contrast, may focus less on minute-to-minute fluctuations and more on whether XRP can maintain its broader support zones and eventually overcome the pattern of lower highs that has defined the chart since May.
In any case, with XRP hovering just above the critical $1 level and technical indicators still heavily tilted toward the bears, the next few sessions are likely to be pivotal in determining whether this latest drop is merely another swing within a broader range or the start of a deeper leg lower.