Multicoin Capital backs $319 HYPE target despite major risk warnings
Multicoin Capital is doubling down on Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, forecasting a price of $319 by 2028, even as it flags substantial structural, regulatory, and technical risks that could derail the thesis.
In a newly published research report, the firm outlines a base-case scenario in which HYPE appreciates roughly fivefold from its current level near $64. The projection rests on Hyperliquid generating around $8 billion in annual earnings by 2028 and the token trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.
The investment firm also revealed that it started building a position in HYPE in February, and that the token has since grown into one of the largest holdings in its liquid fund. To mitigate concerns about front-running or short-term trading around its own research, Multicoin says it has implemented a three-day no-trade window in HYPE after releasing the report.
Hyperliquid’s 2025 growth underpins Multicoin’s conviction
A major driver behind Multicoin’s bullish stance is Hyperliquid’s rapid expansion during 2025. According to the report, the decentralized derivatives exchange produced about $873 million in revenue on roughly $2.9 trillion in trading volume over the period.
User adoption accelerated as well. Hyperliquid’s user base increased from approximately 301,000 to 923,000 in that time, nearly tripling in size. Open interest on the platform also climbed from around $2 billion to $6 billion, indicating deeper market participation and a growing pool of active traders.
Current figures cited by Multicoin paint a picture of a protocol that has seized a commanding position in its niche. Hyperliquid is now estimated to control more than 59% of the open interest in decentralized perpetual futures markets. In absolute terms, its open interest has reached about $9.6 billion, surpassing the combined total of its largest on-chain competitors.
Closing the gap with centralized exchanges
Multicoin argues that Hyperliquid is not simply dominating decentralized rivals; it is also increasingly competitive with top centralized exchanges. The report notes that Hyperliquid’s monthly perpetual futures trading volume now stands at roughly 17% of Binance’s, while its open interest is around 21% of Binance’s corresponding figure.
The firm explicitly compares this trajectory to the early high-growth phase of Binance itself, implying that Hyperliquid may be at a similar inflection point-albeit in a fundamentally different, on-chain structure. For Multicoin, this convergence between decentralized and centralized market share is a core element of the long-term bull case.
HIP-3 and the expansion into real-world assets
Another cornerstone of the thesis is HIP-3, a major protocol upgrade that enables third-party teams to create perpetual markets for a wide range of off-chain assets, including stocks, commodities, and major equity indices.
Multicoin highlights that open interest tied to real-world assets on Hyperliquid has already surpassed $2.9 billion. One of the headline products, an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract, reportedly generated more than $100 million in average daily trading volume during its first week of trading.
By opening the door to asset classes traditionally confined to regulated, off-chain venues, Hyperliquid aims to position itself as a cross-asset trading hub. This move into tokenized or synthetic real-world assets is central to Multicoin’s view that Hyperliquid can capture a much larger slice of global derivatives activity.
From niche DEX to “everything exchange”
Looking ahead, Multicoin expects a broader product suite to significantly expand Hyperliquid’s revenue potential. The report points to several anticipated growth vectors over the coming years:
– On-chain options markets built on Hyperliquid’s infrastructure
– Prediction markets leveraging its liquidity and risk engine
– Portfolio margining tools that unify risk across multiple positions and asset classes
– Deeper integration with applications built on HyperEVM, Hyperliquid’s smart contract environment
If these components develop as expected, Multicoin believes Hyperliquid could evolve into what it calls an “everything exchange” – an always-on venue for trading multiple asset classes, entirely on-chain, with a seamless user experience akin to top centralized platforms.
The thesis hinges on the idea that as more financial activity migrates to programmable, transparent infrastructure, a protocol capable of handling both crypto-native and traditional assets could become a central liquidity node in the broader financial system.
Value capture: why Multicoin thinks HYPE can justify a higher valuation
Beyond growth metrics and product roadmaps, Multicoin emphasizes how effectively Hyperliquid channels value back to HYPE holders. According to the report, roughly 99% of the protocol’s revenue is used to repurchase HYPE on the market, and those tokens are then effectively taken out of circulation.
This buyback-and-burn style mechanism creates a strong link between protocol usage and token supply dynamics. As trading volume and fees increase, more HYPE is removed from the market, potentially exerting upward pressure on price if demand holds or continues to grow.
Multicoin further notes that Hyperliquid has never raised outside venture capital and does not operate with a separate equity layer. In economic terms, this means there is no competing class of shareholders siphoning off value. Instead, the protocol’s earnings are structured to flow directly to HYPE holders, which Multicoin argues makes the token a purer claim on the platform’s cash flows compared with many other crypto projects.
How HYPE’s current valuation stacks up
Using data from the report, Hyperliquid has generated approximately $869 million in trailing earnings attributable to HYPE holders. With the token price around $63 at the time of analysis, Multicoin calculates that HYPE trades at roughly 36 times trailing earnings.
After adjusting for revenue tied to Hyperliquid’s agreement involving Coinbase and USDC, the effective multiple declines to about 30 times. For Multicoin, these figures support the view that, given the protocol’s growth rate and market share, current valuation multiples are reasonable relative to the $319 target over a multiyear horizon.
However, such multiples may be viewed as rich in a downturn or if growth slows materially. The thesis assumes that Hyperliquid can continue scaling volumes and revenues at a pace sufficient to justify or expand on those earnings multiples.
Key risks that could undermine the $319 forecast
Despite its confidence, Multicoin is explicit that the path to $319 is far from guaranteed. The report outlines several major risk categories that could significantly impair the investment case.
First, decentralization remains an unresolved challenge. If critical components of the protocol’s infrastructure, governance, or operations are perceived as too centralized, Hyperliquid could face both reputational and regulatory pressure. Any indication that key functions are controlled by a small group could weaken the narrative of a resilient, censorship-resistant derivatives venue.
Second, regulatory uncertainty looms large. Hyperliquid operates at the intersection of crypto, derivatives, and, increasingly, tokenized real-world assets-all areas that attract intense regulatory scrutiny. Future policy shifts, enforcement actions, or new classification frameworks could restrict access to users in major jurisdictions, limit available products, or force structural changes that dampen growth and profitability.
Third, governance issues could pose long-term risks. As Hyperliquid’s ecosystem expands, misaligned incentives, contentious governance decisions, or poorly designed voting mechanisms could lead to suboptimal outcomes or community fractures. For a protocol positioning itself as a core financial venue, governance reliability is critical.
Fourth, competition is intensifying. Both decentralized and centralized platforms are racing to capture the same derivatives and real-world asset markets. If a rival exchange offers superior liquidity, more innovative products, better user experience, or stronger regulatory positioning, Hyperliquid’s market share and margins could come under pressure.
Finally, the report points to potential bad debt as a structural risk. Complex derivatives platforms rely on robust risk engines and liquidation systems. In periods of extreme volatility, failures in these systems can lead to undercollateralized positions and systemic losses. A major event of this kind could damage Hyperliquid’s balance sheet, reputation, and user trust.
Technical signals tell a more cautious short‑term story
While Multicoin’s fundamental view is clearly bullish over a several-year horizon, the near-term technical picture for HYPE is more subdued.
On the four-hour chart, the token is forming what appears to be a bearish double-top structure, with a neckline around the $52.7 support zone. If sellers succeed in driving the price below that level and the breakdown is confirmed with volume, the measured move from the pattern implies a downside target in the vicinity of $28.5.
Such a move would represent a substantial drawdown from current prices, highlighting the tension between long-term fundamental optimism and short-term market structure risks. For traders and investors, it underscores the importance of separating cyclical price patterns from multi-year adoption and earnings narratives.
How the “everything exchange” vision could play out
If Hyperliquid realizes Multicoin’s “everything exchange” vision, the platform could evolve into a hub where traders access crypto perpetuals, equity index perps, commodities, individual stocks, options, and prediction markets from a single on-chain interface. Around-the-clock market access, programmable strategies via smart contracts, and integrated portfolio margining could make it a compelling alternative to traditional brokerages and centralized exchanges.
In practice, achieving this will require not just product launches, but robust liquidity, deep risk management, and a UX layer that feels familiar to professional traders. Integrations with other on-chain applications built on HyperEVM could further embed Hyperliquid as infrastructure rather than just another standalone exchange.
If successful, the earnings base underpinning HYPE could expand far beyond today’s crypto-native volumes, which is the core logic behind Multicoin’s $8 billion earnings estimate for 2028.
What could invalidate the thesis
Equally important is understanding what would invalidate or materially weaken Multicoin’s outlook. A combination of the following developments would likely challenge the $319 target:
– A significant, lasting loss of market share to competing DEXs or CEXs
– Regulatory restrictions that curtail access for major user segments or prohibit key products
– Failure to gain meaningful traction with real-world asset markets or options trading
– Governance failures that cause forks, user exodus, or strategic paralysis
– Major risk management incidents that result in persistent bad debt or insolvency fears
If Hyperliquid’s growth plateaus, its earnings fail to approach the projected $8 billion, or its ecosystem narrative stalls, the justification for a 20x earnings multiple-and a fivefold price increase-would likely erode.
Balancing upside potential and structural risk
The contrast at the heart of Multicoin’s report is stark: on one hand, a rapidly growing derivatives protocol with dominant on-chain market share, strong revenue, and an aggressive expansion plan into real-world assets; on the other, heavy reliance on unproven regulatory pathways, complex risk management, and a still-forming governance structure.
For observers, the HYPE story encapsulates a broader tension in crypto markets: the possibility that on-chain platforms can challenge traditional financial infrastructure, set against the reality that these systems must operate within legal, technical, and economic constraints that are still evolving.
Educational note
The figures, targets, and projections cited in the report are speculative and depend on numerous assumptions about user growth, market conditions, product adoption, and regulatory developments. The information above is provided for educational and analytical purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, legal, or investment advice.