Coinbase takes lead in World Cup‑driven prediction market boom
Bernstein now projects that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could generate between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional prediction market volume, putting Coinbase among the clearest winners of this fast-emerging segment. With event-based trading already becoming a core pillar of its strategy, the exchange is positioned to capture a sizeable share of the surge in activity expected around the tournament.
World Cup set to supercharge event-based trading
The 2026 World Cup will be the largest in history, with 104 matches spread across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Bernstein estimates that the expanded format alone could add more than $3 billion in extra sports betting handle, while simultaneously driving billions of dollars in fresh prediction market trading as fans speculate on outcomes ranging from match results to player performance and tournament milestones.
FIFA expects around 6 billion people to tune in to the event worldwide, up from roughly 5 billion in 2022. This massive global audience, combined with more games and more distinct betting and trading opportunities, creates ideal conditions for prediction market platforms to grow. Importantly, the tournament falls during a season that is usually one of the slowest for traditional online sports betting, which Bernstein believes gives event-based trading venues a rare chance to stand out and attract new users.
Coinbase quickly builds a prediction market business
Analysts at Bernstein highlight Coinbase as one of the main beneficiaries of this shift. The company only recently entered the prediction market space but has moved quickly. By March, just months after launch, Coinbase’s event-based trading business had already surpassed an annualized revenue run rate of $100 million, indicating strong early traction.
Coinbase’s entry into prediction markets was enabled by a partnership with Kalshi, a regulated platform focused on event contracts. Through this tie-up, users in all 50 U.S. states can trade on outcomes across sports, politics, economics, culture, and other real-world events. The World Cup, with its dense calendar of high-stakes matches and global attention, is likely to become one of the flagship use cases for this type of product.
Beyond revenue, prediction markets serve a strategic function for Coinbase: they diversify the company’s income beyond spot crypto trading, which is notoriously cyclical and tightly linked to digital asset price swings. Event-driven contracts, especially around sports, can help smooth out those cycles by tapping into a different, often more stable, demand pattern.
Derivatives expansion deepens Coinbase’s trading moat
At the same time, Coinbase is aggressively expanding its derivatives footprint. In June, the company received approval to offer U.S. customers access to global crypto perpetual futures markets. Chief executive Brian Armstrong framed the move as a turning point, arguing that Coinbase is now the first U.S.-based platform able to connect local users directly to global perpetual futures liquidity.
Armstrong has long claimed that regulatory ambiguity in the United States forced much of the crypto derivatives industry offshore, while U.S. traders continued to seek those products through foreign platforms. With the new structure, Coinbase plans to route American users to deep liquidity via Deribit, the derivatives exchange it acquired earlier this year for $2.9 billion.
This step significantly strengthens Coinbase’s derivatives offering just as it opens new revenue lines in prediction markets. Together, these businesses create a broader event- and volatility-driven trading ecosystem, positioning the company as a one-stop shop for speculation and hedging across both crypto and real-world events.
AI agents bring automation to event-driven trading
Coinbase is also betting that the future of markets will be increasingly automated. The company recently rolled out Coinbase for Agents, a platform that allows AI systems to execute financial actions on behalf of users. After granting permission, customers can link AI agents powered by models such as ChatGPT or Claude to their accounts.
These agents can monitor markets, track positions, rebalance portfolios, and place trades based on predefined conditions and rules. While the first release focuses on crypto transactions, Coinbase has stated that it plans to extend support to stocks and prediction markets later on. That would enable automated participation in event-based contracts: for example, an AI agent could continuously price probabilities for World Cup match outcomes and adjust positions in real time as new information arrives.
If implemented well, this could significantly lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated event trading strategies, allowing retail traders to benefit from tools previously reserved for professional desks and hedge funds.
Sports now dominate prediction market activity
Industry data confirms that sports are quickly becoming the backbone of prediction markets. An April study by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that monthly prediction market trading volumes reached almost $26 billion, with more than 80% of participants coming from the retail segment. Rather than appearing only around major one-off events such as elections, users are now staying active across recurring categories.
Sports accounted for over 39% of total prediction market volume in March, making it the single largest category on many platforms. This share is likely to rise further as global tournaments like the World Cup, the Olympics, and major regional leagues tap into a culture of continuous fandom and daily speculation.
For Coinbase, this trend reinforces the logic of linking prediction markets with its existing crypto, derivatives, and soon-to-be AI offerings. A fan who arrives to trade World Cup outcomes can easily be funneled to other products, while existing crypto traders gain new ways to deploy capital during quieter digital asset cycles.
Rising competition: Robinhood and others join the race
Coinbase is not alone in chasing this opportunity. Bernstein expects Robinhood to be another key beneficiary of the World Cup-driven boom as it launches Rothera, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse. The analysts estimate that Robinhood could generate around $586 million in prediction market revenue in 2026 alone.
Competition among regulated platforms matters because it will shape fee levels, product innovation, and user experience standards. Coinbase’s early revenue numbers show strong demand, but the company will need to keep improving liquidity, contract variety, and user tools if it wants to maintain an edge against fast-moving rivals like Robinhood and specialized event markets.
Regulatory stance turning more favorable for sports contracts
Regulation has always been a key uncertainty for prediction markets in the United States. On that front, the environment is showing signs of improvement-particularly for sports-related contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently released draft rules indicating that sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest, even though federal law formally classifies them as gaming products.
This shift in tone suggests regulators are increasingly willing to treat at least some prediction markets as legitimate financial instruments rather than pure gambling. For exchanges like Coinbase, clear rules around what is and is not permitted could unlock more product innovation, longer contract lists, and ultimately larger and more liquid markets.
However, political and election contracts remain more controversial. Platforms will likely need to navigate a patchwork of rules that differentiate between entertainment, information, and speculative use, especially in sensitive areas like politics and national security.
Why the World Cup is a perfect catalyst for prediction markets
The World Cup offers a uniquely powerful combination of factors that make it ideal for prediction markets:
– Global, passionate fanbase that follows every game closely
– High volume of discrete events: matches, goals, cards, injuries, group standings
– Clear, time-bound outcomes with verifiable results
– Rich data and analytics for traders to build models and strategies
– Constant news flow that can move perceived probabilities and prices
This structure naturally lends itself to event contracts. A trader might buy positions on which teams advance from the group stage, how many goals a star player will score, or the likelihood of an underdog upset. As the tournament progresses, these probabilities shift with every goal, substitution, or piece of breaking news-creating continuous trading opportunities.
Prediction markets can also extend beyond pure sports performance. Contracts could reference television viewership totals, sponsorship milestones, or host city metrics, provided they comply with the regulatory framework. For Coinbase, the World Cup becomes not just a sports event but a multi-week laboratory to showcase what modern event trading can look like at scale.
How this reshapes Coinbase’s business model
Taken together, prediction markets, derivatives expansion, and AI-driven automation are reshaping Coinbase from a primarily spot crypto exchange into a diversified trading and financial infrastructure company. The World Cup acts as a high-visibility stress test of this transformation.
If Coinbase succeeds in capturing a meaningful share of World Cup-related prediction volume, it strengthens three pillars at once:
1. Revenue diversification – Earnings become less dependent on crypto bull/bear cycles.
2. User growth and retention – Sports fans and casual speculators discover the platform through World Cup markets and may stay for other products.
3. Product integration – Prediction markets, futures, and AI execution agents create a sticky ecosystem where different tools reinforce each other.
This strategic shift is especially important as competition in spot crypto intensifies and fees compress across the industry.
The broader future of prediction markets after 2026
While the 2026 World Cup is a central catalyst, its impact may extend well beyond the tournament itself. If millions of users get comfortable trading event contracts during the World Cup, many of them are likely to remain active in other categories-politics, macroeconomic releases, entertainment awards, or even climate-related events.
In that scenario, the World Cup becomes a gateway moment that normalizes prediction markets as a mainstream financial product rather than a niche experiment. Coinbase’s early push into this area, supported by regulatory partnerships, derivatives scale, and AI tooling, is a bet that event-based trading will become a permanent fixture of the financial landscape, not just a temporary sideshow attached to a single tournament.
For now, the message from analysts is clear: the combination of a record-breaking World Cup, shifting regulation, and rapid platform innovation has turned prediction markets into one of the most closely watched growth fronts in modern finance-and Coinbase is currently leading that race.