Bitcoin price squeezes the top of its ascending channel – is $74K next?
Bitcoin is changing hands near $72,330 on April 13, gently higher on the 4‑hour chart and pressing directly against the upper boundary of a well‑defined ascending channel that has been building since late March. That channel began forming from the pullback lows around $65,000 and has since guided a series of higher highs and higher lows, framing the current uptrend.
Behind the move stands steady structural demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past week, these products absorbed a net $786 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone pulling in $612 million across five trading sessions. That consistent institutional bid has been a key driver keeping price pinned near the channel high and has underpinned the latest attempt to extend the rally.
Trend structure: bullish moving average ribbon supports the move
On the 4‑hour timeframe, the moving average ribbon reflects a constructive, recovering trend:
– 20‑period SMA sits at $72,056
– 50‑period SMA at $70,980
– 100‑period SMA at $69,060
– 200‑period SMA at $69,877
All four moving averages are stacked in classic bullish order beneath spot price, confirming that momentum has gradually shifted back in favor of buyers since the March lows. The curve of the MA ribbon shows a transition from consolidation into an established uptrend, with each pullback in recent sessions finding support at or above one of these levels.
The 4‑hour MACD histogram is still slightly negative at around -107.94, which injects a note of caution. However, that negative reading has been shrinking over recent candles, signaling that downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. In other words, the market is not yet in full breakout mode, but it is rotating from a corrective phase into a potential continuation higher – provided volume materializes on any push through resistance.
Ascending channel: $72.6K as the immediate ceiling
Since late March, Bitcoin has carved out a textbook ascending channel on the 4‑hour chart. Each dip from resistance has been met with higher lows, starting from the $65,000 region, and each subsequent rally has climbed closer to the channel’s upper trendline. The latest session high around $72,600 aligns almost perfectly with that upper boundary, making it the critical short‑term ceiling.
The lower side of the channel now converges with the psychologically pivotal $70,000 area. Throughout this entire move, $70,000 has acted as the structural “floor” – a region where buy interest has reliably stepped in to defend the trend. So long as price respects this threshold on a daily closing basis, the ascending channel remains valid and the bullish structure intact.
MACD and volume: what needs to happen for a clean breakout
The still‑negative MACD histogram tells traders not to ignore the risk of another rejection at resistance. The 4‑hour momentum cross to the upside has not been fully confirmed, which means that a strong, sustained breakout above $72,600 will likely require a notable uptick in trading volume and ETF demand.
Recent price action supports this caution. Bitcoin had to recover from a sharp gap‑down at the start of the week, triggered by geopolitical tensions: the breakdown of U.S.-Iran peace efforts and an order relating to the Strait of Hormuz weighed on risk assets, briefly pushing BTC down to about $70,741 at the Monday open. The quick intraday rebound back into the channel suggests dip‑buyers remain active, but the market still needs a convincing catalyst to propel it decisively through resistance.
Key support and resistance levels
The near‑term technical map is relatively clean:
– Immediate resistance:
– $72,600: upper ascending channel trendline and current session high.
– A confirmed 4‑hour close above this level would mark a breakout from the channel’s top.
– Upside targets if $72.6K breaks:
– $74,000: first meaningful resistance once the channel is cleared, and a natural round‑number magnet for price.
– $76,000: extended target, aligning with the neckline of a larger double‑bottom formation on the daily chart. A move toward this zone would signal that the broader market structure is transitioning from consolidation into a renewed, medium‑term bullish phase.
– Immediate supports:
– $72,056 (20‑SMA, 4H): first intraday support. A 4‑hour close below this level suggests momentum is cooling.
– $70,980 (50‑SMA, 4H): secondary support that has helped define the mid‑channel “equator” in recent sessions.
– $70,000: critical structural floor and lower trendline zone of the ascending channel.
– Deeper support and invalidation:
– $69,060: next downside level if $70,000 gives way, near the 100‑SMA on the 4‑hour chart.
– A daily close below $70,000 would invalidate the current ascending channel and flip the near‑term thesis from constructive to bearish.
ETF demand: institutional bid anchors price near the highs
The macro structure of this move cannot be understood without the backdrop of spot ETF flows. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $786 million in net inflows, even as price remains below its peak. BlackRock’s IBIT dominated these inflows, accounting for $612 million across five trading days.
IBIT now holds roughly 790,808 BTC, with an estimated value of about $57.2 billion. Year‑to‑date, it has seen around $1.5 billion in net inflows despite Bitcoin having pulled back about 26% from its 2026 peak near $97,000. This combination – lower spot price relative to the peak, but steady institutional accumulation – suggests that larger players perceive current levels as attractive entry points or averaging zones.
A noteworthy data point came on April 9, when a single trading session saw $358 million in net inflows into spot BTC ETFs, reversing two days of prior outflows. IBIT contributed $269 million of that total on its own. That one‑day reversal in flows helped confirm that demand from institutions and larger allocators has not dried up; instead, they appear to be selectively adding on weakness or during periods of macro clarity.
Macro and geopolitical headwinds into FOMC
Despite the supportive ETF backdrop, Bitcoin is wrestling with a complicated macro environment. The latest consumer price index report showed headline U.S. inflation rising to 3.3% in March, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain sticky. Higher‑than‑expected inflation tends to reduce the odds of aggressive rate cuts and can weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Geopolitical tensions have added further volatility. The collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks and heightened friction around key energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, have increased uncertainty across global markets. For Bitcoin, this has translated into short‑term risk‑off moves followed by fast recoveries as dip buyers step in, but it has also made trend continuation less linear and more reactive to headlines.
The next major macro waypoint is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for April 29. Market‑implied probabilities for a rate cut have risen noticeably, climbing from around 11.8% a week ago to about 29.8% following a temporary ceasefire announcement on April 9. That shift has provided a modest monetary tailwind, helping to explain both the speed and persistence of institutional ETF accumulation around current price levels.
Can Bitcoin realistically break toward $74K from here?
From a purely technical perspective, the setup for a push toward $74,000 is clear but conditional. Bulls need:
1. A decisive 4‑hour close above $72,600 to confirm a breakout from the ascending channel.
2. Follow‑through buying, ideally supported by renewed ETF inflows and higher spot volume.
3. Maintenance of the $70,000-$71,000 zone as a support area on any intraday retest.
If these conditions are met, $74,000 becomes the natural next waypoint, with $76,000 as a credible extension target aligned with the daily double‑bottom neckline. In this scenario, the current channel would be viewed not as the end of the move, but as a consolidation platform before a larger leg higher.
What if $72.6K rejects and $70K fails?
Traders must also be prepared for the opposite outcome. A rejection from $72,600 without a confirmed breakout, combined with a break below the 20‑SMA on the 4‑hour chart, would likely shift short‑term sentiment back to caution. If selling then drives a daily close below $70,000, the ascending channel thesis breaks down, and attention turns to deeper supports.
Under that bearish scenario:
– The first key downside area would be near $69,060, in line with the 100‑SMA.
– A failure to hold that level could push price into a broader consolidation range or a more pronounced correction, especially if ETF inflows stall or reverse and macro data surprise to the upside on inflation or rates.
Such a breakdown would not necessarily end the longer‑term bull market, but it would likely extend the consolidation phase and delay any attempt to reclaim the 2026 peak near $97,000.
How traders and investors might approach this zone
For short‑term traders, the $72,600-$70,000 range is the crucial battlefield:
– Aggressive bulls may look to buy dips toward the 20‑ or 50‑SMA with stops below $70,000, aiming for a breakout toward $74,000-$76,000.
– More cautious participants might wait for a clear 4‑hour or daily close above $72,600 before entering, accepting a less favorable entry in exchange for higher confirmation.
Longer‑horizon investors tend to view the picture differently. The combination of sustained ETF inflows, relatively moderate drawdown from the all‑time high, and approaching macro events like the FOMC encourages a “phased allocation” mindset. Rather than trying to time the exact breakout level, they may focus on building exposure gradually while $70,000 continues to hold on a closing basis, and reassessing only if that structural floor decisively breaks.
Sentiment and positioning around the current range
Market sentiment around the current price band is cautiously optimistic. The sustained defense of $70,000, the bullish alignment of the moving averages, and the return of ETF inflows after brief outflow periods all point to an underlying bid. At the same time, the negative but improving MACD reading and the sensitivity to geopolitical and inflation data remind participants that this is still a contested zone, not an unchallenged breakout.
Derivatives positioning often becomes important in such tight ranges. If funding rates and open interest begin to spike as price approaches $72,600, a crowded long side could raise the risk of a short‑term shakeout before any sustainable move higher. Conversely, a breakout accompanied by moderate funding and rising spot volumes is typically healthier and more durable.
Outlook: pivotal days ahead for the $74K question
In the near term, the question of whether Bitcoin can break out of its ascending channel toward $74,000 hinges on three interacting forces:
– Technical structure around $72,600 resistance and $70,000 support.
– The persistence of ETF inflows and broader institutional interest.
– Incoming macro signals from inflation data, geopolitical developments, and the approaching FOMC meeting.
If the ascending channel holds and bulls secure a 4‑hour close above $72,600, the path to $74,000 appears technically open, with $76,000 as the next logical extension. A decisive loss of $70,000 on a daily closing basis, however, would invalidate the current pattern and shift the short‑term outlook toward corrective downside rather than breakout continuation.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a constructive but fragile uptrend – pressing against the ceiling of its channel and waiting for a catalyst strong enough to decide whether the next stop is $74,000 or a deeper test of lower support.