XRP price on the brink: can ETFs and on-chain growth fuel a reversal?
The XRP market is approaching a critical inflection point. After a sharp correction, the token is clinging to a long-standing support area that has repeatedly prevented deeper losses since December. Whether this level holds or gives way is likely to define the next major trend for XRP.
From its yearly peak, Ripple’s native token has slid to a low of $1.8430, erasing around 47% from its 2025 high. As a result, XRP’s market capitalization has shrunk from nearly $200 billion to about $115 billion. This contraction mirrors the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the majority of altcoins have collectively lost over $1.2 trillion in value in recent months.
Despite this bearish backdrop, XRP is not lacking in potential upside triggers. One of the most significant is the surprising resilience of demand from US-based investors, reflected in the early performance of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since their launch, XRP ETFs have recorded consistent daily inflows, suggesting that institutional and retail investors alike are using the pullback as an opportunity to build exposure.
Data indicates that the Canary and Bitwise XRP ETFs have already attracted around $422 million in inflows, with total net assets of roughly $384 million. While this is still a modest 0.33% of XRP’s total market capitalization, it is a notable achievement for a product that is still in its infancy. The trend becomes even more compelling once you factor in the next wave of investment vehicles that is set to arrive.
Several major asset managers, including Franklin Templeton and Grayscale, are preparing to bring their own XRP ETFs to market. As more issuers join, XRP is likely to benefit from a network effect similar to what has been observed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, where multiple products compete on fees, liquidity, and marketing while collectively expanding the investor base.
To put the current numbers into perspective, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs account for roughly 5% to 6.5% of their respective circulating market caps. If XRP were to reach just the lower bound of that range—around 5%—ETF-held XRP could represent more than $5.7 billion in net assets. That level of structured, regulated demand would not guarantee a bull market, but it would place a persistent bid under the market and potentially dampen extreme downside volatility.
Another emerging catalyst is the momentum behind Ripple’s USD stablecoin. The stablecoin recently surpassed a $1 billion market capitalization, with over $300 million circulating on the XRP Ledger. This is more than a vanity metric: stablecoins are often the backbone of on-chain activity, enabling efficient trading, lending, payments, and DeFi applications.
As the Ripple USD stablecoin becomes more deeply integrated into exchanges, wallets, and cross-border payment flows, it can drive organic demand for XRP in several ways. First, increased transactional activity on the XRP Ledger can make XRP more attractive as a liquidity and bridge asset. Second, a thriving stablecoin ecosystem may encourage developers to build additional applications and services on XRP infrastructure, increasing the network’s economic gravity over time. Finally, real-world payment and settlement use cases can help differentiate XRP from speculative-only tokens, supporting a more durable valuation floor.
Leverage dynamics add another layer to the current setup. Open interest in XRP futures has slid to about $3.3 billion, down sharply from more than $10 billion just a few months ago. This contraction in derivatives exposure suggests that many leveraged positions—both long and short—have been flushed out. Historically, periods of low leverage following a major drawdown often precede more sustainable, less erratic uptrends, as price action is driven more by spot demand than by forced liquidations.
From a technical standpoint, the three-day XRP chart paints a picture of a market that has already endured substantial damage but may be nearing exhaustion on the downside. Over the past several months, price has repeatedly tested the same support region around $1.8430, failing each time to establish a convincing breakdown. This area has now become a clear “make-or-break” zone.
Technically, XRP has broken below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from its recent swing low to high, as well as slipping under both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. These developments typically signal a bearish intermediate trend and increase the risk of further downside if support fails. At the same time, the proximity to an established floor means risk-reward is becoming more defined for both bulls and bears.
If XRP decisively closes below $1.8430 on high volume, it would validate a double-top pattern with resistance at $3.4072, a structure often associated with medium- to long-term trend reversals. Confirmation of that pattern would open the door to a deeper correction, with $1.50 emerging as a logical downside target based on prior consolidation zones and Fibonacci projections.
However, as long as $1.8430 holds, the market has room to stage a relief rally or even a trend reversal. A bounce from this region could propel XRP back toward the psychologically important $2.50 level, which also aligns with previous support and resistance clusters. Reclaiming that zone and turning it into support would be an early signal that bulls are regaining control.
For traders, this environment offers both opportunity and trap potential. Aggressive participants may view the current support as a favorable entry point, placing tight invalidation levels just below $1.8430 to manage risk. More conservative traders might wait for confirmation—either a clear breakdown toward $1.50 or a convincing reclaim of key moving averages and resistance levels—before committing capital.
Investors with a longer time horizon may focus less on short-term chart patterns and more on structural shifts like ETF adoption, on-chain stablecoin activity, and regulatory clarity. If XRP ETFs continue to attract inflows while new products from established asset managers launch, it could gradually change how traditional finance allocators perceive XRP, moving it from a speculative fringe asset toward a recognized portfolio component.
At the same time, it is important to acknowledge the risks. ETF demand is not guaranteed to grow linearly; inflows can stall or reverse during periods of risk-off sentiment. Stablecoin progress, while promising, depends on regulatory tolerance and the ability of Ripple and its partners to expand real-world usage. Technically, a break of the current floor could trigger a wave of stop-loss selling and push prices quickly toward lower support zones.
Macro conditions also matter. If global liquidity tightens, risk assets—from equities to crypto—can experience simultaneous drawdowns regardless of their individual fundamentals. Under such circumstances, even strong growth in ETFs or on-chain metrics may struggle to offset selling pressure.
Looking ahead, the next few weeks could prove decisive. Approval and launch of new XRP ETFs, any fresh data on ETF flows, shifts in futures open interest, and updated figures for the Ripple USD stablecoin market cap will offer clues on whether fundamental demand is building beneath the surface. On the charts, traders will closely monitor whether XRP can defend $1.8430 or whether bears finally manage to force a breakdown.
In essence, XRP stands at a crossroads defined by the intersection of macro headwinds, emerging institutional demand, and key technical levels. If support holds and the ETF and stablecoin narratives continue to strengthen, the current zone may later be seen as an accumulation opportunity. If not, the market may need to reset at lower prices before a more durable recovery can take shape.