XRP exchange reserves lose $1.32B as price sinks below key moving averages
Over the past month, XRP has seen a sharp contraction in exchange-held reserves alongside a slide below important technical levels, painting a picture of thinner liquidity and a vulnerable, directionless market structure.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant cited by analysts, the aggregate value of XRP reserves on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges dropped from about $7.03 billion on November 10, 2025, to roughly $5.70 billion by December 10, 2025. That $1.32 billion decline represents an 18.83% reduction in just thirty days, signaling that a significant amount of XRP has left trading venues or been de-risked from active positions.
On November 10, XRP was changing hands near $2.50. Over the following weeks, exchange reserves showed a stepped pattern: a pronounced drawdown in early November, a modest recovery toward the end of the month, and then another wave of outflows in early December. This sequence suggests a period of active repositioning, with traders either moving coins into self-custody or trimming exposure as price action turned more uncertain.
By press time, XRP traded around $2.08, up about 0.6% over the last 24 hours but still roughly 5% lower on the week. The token has been struggling to defend the psychologically and technically important $2.00 region, even as broader market narratives remain dominated by risk-off behavior and cautious sentiment.
Thinner exchange reserves, thinner liquidity
A sustained drop in exchange reserves is typically interpreted in two main ways. On one hand, when coins are moved off exchanges into private wallets, it can indicate longer-term holding and reduced immediate sell pressure. On the other, the removal of liquidity from order books often increases the asset’s sensitivity to both buying and selling, making prices more volatile on relatively smaller flows.
In XRP’s case, analysts note that the reduction in reserves appears to have coincided with choppy, trendless price movement rather than a strong, one-directional rally. This suggests that the outflows are not exclusively a sign of confident accumulation but may also reflect a cautious environment in which traders are tightening risk and avoiding overexposure on centralized venues.
Fewer tokens sitting on exchanges can translate into wider spreads and thinner order books. Under such conditions, large market orders—whether buy or sell—have a more pronounced impact on price. The current backdrop, with XRP already under pressure from failing to reclaim key levels, heightens the risk that sudden bursts of activity could trigger sharp moves rather than orderly repricing.
Technical picture: price below 50- and 200-day SMAs
From a technical analysis standpoint, XRP is trading beneath both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which are widely viewed as barometers of short- to medium-term trend direction.
– The 50-day SMA currently sits near $2.30.
– The 200-day SMA is higher, around $2.62.
– Spot price stands at approximately $2.08.
When an asset trades below both these moving averages, technicians typically view that as a bearish to neutral setup. It implies that recent price action has been insufficient to regain momentum, and that the path of least resistance can lean lower unless strong buying appears to push the market back above these reference points.
The fact that XRP has not been able to reclaim even the 50-day SMA suggests subdued bullish conviction. Until the price can break and hold above $2.30, many swing traders and systematic strategies may treat rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than as confirmation of a new uptrend.
RSI hints at consolidation, not capitulation
Momentum metrics add nuance to this picture. XRP’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads about 47.18—just under the midpoint of the 0–100 scale. An RSI near 50 is generally considered neutral, indicating that the asset is neither strongly overbought nor oversold.
This neutral RSI has two implications:
1. No clear sign of panic selling.
An RSI well below 30 would imply capitulation or an oversold market that might be primed for a relief bounce. XRP’s current reading is far from that zone, suggesting that while the trend lacks strength, the market is not yet in full-blown distress.
2. Space for a directional move to develop.
Neutral momentum leaves room for either a bullish or bearish extension, depending on how flows evolve. If buying pressure intensifies and RSI climbs toward or above 50–60 while price reclaims the 50-day SMA, it would bolster the case for a rebound. Conversely, if selling resumes and RSI drifts down toward 40 or below, it could signal a renewed leg lower.
Analysts therefore see the current RSI as a marker of potential stabilization—provided that demand starts to emerge around current levels—but not as in itself a trigger for a sharp reversal.
XRP’s struggle with the $2 support zone
The broader context for these moves is XRP’s ongoing battle around the $2 level. This area has functioned as both psychological round-number support and an important reference point for market participants sizing risk.
Recent trading has shown that buyers are active near $2, attempting to defend this threshold. However, every bounce has so far failed to restore the price above the 50-day SMA, which would be an early sign that the worst of the selling pressure might be over. The inability to achieve a decisive close above that moving average leaves the market vulnerable to a breakdown if macro or crypto-wide sentiment takes another turn lower.
At the same time, the environment is not unilaterally negative. The report notes that U.S. spot exchange-traded funds tied to the broader crypto market have continued to see net inflows, even against a backdrop of bearish conditions. That indicates ongoing institutional and professional interest in digital assets as an asset class, though not necessarily focused on XRP specifically.
What shrinking reserves could mean for XRP holders
For XRP investors and traders, the 18.83% drop in exchange reserves over a single month raises a critical question: is this a constructive sign of accumulation, or a symptom of waning participation and growing fragility?
There are a few scenarios to consider:
– Bullish accumulation thesis:
If a large share of the withdrawn XRP is migrating to long-term storage, it could reduce immediate sell pressure and potentially lay the groundwork for a more robust rally when macro conditions improve. Under this scenario, the current neutral RSI and price hovering near support might be interpreted as a late-stage consolidation rather than the beginning of a deeper downtrend.
– Cautious de-risking thesis:
Alternatively, if outflows reflect traders and funds stepping back from XRP due to regulatory uncertainty, lack of a clear catalyst, or better opportunities elsewhere in the market, then thinner liquidity may simply increase the risk profile without providing the offsetting benefit of strong underlying demand.
In reality, the market often reflects a mix of both behaviors. Some participants are likely taking advantage of lower prices to accumulate off-exchange, while others are exiting positions or shifting capital to more favored assets.
Key levels to watch in the coming weeks
From a technical and liquidity perspective, several markers look particularly important for XRP in the near term:
– Support near $2.00:
A sustained break and daily close well below $2 could open the door to a deeper correction, especially if accompanied by further reserve declines and softening RSI.
– 50-day SMA at $2.30:
A recovery above this level, supported by rising volume, would be the first sign that bulls are regaining some control. It would also start to shift short-term trend metrics from bearish to more neutral.
– 200-day SMA at $2.62:
Regaining and holding above the 200-day SMA would be a stronger confirmation of a trend reversal, signaling that medium-term sentiment has turned more constructive.
– Exchange reserve trajectory:
Whether reserves continue to fall, stabilize, or begin to climb again will be closely watched. Stabilizing or gently rising reserves, paired with price strength, could indicate renewed trading interest rather than mere speculative hoarding or exit flows.
How traders and investors might adapt
Given the current mix of thinning liquidity, neutral momentum, and sub-trend pricing, market participants may consider more conservative positioning until clearer signals emerge.
Short-term traders often:
– Focus on well-defined support and resistance zones, such as $2.00 and $2.30.
– Use tighter risk management, recognizing that low liquidity conditions can amplify slippage and sudden spikes.
– Watch intraday order book depth and volatility measures to gauge how aggressively to size positions.
Longer-term holders may be more interested in:
– Assessing whether the current pullback aligns with their broader investment thesis on XRP’s fundamental and regulatory outlook.
– Monitoring on-chain data for signs of large, long-term wallet accumulation or distribution.
– Considering staggered entry or exit strategies rather than committing all capital at once in a choppy, trendless tape.
The macro backdrop: inflows amid bearish sentiment
One of the more striking elements of the backdrop is that spot exchange-traded products tied to crypto are still seeing steady inflows, even as sentiment at the asset level looks fragile. This suggests that larger, often more traditional investors continue to view digital assets as a viable part of diversified portfolios, even if they are selective about which tokens they favor.
However, such flows do not automatically translate into demand for every major asset. XRP’s price action shows that, despite the supportive narrative of institutional adoption at the asset class level, token-specific factors—like legal clarity, ecosystem development, and network activity—still play a critical role in performance.
The divergence between broad crypto inflows and XRP’s struggle below its key moving averages underscores the importance of differentiating between market-wide themes and coin-level realities.
Outlook: fragile equilibrium with rebound potential
Taken together, XRP currently sits in a fragile equilibrium:
– Exchange reserves have fallen sharply, reducing immediate supply on exchanges but also thinning liquidity.
– Price trades below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signaling a lack of sustained bullish momentum.
– RSI is neutral, reflecting neither panic nor exuberance, and hinting at possible stabilization if buyers step in.
– The $2.00 support area remains a crucial battleground that could determine the next major move.
If buying interest grows and pushes XRP back above $2.30 with improving volume and a firmer RSI, the current episode may be remembered as a consolidation phase marked by cautious accumulation and risk reduction. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $2, especially in combination with continued reserve outflows and weakening momentum, would reinforce the bearish case and leave the token more exposed to sharp, liquidity-driven swings.
For now, XRP’s on-chain and technical signals together describe a market that is neither clearly recovering nor definitively breaking down—a sideways, low-conviction environment where liquidity conditions themselves could become the key driver of volatility in the weeks ahead.