SOON token plunged by 26% on November 16, marking one of its steepest daily losses, as fear surrounding an upcoming token unlock triggered a wave of early selling. This sharp downturn reflects growing bearish sentiment, with traders opting to exit their positions in anticipation of further decline.
The token’s next unlock, scheduled for November 23, will release 15.21 million SOON tokens—equivalent to 4.3% of its circulating supply—into the market. This influx, valued at approximately $32 million, poses a significant risk to the token’s price, especially given the current lack of strong buying interest. Investors are reacting preemptively, likely aiming to avoid potential losses from the expected oversupply.
Market data supports this cautious behavior. SOON’s funding rate—a metric used to determine market sentiment in the derivatives sector—turned sharply negative, reaching -1.1307%. This reversal indicates that short positions are dominant, suggesting traders are betting on further price declines. At the same time, liquidity in the derivatives market has also taken a hit. Around $6.29 million was withdrawn, with $2.39 million of that resulting from forced liquidations. The remaining $3.9 million appears to be voluntary exits, reinforcing the view that market participants are reducing exposure due to growing uncertainty.
The price has now approached a critical support zone between $2.00 and $1.94, a range that has previously managed to hold back deeper losses since early November. However, continued bearish momentum has brought the token dangerously close to breaching this floor. A solid break below $1.94 could open the door to a more pronounced decline. On the other hand, if this level manages to hold, SOON might find temporary footing and even attempt a short-term recovery during the unlock period.
Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart show increased selling activity, with price reactions repeatedly clustering around the support zone. This suggests that while buyers are defending the area, the pressure from sellers is mounting. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this support can withstand the flood of new tokens or if a capitulation event is on the horizon.
Beyond technical signals, broader market sentiment surrounding unlock events plays a key role. Token unlocks often create fear among investors due to the potential dilution of value. Unless the project backing SOON can provide compelling reasons to hold—such as strong utility, partnerships, or ecosystem development—the prevailing narrative may remain bearish.
It’s also worth noting that the timing of the unlock coincides with a generally cautious sentiment across the crypto market. Macro uncertainties, such as interest rate hikes and economic instability, are causing investors to shy away from riskier assets. In such an environment, asset-specific concerns like unlocks are amplified, increasing the likelihood of panic selling.
To counteract this negative momentum, SOON’s development team would need to implement proactive strategies. These might include initiating buybacks, launching marketing campaigns to boost demand, or releasing positive news to shift sentiment. Without such efforts, the token could continue to drift downward, especially if the unlock triggers a new wave of selling.
For traders and investors, the key levels to watch remain clear. The $1.94 support is critical; a confirmed breakdown below this mark could lead to a fresh leg down, possibly toward the $1.50 range or lower. Conversely, a bounce from this zone could attract short-term buyers looking for a relief rally, especially if accompanied by a decline in selling volume or a recovery in funding rates.
In summary, SOON’s recent decline appears driven by a combination of technical fragility, weak demand, and fear of oversupply from the upcoming unlock. With derivatives traders already positioning for further downside and liquidity draining from the market, the token faces significant headwinds. The next few days will be pivotal, as price action around the key support zone will likely set the tone for SOON’s near-term trajectory.
To navigate this volatile phase, market participants should closely monitor derivatives data, on-chain metrics, and announcements from the SOON team. Staying informed and agile will be essential, as sudden shifts in sentiment or unexpected news could quickly change the market landscape.