Cardano price faces 30% downside as Nansen CEO predicts fall from top 20
Cardano’s native token ADA is under mounting pressure, with technical indicators and weakening fundamentals aligning to paint a bleak near-term outlook. After losing more than 67% of its value from the 2024 peak, the coin is trading around $0.40 and remains vulnerable to an additional drop of roughly 30% if current conditions persist.
The latest wave of selling comes against the backdrop of a broader crypto market downturn, but Cardano’s slide is being amplified by concerns that its ecosystem is stagnating. That perception was sharpened by a stark forecast from Nansen founder and CEO Alex Svanevik, who argued that ADA is likely to fall out of the list of the 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization within the next couple of years.
In his critique, Svanevik described Cardano as a “ghost chain” – a network with very little real activity compared with its valuation. He noted that despite years of promotion and high expectations, user adoption and on-chain activity remain underwhelming. He also pointed out that ADA’s latest price cycle peak failed to come close to its 2021 highs, even on a relative basis, calling its performance “abysmal” when measured against other major assets.
According to his outlook, newer or more specialized projects such as Hyperliquid, Monad and Zcash could overtake Cardano in market ranking as soon as next year. The argument rests on the idea that capital and users are flowing toward chains that either offer superior scalability, clearer product–market fit, or stronger traction in growth areas like derivatives, zero-knowledge tech, or privacy.
Weak fundamentals weigh on ADA
Beyond the rhetoric, on-chain and ecosystem metrics currently offer little support for a bullish Cardano thesis. In decentralized finance, the segment that has driven massive growth for chains like Ethereum, Solana and BNB Smart Chain, Cardano’s footprint is still modest. Its total value locked (TVL) hovers around 230 million dollars, a relatively small number for a network whose market capitalization exceeds 10 billion dollars.
This mismatch between valuation and actual capital usage reinforces the view that ADA’s price has been buoyed more by narrative and long-term promises than by current economic activity on the chain. While some DeFi protocols do exist in Cardano’s ecosystem, they have not yet reached the scale, liquidity or user depth seen on the leading networks.
The picture is even weaker in the stablecoin market, which has become a central pillar of crypto infrastructure. Cardano’s total stablecoin supply is estimated at about 35 million dollars – effectively negligible compared with the tens of billions circulating on Ethereum or the fast-growing supplies on Solana and other rivals. Without a robust stablecoin layer, it is difficult for a chain to support active trading, lending, and other financial use cases at scale.
Cardano’s presence in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is also minimal, despite this being one of the most talked‑about growth narratives in crypto. Major RWA initiatives have largely chosen other blockchains for issuance and settlement, leaving Cardano on the sidelines of this emerging trend. The same is true for non-fungible tokens (NFTs), where Cardano once tried to cultivate a niche but has since been overshadowed by Ethereum, Solana and other ecosystems with stronger marketplaces and creator communities.
Institutional interest remains limited
The combination of low on-chain activity and weak positioning in key growth sectors goes a long way toward explaining why institutional demand for ADA has been restrained. While some large investors do hold the token, the kind of broad, structural embrace seen for other majors has not materialized.
One of the clearest examples is in the race to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for crypto assets. So far, only one major asset manager, Grayscale, has moved to create an ADA-focused product of this type. By contrast, competitors such as Solana and XRP have attracted a wider range of ETF applications and product proposals, signaling stronger confidence from institutional issuers that there will be sustained investor interest.
In an environment where regulators are gradually opening the door to more crypto products, this relative lack of momentum is notable. It signals that, for many institutions, Cardano is not currently considered a must‑have exposure, especially when weighed against its limited usage metrics and the availability of alternative networks with more visible traction.
Three big upgrades – and big questions
Cardano’s developers and founder Charles Hoskinson are not standing still. The project is banking on several major technical upgrades that, in theory, could address some of the criticisms and unlock new use cases.
The first is Hydra, a layer‑2 scaling solution designed to significantly increase throughput and enable near‑zero‑fee transactions. By moving much of the transaction load off the main chain, Hydra aims to make Cardano more competitive for high‑frequency and microtransaction use cases. If successfully deployed and adopted, it could reduce congestion and lower user costs, two key barriers to growth.
The second initiative is Leios, a redesign of Cardano’s consensus protocol. The goal is to improve efficiency and scalability at the base layer while preserving the network’s security guarantees. A more performant consensus mechanism could make Cardano better suited for complex applications and higher transaction volumes, though such changes are technically challenging and carry their own execution risks.
The third major effort is Midnight, a zero‑knowledge (ZK) sidechain intended to bring enhanced privacy features and compliance‑friendly tools to the ecosystem. By integrating ZK technology, Cardano could open the door to new categories of applications that require confidentiality, such as enterprise solutions or privacy‑preserving financial products.
However, markets often price assets based not just on roadmaps, but on delivered results and adoption. For now, investors appear skeptical that these upgrades will quickly translate into meaningful user growth, especially given the intense competition from chains that already have robust ecosystems and active developer communities.
Technical picture: bearish momentum intensifies
From a purely technical perspective, ADA’s chart is signaling sustained downside pressure. On the three‑day timeframe, the token has been locked in a pronounced downtrend for several months, falling from a high of around 1.093 dollars to the current 0.400 dollars zone. This level marks the lowest price since November of the previous year, underscoring how much of the 2024 rally has been erased.
A critical support area at approximately 0.5132 dollars – which acted as a floor in both April and June – has been decisively broken. Losing this level has turned it into resistance, making any attempt at a recovery more difficult. Traders often interpret such breaks as confirmation that bears are in control.
Adding to the bleak picture is the emergence of a mini “death cross” pattern, where the 50‑day moving average has crossed below the 100‑day moving average. While not as widely watched as the 50/200‑day death cross, this configuration still conveys a shift toward medium‑term bearish momentum.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), a tool used to measure the strength of a trend, has climbed to about 36. Readings above 25–30 typically indicate that a trend – in this case, a downtrend – is strong and possibly intensifying. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory, signaling that selling has been aggressive.
Price outlook: 0.276 dollars in focus
Taken together, these signals point to a dominant bearish bias. If the current trajectory continues, a plausible next support target lies near 0.276 dollars, which corresponds to the lows seen in August of last year. From the current trading band around 0.40 dollars, that would represent a decline of roughly 30%.
For traders, this zone may serve as a key level to watch. Some will view it as a potential area for a technical bounce or consolidation; others may see it as simply another milestone in a larger downtrend if fundamentals do not improve. A failure to hold that support could open the door to even deeper retracements toward earlier cycle lows.
Conversely, any sustained recovery would likely require ADA to reclaim and hold above the broken 0.5132 dollars level, turning it back into support. That would be an early sign that selling pressure is easing and that buyers are willing to step in with conviction. Until such a move occurs, rallies may be treated as opportunities to exit or short by bearish market participants.
How much of the sell‑off is macro – and how much is Cardano?
Part of ADA’s decline can be attributed to the broader crypto market downturn. When risk appetite fades, capital tends to exit altcoins more aggressively than it exits Bitcoin or the largest blue‑chip assets. In such risk‑off phases, even fundamentally strong projects can see steep drawdowns.
However, the depth and persistence of Cardano’s underperformance suggest that project‑specific issues are also at play. Other layer‑1 chains with vibrant ecosystems have often seen sharper rebounds during market bounces, while ADA has struggled to regain momentum. This divergence supports the argument that investors are repricing the asset based on concerns about adoption and competitive positioning, not just on macro headwinds.
The “ghost chain” label: fair or exaggerated?
Calling Cardano a “ghost chain” is a strong claim and, like most soundbites, simplifies a more complex reality. The network does have active developers, community members and users, and there are functioning DeFi and NFT projects built on it. In absolute terms, hundreds of millions in TVL and a multi‑billion‑dollar market cap are not trivial.
Yet markets are comparative. When measured against its peers, Cardano’s activity levels, fee generation and ecosystem growth are modest. For a chain that has been in the spotlight for years and has positioned itself as a scientifically rigorous, third‑generation blockchain, expectations are higher than for many newer projects. That gap between promise and current usage is what critics like Svanevik are emphasizing.
Whether this label sticks will depend heavily on what happens over the next cycle. If upgrades like Hydra, Leios and Midnight translate into new applications, user growth and developer interest, the narrative could shift. If not, the perception of Cardano as an overvalued, underutilized network may become entrenched.
What long‑term holders should consider
For long‑term ADA holders, the present situation poses a difficult question: is this a temporary downturn in a still‑promising project, or a sign of structural decline? The answer depends on several factors:
– Execution risk: Can the team deliver Hydra, Leios and Midnight on time and at the quality needed to attract real usage?
– Ecosystem traction: Will developers choose Cardano over rival chains that already offer high throughput and deep liquidity?
– Narrative strength: Can Cardano articulate a distinctive role in the evolving crypto landscape – beyond being just another smart‑contract platform?
– Competitive pressure: How quickly will competitors like Solana, Monad, and others advance, and will they capture the very niches Cardano is targeting?
Investors who believe Cardano will overcome these hurdles may view current prices – or even lower levels such as 0.276 dollars – as a long‑term accumulation opportunity, accepting significant volatility in the process. Skeptics, however, may interpret Svanevik’s forecast as a warning that capital could be better deployed in ecosystems with clearer, faster‑evolving product–market fit.
Risk management in a high‑volatility environment
Regardless of one’s conviction, ADA remains a high‑risk asset in a notoriously volatile market. The prospect of an additional 30% drawdown underscores the importance of risk management. Traders may consider setting clear invalidation levels for their theses, using position sizing that reflects their risk tolerance, and avoiding over‑exposure to any single altcoin.
For those still bullish on Cardano’s long‑term vision, a phased or dollar‑cost‑averaging approach can help mitigate timing risk. For those leaning bearish, it may be more prudent to wait for evidence of a trend reversal on both technical and fundamental fronts before reassessing.
In the meantime, the market is likely to remain focused on whether Cardano’s roadmap can finally translate into meaningful adoption – or whether the network continues to drift down the rankings, validating the prediction that it will eventually exit the crypto top 20.