Cantor Fitzgerald has dramatically cut its price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR), slashing its 12‑month estimate by 59%, yet the firm still describes itself as structurally positive on the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
In a note published Friday, Cantor analysts lowered their target price for MicroStrategy shares to $229, down from a prior forecast of $560. Despite the deep reduction, the investment bank maintained its “Overweight” rating on the stock, signaling that it still expects MSTR to outperform the broader market over the long run.
MicroStrategy, often described as a de facto Bitcoin holding vehicle, controls roughly $58 billion worth of BTC on its balance sheet. The company’s aggressive strategy of using corporate funds and capital markets to continually expand its Bitcoin position has turned it into one of the most closely watched Bitcoin‑linked equities in traditional finance.
Cantor’s revised model comes after a sharp drawdown in MicroStrategy’s share price. Over the past six months, MSTR has fallen by more than 50%, a move that has far outpaced the pullbacks seen in Bitcoin itself. The bank’s new target acknowledges this heightened volatility and reassesses how much value the market might reasonably assign to the company’s non‑Bitcoin operations.
A key driver behind the target cut is how Cantor now values MicroStrategy’s treasury and capital‑allocation strategy. The analysts reduced their estimate of the value created by these activities from $364 per share to $74 per share. That thinner premium reflects a more conservative stance on how much incremental upside the company can squeeze out of its financing tactics and timing around Bitcoin purchases.
Even with the markdown, Cantor’s stance is not overtly bearish. The “Overweight” rating indicates that the firm still sees MicroStrategy as an attractive way to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin over a multi‑year horizon. In other words, while the near‑term price objective has been reset lower, the structural thesis—that MicroStrategy can act as a long‑term Bitcoin proxy—remains intact.
Looking ahead, Cantor now forecasts that MicroStrategy could raise roughly $7.8 billion over the next 12 months through a mix of capital‑markets activities. This would likely include additional stock offerings, convertible notes, or other financing instruments similar to those the company has used repeatedly in the past. Historically, much of that capital has ultimately been directed toward purchasing more Bitcoin, deepening the link between MSTR’s share price and the crypto asset.
The updated target also implicitly recognizes the risks of such a leveraged Bitcoin strategy. When BTC rallies, MicroStrategy’s equity tends to outperform dramatically, as both the value of its holdings and the market’s speculative premium expand. But when Bitcoin stumbles or trades sideways, the company’s debt load, dilution from new equity, and sensitivity to sentiment can amplify the downside, which is what has played out over recent months.
Another nuance in Cantor’s recalibration is how investors are now treating MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin itself. Over time, many market participants had come to view MSTR as a leveraged spot Bitcoin ETF in everything but name—offering upside exposure to BTC plus the company’s ability to time, leverage, and scale its purchases. The latest correction in the share price suggests that the market is now demanding a steeper discount for that leverage and execution risk than it did at prior peaks.
MicroStrategy’s corporate software business, once the core of the company’s identity, remains part of the valuation picture but plays a smaller psychological role for investors. Cantor’s lowered target reflects that the narrative and price dynamics are now overwhelmingly dominated by the firm’s Bitcoin strategy and capital structure, rather than its enterprise analytics products. As a result, changes in BTC price, funding costs, and regulatory sentiment often overshadow traditional operating metrics.
For long‑term bulls, the core argument around MicroStrategy still hinges on Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming years. If BTC appreciates substantially from current levels, the company’s large, largely unhedged position could translate into enormous equity upside, even after accounting for dilution and debt. Cantor’s decision to keep an “Overweight” rating indicates that its analysts still believe this asymmetric payoff profile is attractive despite the risks.
On the other hand, more cautious investors point to several vulnerabilities. The company’s reliance on continuous access to capital markets, exposure to potential regulatory changes around corporate Bitcoin holdings, and the possibility of prolonged Bitcoin bear markets all pose material threats. A scenario in which Bitcoin stagnates or declines for multiple years would not only weigh on MicroStrategy’s balance sheet but also limit its ability to raise fresh capital on favorable terms.
The recalibrated target price can thus be read as a compromise between these two perspectives. Cantor acknowledges that the previous $560 target may have overestimated the premium investors were willing to assign to MicroStrategy’s treasury maneuvering and Bitcoin accumulation strategy. At the same time, the new $229 target and the retained positive rating suggest that the firm still believes the current market pessimism has gone too far.
For investors evaluating MSTR, the latest move by Cantor underscores the importance of treating the stock less like a traditional tech equity and more like a high‑beta Bitcoin instrument with corporate‑finance complexity layered on top. Position sizing, risk management, and time horizon become critical: the same volatility that creates massive upside potential also brings the possibility of severe drawdowns, as the recent 50%+ slide demonstrates.
Ultimately, Cantor’s note reinforces a central theme of the MicroStrategy story: as long as the company remains committed to its role as a Bitcoin accumulator and proxy, analyst targets and ratings will move primarily in response to changing views on Bitcoin’s long‑term value and the sustainability of MicroStrategy’s funding model. The bank’s 59% cut in target price reflects a more sober view of those dynamics—but its decision to stay “long‑term bullish” shows that, in its eyes, the high‑risk, high‑reward thesis for the Bitcoin giant is still very much alive.