“Improving risk sentiment” is once again pushing Bitcoin higher, with the leading cryptocurrency storming back above $90,000 and putting a fresh retest of that level firmly on the table, according to derivatives trading firm QCP Capital.
On Wednesday, a wave of buy orders drove Bitcoin above $90,000 for the first time in almost a week. The rally wasn’t sparked by any Bitcoin‑specific news or on-chain development; instead, QCP argues it was part of a broader shift toward risk assets as macro conditions turned more favorable.
The move began from an intraday low near $86,400 and then extended in a near‑straight line, with no major pullbacks interrupting the advance. Data shows Bitcoin gaining about 5.3% over the last 24 hours and hovering around $91,500 in Thursday trading, signaling strong momentum and persistent demand on the bid side.
This abrupt bullish reversal has put short sellers under intense pressure. After several weeks of grinding downside that encouraged traders to bet against Bitcoin, the sudden upside move triggered a wave of forced liquidations. Over the last 24 hours, roughly $241 million in Bitcoin shorts were wiped out, according to derivatives analytics, more than tripling the value of liquidated long positions over the same period. That kind of short squeeze often adds fuel to an already rising market as underwater traders scramble to cover.
The macro backdrop appears to be doing heavy lifting. Expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with implied probabilities now hovering around 85%. Lower rates reduce the appeal of cash and government bonds while making speculative assets—including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies—relatively more attractive. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s renewed strength looks less like an isolated crypto story and more like a leg of a global “risk‑on” trade.
Equity markets are telling a similar tale. The S&P 500 index has just locked in a fourth consecutive session of gains, underscoring a broad improvement in investor appetite for risk. As stock benchmarks march higher and bond yields soften, capital tends to flow back into higher‑beta corners of the market, and Bitcoin remains one of the most sensitive barometers of that shift.
For QCP Capital, this alignment between macro optimism and crypto price action is central. In its latest note, the firm emphasizes that there was no single catalyst inside the crypto ecosystem—no major ETF shock, regulatory headline, or network upgrade—to explain the rally. Instead, the climb is being framed as a textbook reaction to easing financial conditions and the growing belief that the worst of the tightening cycle is behind us.
At the same time, analysts remain cautious rather than euphoric. After weeks of steady downside, sentiment had grown visibly fatigued, and positioning skewed more defensive. That set the stage for a sharp reversal once the macro narrative flipped. But it also means traders are now asking whether this is the beginning of a sustained new leg higher, or just a powerful relief rally within a broader consolidation phase around the $90,000 area.
Options markets provide some clues. Implied volatility, which had been grinding lower as the market drifted down, is starting to pick up again, reflecting renewed demand for leverage and hedging. Call buying at higher strike prices suggests some participants are positioning for a clean break beyond recent highs, while others are paying up for downside protection in case macro conditions deteriorate again.
From a market‑structure angle, the fact that Bitcoin advanced from $86,400 to above $90,000 without deep intraday setbacks points to a healthier order book than during the late‑summer sell‑off. Spot buying, not just leveraged derivatives activity, appears to be playing a meaningful role. This is a constructive sign for bulls, who prefer to see rallies supported by real demand rather than just short squeezes and funding imbalances.
Still, several risks linger. The rally is heavily dependent on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will deliver rate cuts on the expected timeline and that inflation will continue to trend lower. Any surprise in upcoming inflation prints or labor‑market data could force markets to rapidly reprice those expectations, hitting both stocks and crypto. In such a scenario, Bitcoin’s recent gains could unwind just as quickly as they appeared.
Another factor to watch is how altcoins react if Bitcoin holds above $90,000. Historically, a strong, steady Bitcoin has often been followed—though not always—by renewed interest in higher‑risk tokens as traders seek greater percentage returns. For now, Bitcoin is clearly in the driver’s seat, but a prolonged stay near or above $90,000 could spark a broader rotation into the rest of the crypto market.
Institutional behavior is also critical. The current environment, with elevated but receding rate expectations and a robust equity market, is typically when large funds reassess their exposure to non‑traditional assets. If institutional desks view this bounce as confirmation that Bitcoin can withstand macro shocks and maintain its role as a “high‑beta macro asset,” fresh inflows could extend the rally beyond a simple short‑covering move.
For short sellers, the message is straightforward: the easy part of the downtrend may be over. After a series of lower lows and persistent selling pressure, many bears grew comfortable leaning on resistance levels. The latest surge shows how quickly that complacency can flip into panic when macro winds change direction. Traders who continue to fade rallies in this environment must do so with tight risk controls and a clear exit plan.
For long‑term holders, however, the narrative has changed less dramatically. Whether Bitcoin is at $86,000 or $91,500, the key themes—monetary policy, institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and its perceived role in a diversified portfolio—remain in focus. Improvements in risk sentiment may accelerate capitulation among skeptics and embolden new entrants, but structural drivers are still playing out over a multi‑year horizon.
In the short term, all eyes remain on whether Bitcoin can convincingly consolidate above the $90,000 mark and turn it into a reliable support zone. A clean break and hold above recent range highs, combined with continued strength in equity markets and stable rate‑cut expectations, would strengthen the case for another leg toward all‑time highs. Failure to do so, especially if accompanied by renewed macro jitters, could signal that Bitcoin is not done oscillating in a wide, volatile band.
For now, QCP Capital’s assessment sums up the landscape: this is not a purely crypto‑driven rally. It is a reflection of a broader thaw in risk aversion across global markets. As long as that risk sentiment continues to improve—and December rate cut odds remain elevated—Bitcoin’s retest of $90,000 may be less a spike and more the beginning of a renewed attempt to reclaim the narrative in the risk‑asset complex.