Bitcoin Eyes $130K as Key On-Chain Signals Indicate Bullish Reversal
After a sharp correction from its all-time high of $126,199, Bitcoin has shed nearly 17% of its value, according to TradingView data. Yet, despite recent bearish momentum, several critical metrics now point toward an imminent bullish reversal — one that could potentially propel BTC toward the $130,000 mark by the end of the year.
Signs of a market bottom are emerging, with the Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) metric offering a compelling case. Historically, when this metric dips below the 0.5 level, it often precedes a price recovery. This behavior has repeated several times in the past — notably in January 2024, July 2024, and again in April 2025. At the time of writing, the NUP sits at 0.47, suggesting that Bitcoin may once again be poised for a breakout.
Adding to the bullish outlook is miner activity. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the mining index has fallen into negative territory, currently standing at -0.3. This change typically indicates that miners are shifting from selling to accumulation — a move that often precedes upward price movements, as supply pressure from miners eases.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is forming a familiar and historically potent bullish pattern: the Golden Cross. This occurs when the 50-day moving average (50DMA) crosses above the 200-day moving average (200DMA). Previous occurrences of this pattern — in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025 — all preceded substantial price rallies. The development of this pattern once again suggests a strong potential for upward momentum.
Institutional behavior further reinforces this narrative. In recent weeks, institutional investors have significantly increased their exposure to Bitcoin, acquiring roughly $524 million worth of BTC. Even though spot investors offloaded about $72 million in the past week, this followed a much larger purchase of over $536 million the month prior — indicating that investor confidence remains intact.
Farzam Ehsani, CEO and Co-founder of VALR, emphasizes that Bitcoin is demonstrating underlying strength, though he believes the larger rally is still ahead. For him, a decisive breakout above the $110,000 mark could serve as the inflection point that launches BTC into a new bullish phase. He highlights the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and upcoming macroeconomic data — including inflation and consumer price index (CPI) figures — as important catalysts that could provide clarity and direction to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Ehsani also suggested that renewed inflows into spot ETFs could be instrumental in pushing Bitcoin back to test previous highs and even extend toward $130,000. ETF inflows play a key role in market psychology by signaling institutional endorsement and long-term confidence in the asset.
But what else could drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming months?
One crucial factor is macroeconomic policy. Should interest rates begin to decline or stabilize as inflation eases, investors may increasingly allocate capital toward high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. A dovish stance from central banks could amplify demand for Bitcoin, especially as a hedge against fiat devaluation.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty often plays a role in Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value. Increased tensions or financial instability in traditional markets may lead more investors to seek refuge in decentralized assets. In such scenarios, Bitcoin’s scarcity and independence from central authority make it an attractive proposition.
Another key element is the growing adoption of Bitcoin by both retail and institutional sectors. As more companies integrate BTC into their payment infrastructure and financial institutions create crypto-related investment products, demand could continue to rise. The increasing integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial systems may reduce volatility and increase price stability over time.
Technological upgrades to the Bitcoin network, such as improvements in scalability and security, can also have a long-term positive impact. Advances like the Taproot upgrade and the Lightning Network are designed to improve transaction efficiency and privacy, making Bitcoin more appealing for everyday use and long-term holding.
Investor sentiment is another important variable. As confidence returns to the crypto market, especially after a period of consolidation, buying momentum often accelerates. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages, when combined with strong fundamentals, can create a powerful narrative that drives capital inflows.
Lastly, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event — expected sometime in 2026 — may already be influencing market expectations. Historically, halvings have led to supply shocks that result in significant price increases months later. Investors may begin positioning themselves early in anticipation of this cyclical event, further supporting upward price pressure.
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent correction appears to be giving way to a potentially powerful recovery. Key metrics such as the NUP, miner accumulation, institutional buying, and technical formations like the Golden Cross all point to a bullish shift in market sentiment. If macroeconomic conditions align and ETF inflows gain momentum, Bitcoin could very well be on track to reach, or even exceed, $130,000 before the year is out.