Bitcoin Heads for First Negative October Since 2018: What’s Behind the Decline?
After enjoying a seven-year streak of gains each October – a trend affectionately dubbed “Uptober” by crypto enthusiasts – Bitcoin appears on course to break tradition in 2024. With a month-to-date drop of 5.51%, this October may mark the cryptocurrency’s first red month for October since 2018. The downturn has sparked concern and speculation across the crypto community. What’s driving this unexpected reversal?
A combination of profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainty has proven to be a heavy drag on Bitcoin’s price this month. On October 31, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $110,155, a notable drop from $122,870 at the close of September. Even more striking, that figure is nearly 13% below the all-time high of $126,198 recorded earlier in the month on October 6.
This sharp drop is not an isolated event but appears to be part of a broader trend driven by investor behavior and external economic factors. For instance, on October 23, a wallet dating back to the Satoshi era – dormant for 14 years – suddenly became active, moving around $16 million worth of BTC. Such events typically signal that long-term holders are cashing out, especially around peak price levels, suggesting that many investors are locking in profits amid growing uncertainty.
Vugar Usi Zade, Chief Operating Officer at Bitget, points to significant capital outflows from major crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as further evidence of waning investor confidence. According to him, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw over $550 million in outflows in the latter part of October alone. These movements reflect investor reactions to ongoing macroeconomic instability and shifting monetary policy expectations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks hint that October’s rate cut may be the last for the year. This statement has reinforced the “higher for longer” narrative regarding interest rates, which tends to dampen appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Elevated interest rates typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and reduce liquidity in markets, both of which are headwinds for Bitcoin.
Another contributing factor is Bitcoin’s evolving market maturity. Analysts at TeraHash suggest that while Bitcoin’s bullish momentum persists, it is showing signs of moderation. As the market matures and institutional involvement grows, price movements become less volatile. This increased stability can act as a buffer against steep declines, but it also tempers dramatic price surges.
According to their analysis, the strength of recent rallies has diminished when compared to previous cycles. The October 2023 to March 2024 rally, for example, was more robust than the one from September to December 2024. Similarly, the April to July 2025 rally appears weaker than its predecessor. These patterns suggest a gradual deceleration in bullish momentum, making Bitcoin more susceptible to corrections like the one seen this October.
In addition to structural and macroeconomic factors, market sentiment has also played a role in this month’s decline. The crypto market operates heavily on narratives and psychological triggers. The breaking of a long-standing positive trend in October could itself have exacerbated the downturn, as investors recalibrate expectations.
Moreover, the broader crypto market has been under pressure due to regulatory developments and global economic conditions. The uncertainty surrounding crypto regulation in major markets like the United States, combined with tighter monetary conditions globally, has led to increased caution among both retail and institutional investors.
Geopolitical tensions also contribute to risk aversion. With ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, capital tends to flow into safer assets such as treasury bonds or the U.S. dollar, reducing demand for speculative instruments like cryptocurrencies.
Another element affecting Bitcoin’s price action is its growing correlation with traditional markets. As more institutions add Bitcoin to their portfolios, its price becomes increasingly sensitive to stock market fluctuations, interest rate changes, and macroeconomic data releases. This correlation has been particularly evident this October, as equities faced their own set of challenges.
Additionally, the ETF sector’s underperformance has had a ripple effect. With Bitcoin ETFs experiencing large redemptions, the demand for spot BTC declined, putting further downward pressure on the market. This trend may continue if monetary policy remains tight and investor sentiment doesn’t rebound soon.
Despite the short-term dip, some analysts argue that this correction could be healthy for the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. A cooling-off period allows for consolidation and the building of stronger support levels, potentially paving the way for a more sustainable rally in the future.
Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching central bank decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical developments to gauge the potential for recovery. Bitcoin’s resilience has been tested repeatedly, and while October may end in the red, the long-term fundamentals remain strong in the eyes of many supporters.
In summary, the first negative October in seven years for Bitcoin can be attributed to a mix of profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, ETF outflows, and a maturing market structure. While the downturn has raised eyebrows, it also offers a moment of reflection on how far the asset class has come—and where it might go next.