Arthur Hayes brands the Federal Reserve’s new Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program as “quantitative easing in disguise” and argues that this hidden liquidity wave could propel Bitcoin back above $124,000, with a shot at $200,000 and beyond by 2026.
The BitMEX co-founder and current CIO of Maelstrom Fund laid out his thesis in a December 19 essay titled “Love Language.” In it, he claims the RMP mechanism is functionally indistinguishable from classic QE, even if the Fed avoids using that politically loaded term. According to Hayes, the technical framing may be different, but for risk assets like Bitcoin, the end result is the same: more dollar liquidity and higher prices.
Hayes expects Bitcoin (BTC) to trade in a relatively volatile band between $80,000 and $100,000 in the near term. After this consolidation phase, he projects that BTC will reclaim its previous high at around $124,000 and then push toward the $200,000 region in early to mid‑2026, driven by a combination of macro liquidity and investor psychology.
In his analysis, Hayes explains that RMP was rolled out following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10. Rather than buying Treasuries directly from the market as in traditional QE, the Fed uses RMP to acquire short‑term Treasury bills from money market funds. Those money market funds, now sitting on fresh cash reserves, can then rotate into longer‑dated Treasuries or deploy capital into repo markets and other assets.
This seemingly small plumbing detail is crucial in Hayes’ view. By channeling purchases through money market funds, the Fed can still absorb huge amounts of government debt and indirectly finance large budget deficits—without calling the program “QE” or triggering the same political scrutiny. In other words, the central bank can quietly expand its balance sheet while insisting that it is merely ensuring “ample reserves” in the system.
Hayes notes that the nominal scale of RMP—around $40 billion per month—is smaller than the biggest QE waves seen after the 2008 financial crisis or during the pandemic. However, he argues that the structure gives it comparable force. Because the US government is increasingly reliant on short‑term T‑bill issuance to cover annual deficits north of $2 trillion, any persistent RMP bid effectively supports that funding machine. Over time, this becomes a powerful driver of systemic liquidity.
A key part of his concern centers on discretion. Hayes highlights that the New York Fed, under President John Williams, has significant latitude to decide how far and how fast RMP expands, guided only by vague language about maintaining “ample reserves.” That ambiguity, he says, opens the door to practically unlimited balance sheet growth with minimal public oversight—what he memorably describes as the “money printer” roaring back to life.
Against this backdrop, Hayes has also adjusted his own crypto portfolio strategy. He revealed that Maelstrom is rotating out of Ethereum and into what he describes as “high‑quality DeFi names.” His thesis is that decentralized finance protocols with strong fundamentals and real cash flows could outperform as fiat liquidity rises and investors search for yield and growth outside of traditional finance.
Looking ahead, Hayes maps out a multi‑phase price path for Bitcoin through 2026. In his base case, BTC spends December 2025 through January 2026 oscillating between $80,000 and $100,000. Two main forces anchor this range: first, a lingering belief in markets that RMP is somehow materially different from QE; second, a cloud of uncertainty over whether the Fed will extend the program beyond its currently scheduled conclusion in April 2026.
Once investors collectively accept that RMP is effectively QE, Hayes expects sentiment to flip. That recognition, combined with any official or unofficial signal that RMP will persist or expand, could ignite a sharp repricing in risk assets. In his scenario, Bitcoin would quickly reclaim the $124,000 zone and then accelerate toward $200,000 as early‑to‑mid 2026 unfolds.
He believes the next leg higher would be fueled by institutional fear of missing out, sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds, and broader recognition that the Federal Reserve’s policies are actively underwriting ongoing government spending. In this framework, Bitcoin serves as a macro hedge and a beneficiary of fiat debasement, attracting both retail and professional capital.
Hayes identifies March 2026 as the moment of “peak expectations” for RMP’s power to inflate asset prices. Around that time, he anticipates a meaningful Bitcoin correction, not as a definitive cycle top but as a cooling phase after an overheated rally. In his view, any subsequent downturn would still see BTC establishing a local bottom comfortably above $124,000, signaling structural strength even amid volatility.
Importantly, Hayes has not capped his projections at $200,000. In comments from late November, he outlined an even more aggressive long‑term target: $500,000 per Bitcoin by the end of 2026. This upper‑end scenario assumes persistent monetary expansion, continued institutional adoption, and the narrative of digital scarcity gaining further traction as confidence in fiat systems erodes.
For market participants, Hayes’ thesis highlights a critical point: the technical labels used by central banks matter far less than the actual flow of capital they unleash. Whether the Fed calls it QE, RMP, or something else, programs that systematically absorb government debt and expand reserves tend to funnel liquidity into financial assets. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and growing institutional infrastructure, is positioned to be a major beneficiary of such waves.
His perspective also underscores the growing importance of understanding the “plumbing” of the financial system. Many traders focus on headline interest rate decisions while overlooking the balance sheet tools, repo operations, and liquidity facilities that often drive price action. RMP, as presented by Hayes, is one of those under‑the‑radar tools that can quietly reshape market conditions.
At the same time, this outlook is not without risks. If inflation flares up again or political pressure mounts against perceived backdoor stimulus, the Fed could alter or wind down RMP faster than markets expect. Stronger‑than‑anticipated economic data or a shift toward tighter policy could also disrupt the bullish script. Hayes’ roadmap is contingent on RMP continuing to act as a stealth liquidity engine rather than being abruptly curtailed.
For Bitcoin investors, this environment demands flexibility. Those who share Hayes’ macro view might position for an extended bull market while recognizing that the path will likely involve sharp drawdowns, sentiment swings, and policy surprises. Strategic allocation, risk management, and time horizon become as important as price targets.
The rotation into high‑quality DeFi that Hayes describes is another piece of this puzzle. If dollar liquidity indeed expands, segments of crypto that offer yield, collateral efficiency, and programmable finance could attract renewed interest. Projects with transparent governance, robust security, and sustainable token economics may stand out as prime beneficiaries, particularly if traditional yields remain compressed in real terms.
On a broader level, Hayes’ argument speaks to a recurring theme in crypto: the idea that Bitcoin and digital assets are not simply speculative toys, but instruments deeply interwoven with global monetary policy. As central banks experiment with ever more complex balance sheet tools, the appeal of an asset with predetermined issuance and no central authority may become sharper for both individuals and institutions.
Whether or not Bitcoin ultimately hits $200,000 or $500,000 within Hayes’ timeline, his analysis frames the coming years as a test of two competing systems: one based on discretionary money creation and opaque policy tools, and one built around algorithmic scarcity and open networks. RMP, in his telling, is just the latest chapter in that unfolding story—and a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next explosive move.