Li Hua Yi sees ‘no reason’ to cash out as post‑Hormuz rally gathers pace
Liquid Capital founder Li Hua Yi is urging investors to stay the course rather than lock in gains, arguing that the rebound triggered by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still has momentum left. In a recent post on X, from his account @Jackyi_ld, he framed the end of hostilities around the critical waterway as a structural turning point, writing that “with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the war has officially ended” and that “peace is the only best choice.”
Against that backdrop, Li says he remains “optimistic about this rebound” and currently sees “no reason to take profits” as risk assets push higher. His stance places him firmly in the “peace trade” camp: investors who believe the market shock caused by the Hormuz closure has reset positioning, but not the broader bullish trend in equities and crypto.
From chokepoint crisis to relief rally
The Strait of Hormuz saga has defined macro sentiment in recent weeks. The narrow passage, through which around 20 million barrels of oil move each day, had seen traffic collapse by more than 95% at the height of the crisis amid missile attacks, insurance suspensions and fears of direct confrontation between Iran and Western powers.
A subsequent ceasefire agreement, paired with blunt and highly publicized threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to target Iranian infrastructure if the strait remained blocked, helped ease immediate concerns. Shipping volumes have started to recover, even if flows have not yet fully returned to pre‑war levels. For markets, that shift from “worst‑case” to “manageable disruption” has been enough to ignite a powerful relief rally.
Strategists note that oil, which initially spiked toward levels consistent with a severe supply shock, has since retreated as tankers resume transit and traders recalibrate the odds of a renewed, full‑scale confrontation. The sense that the most catastrophic outcomes have been avoided, at least for now, is underpinning a broad‑based move back into risk assets.
Why Li argues the rally still has legs
Li sees this macro reset as fertile ground for a continued squeeze higher in both traditional and digital markets. He points to three key signals of resilient risk appetite:
– The S&P 500 pushing to fresh record highs
– MicroStrategy continuing to accumulate Bitcoin
– Ongoing rotation into smaller altcoins such as the so‑called “Hawthorn Coin,” which he highlights as part of a broader pattern of capital rotating, not exiting
In his view, these developments show not a market that is topping out, but one where investors are still searching for upside exposure across different segments rather than de‑risking in unison. That, he suggests, is incompatible with the idea that it is time to aggressively take profits.
MicroStrategy as a barometer of crypto risk appetite
Li leans heavily on MicroStrategy’s activity as a proxy for institutional confidence in Bitcoin. The business‑intelligence company has become synonymous with leveraged Bitcoin exposure, turning its balance sheet into what many see as a publicly traded BTC vehicle.
According to its latest disclosures, MicroStrategy bought 1,287 Bitcoin between late December and early January for around 116.3 million dollars. Those purchases brought the company’s total Bitcoin stash to 673,783 BTC, acquired at an aggregate cost of roughly 50.55 billion dollars. At recent market prices, that position is sitting on an unrealized profit close to 12.4 billion dollars.
For Li, the fact that MicroStrategy is still adding to an already enormous position during a period of geopolitical tension and market volatility reinforces the narrative that deep‑pocketed players are not calling the top. Instead, they appear to be leaning into weakness and macro uncertainty, aligning with his “no reason to take profits” message.
The “no‑profit‑taking” thesis
Li’s now‑widely quoted line about there being “no reason to take profits” encapsulates a growing belief that the Hormuz shock acted as a cleansing event rather than a trend‑ending one. Positioning was reset as short‑term players de‑risked into the panic, but the longer‑term economic and liquidity backdrop, in this view, remains largely intact.
Under this thesis, the spike in volatility and oil prices was a stress test rather than a regime change. As shipping activity normalizes and fears of an outright supply collapse recede, risk markets are free to re‑price toward levels more consistent with a world where growth is slowing only gradually and central banks remain broadly accommodative or at least predictable.
This thinking is visible in the way capital has flowed back not just into benchmark indices and Bitcoin, but also into more speculative corners of the market. The rotation Li references-from large‑cap names into smaller tokens and niche altcoins-suggests investors are again willing to embrace higher beta exposures instead of hiding solely in perceived safe havens within the risk universe.
Fragile foundations beneath the rebound
Yet even Li’s supporters acknowledge that the rally is built on fragile assumptions. Energy analysts continue to describe flows through Hormuz as “severely but likely temporarily disrupted.” The strait still represents one of the world’s most critical chokepoints; any renewed blockade could instantly remove close to 20 million barrels per day from global supply, an unprecedented shock.
Such a disruption would ricochet through every risk asset. Equities sitting at all‑time highs would suddenly have to discount the prospect of energy shortages, margin compression and lower growth. Bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy, which have traded as leveraged expressions of both tech sentiment and digital‑asset optimism, could face sharp drawdowns if investors scramble for cash and safety.
This tension-between short‑term relief and longer‑term vulnerability-is what makes Li’s call so bold. Staying fully invested here effectively amounts to a wager that the ceasefire will stick, that oil flows will continue edging back toward normal, and that political leaders have sufficient incentive to avoid another spiral of escalation.
A high‑conviction peace trade
For active traders, Li’s stance is more than a macro take; it is a concrete positioning signal. Remaining bullish into strength after a geopolitical shock means betting that:
– The ceasefire holds and becomes a durable settlement rather than a brief pause.
– Trump’s deterrent threats, and the broader international pressure, are enough to dissuade further attempts to weaponize the strait.
– The current “melt‑up” phase in equities, Bitcoin proxies and altcoins has not yet exhausted itself.
If those conditions hold, investors who stayed in the market-or even added exposure into the Hormuz scare-could be rewarded with further upside as sidelined capital retreats from defensive trades and chases performance. Under that scenario, early profit‑taking might look premature.
If, however, any of those pillars crumble-be it through renewed attacks, policy missteps or an unrelated macro shock-Li’s refusal to trim risk could look, in hindsight, more like complacency than conviction. As he himself implicitly acknowledges, the outcome depends less on chart patterns and more on the real‑world movement of tankers through a narrow strip of water off Iran’s coast.
What Li’s view means for different types of investors
How to translate Li’s perspective into action depends heavily on time horizon and risk tolerance:
– Long‑term investors who see crypto and equities as multi‑year plays may read his comments as a reminder not to let short‑term geopolitical noise derail their strategy. For them, the Hormuz episode is another example of why consistent allocation beats trading every headline.
– Tactical traders might interpret the “no reason to take profits” claim as an indication that the risk‑on move can extend, but that does not preclude hedging. Options on indices, volatility instruments or oil futures can be used to protect against the tail risk of another shipping shock while still participating in the upside.
– Highly leveraged participants in Bitcoin, altcoins or momentum equities need to be more cautious. For them, Li’s optimism is only one data point. The same volatility that powered a rapid rebound can quickly reverse if sentiment flips, making position sizing and strict risk management essential.
The role of rotation and market structure
A key detail in Li’s argument is his emphasis on rotation rather than broad selling. When rallies are in their late stages, it is common to see simultaneous weakness across most risk assets as buyers thin out. Currently, he notes the opposite: leadership is changing, not disappearing.
The S&P 500 making new highs, MicroStrategy extending its Bitcoin bet and “Hawthorn‑style” altcoins taking turns on the leaderboard all point to a market where risk appetite is being reshuffled, not withdrawn. That pattern can sustain advances longer than many expect, because capital continuously seeks new narratives and vehicles rather than retreating entirely to cash.
Market structure also amplifies these dynamics. Systematic strategies, passive flows and derivatives‑driven hedging can all contribute to “grinding” markets higher when realized volatility falls and fear recedes, as has happened post‑ceasefire. Li’s optimism implicitly assumes that these mechanical forces will continue to support prices as long as no fresh shock emerges.
Balancing optimism with discipline
Li Hua Yi’s message is ultimately a challenge to the instinctive urge to “sell the bounce” after a scare. His view is that the combination of easing geopolitical tensions, record equity benchmarks and persistent institutional demand for Bitcoin creates a backdrop where prematurely cashing out could leave investors underexposed if the rally continues.
However, disciplined investors will pair that optimism with clear plans for what could go wrong. That means defining levels at which the thesis breaks-be it a renewed disruption in Hormuz, a sharp and sustained spike in oil prices, or evidence that institutional buyers are stepping back from crypto and high‑beta assets.
In a world where markets can reprice geopolitical risk in hours rather than weeks, the most robust strategy may be to recognize the validity of Li’s peace‑trade argument while still preparing for the opposite outcome. Staying invested need not mean staying unprotected.
For now, though, Li stands by his assessment: as long as tankers keep moving and risk assets keep rotating rather than collapsing, he sees “no reason” to hit the sell button. Whether that stance proves visionary or reckless will be decided not in trading rooms, but in the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.