HBAR price climbs on Hedera–FedEx deal, but bearish pressures linger
Hedera’s native token HBAR has staged a noticeable recovery in recent weeks, helped by a broad crypto market rebound and fresh enthusiasm around a new partnership with logistics giant FedEx. Yet despite the short-term upside, several underlying metrics suggest the rally may struggle to sustain, and the token could still revisit its recent lows.
HBAR price recovers, but remains far below 2025 peak
After a weak start to the year, HBAR bounced from a monthly low near $0.0735 and briefly climbed to about $0.1038. That represents a strong percentage gain over a short period, but the token is still trading well below its 2025 high around $0.3045.
The rebound has largely tracked the broader market. Rising optimism around potential additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, following the latest consumer inflation data, has improved risk sentiment. Bitcoin’s renewed strength and the general altcoin upswing have provided a favorable backdrop for tokens like HBAR to recover from oversold levels.
FedEx joins Hedera’s governance council
A key catalyst behind HBAR’s latest leg up was the announcement that FedEx has joined Hedera’s governing council. This body oversees key decisions on network strategy, development, and node governance, and already includes established corporations such as Tata Communications, LG, Mondelez, Google, Hitachi, and Deutsche Telekom.
For Hedera, bringing FedEx on board is a major credibility boost. It strengthens the narrative that the network is a serious enterprise-grade ledger capable of handling real-world use cases at scale, particularly in supply chain and logistics. For FedEx, the move signals a broader push to embed advanced digital infrastructure into its global operations.
Supply chains and trusted data: what FedEx wants from Hedera
FedEx has framed its involvement as part of a larger effort to modernize and secure the data flows underpinning global shipping. The company aims to help develop infrastructure that can track and verify the lifecycle of shipments across borders and between multiple stakeholders.
In that context, Hedera’s focus on fast, low-cost, and energy-efficient transactions, along with its timestamping and data integrity features, aligns well with logistics demands. According to FedEx leadership, as supply chains become more “digital-native,” there is a growing need to share and validate information among numerous parties without concentrating control in a single entity or increasing systemic risk. Distributed ledger technology is seen as a potential solution to that problem.
In practice, this could involve using Hedera to record shipment events, customs clearances, temperature logs for sensitive goods, and other checkpoints in a transparent and tamper-resistant way. If such solutions gain traction, they could generate recurring transaction volume and fee revenue for the network over time, which, in turn, would support long-term HBAR demand.
ETF demand cools: a warning signal for investors
Despite the positive headlines, one of the most notable red flags for HBAR is weakening interest in institutional-style products. A key example is the Canary HBAR ETF, which has seen no net inflows since February 9 of this year.
Year-to-date, the product has attracted around $6 million in new capital, bringing total cumulative inflows to about $90 million. While that is not insignificant, the recent stagnation suggests that larger, more conservative investors are not currently increasing their exposure to HBAR at the same pace as they did earlier. For a token that aspires to break into the mainstream institutional conversation, this flattening demand is a concern.
If ETF inflows remain dormant while spot prices move up, it can also indicate that the rally is being driven more by speculative traders than by long-term capital, making the move potentially fragile.
DeFi and stablecoin activity remain subdued
Another structural issue is the slowdown in Hedera’s on-chain ecosystem growth. The total value locked (TVL) across Hedera’s decentralized finance applications has slipped to roughly $39 million, which is modest compared not only with the leading DeFi chains but even with several second-tier networks.
Similarly, the aggregate market capitalization of stablecoins issued on Hedera sits at around $68 million, a comparatively small figure in an industry where stablecoin supply runs into the tens or hundreds of billions.
Low TVL and limited stablecoin liquidity can create a feedback loop: fewer DeFi opportunities mean less incentive for users and developers to build on or migrate to Hedera, which in turn restricts the breadth of use cases and transactional demand for HBAR. Without a vibrant on-chain economy, price rallies may remain largely narrative-driven rather than supported by deep, organic usage.
Technical picture: strong bounce into key resistance
On the daily chart, HBAR’s recovery from $0.07360 to the $0.1037–$0.1038 region stands out as a sharp short-term uptrend. This area, however, is not just any price level; it coincides with an important historical zone that acted as support back in October and December of the previous year.
Price has now revisited that region from below, forming what technicians often describe as a “break-and-retest” pattern: a formerly strong support is broken, then retested as resistance. Such a configuration frequently precedes a continuation of the prior bearish trend if bulls fail to reclaim the level convincingly.
Adding to the cautionary picture, HBAR is also confronting the 50-day moving average, which is capping the current advance. A clear rejection from both horizontal resistance and the moving average would increase the probability of a renewed downturn, with the year-to-date low around $0.073 emerging as a logical downside target.
Short-term scenarios: what traders should watch
From a trading perspective, the $0.103–$0.105 zone has become a critical battleground. A clean breakout above this region, accompanied by rising volume, could invalidate the bearish retest narrative and open the door to a more sustained recovery toward higher resistance levels.
Conversely, if HBAR continues to stall beneath this band and prints lower highs on decreasing volume, it would reinforce the idea that the recent bounce is mainly a relief rally within a broader downtrend. In that case, sellers may gradually regain control, and retests of $0.08 and then $0.073 would not be surprising.
Momentum indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), can help confirm which side is taking the upper hand. A failure of RSI to break into strong bullish territory while price is testing resistance would further support the bearish case.
Long-term outlook: partnership potential vs. adoption risk
Over the longer horizon, the Hedera–FedEx partnership is strategically significant. If FedEx translates its governance council role into active deployment of applications on Hedera — for example, digital bills of lading, shipment tracking tools, or compliance records — it could showcase Hedera as a real-world infrastructure layer for global trade.
Successful enterprise integrations often take time, though. There may be a long lag between headline announcements and meaningful on-chain activity. Investors should therefore distinguish between near-term price reactions to news and the slower, more fundamental impact on network usage and revenue.
Hedera also faces fierce competition from other smart contract and enterprise-focused networks, many of which are aggressively courting corporate partners and developer ecosystems. For Hedera to stand out, it will need not just big names on its council, but also a growing base of live applications, developer adoption, and measurable transaction volumes beyond speculative trading.
What HBAR holders should consider now
For existing HBAR holders, the current environment calls for a balanced approach. The recent rally offers an opportunity to reassess positions, especially for those who bought near the lows and are sitting on short-term gains.
Key questions to consider include:
– Does the FedEx partnership translate into clear, near-term usage metrics, or is it mainly strategic branding at this stage?
– Are ETF flows, DeFi TVL, and stablecoin liquidity showing signs of revival, or do they remain flat or declining?
– Is the technical structure improving, with higher highs and higher lows, or are rallies consistently rejected at major resistance levels?
Answers to these questions can help determine whether to hold, trim, or increase exposure, depending on individual risk tolerance and time horizon.
Risk management in a news-driven market
HBAR’s latest move illustrates how quickly sentiment can swing in response to corporate partnerships and macroeconomic expectations. However, rallies powered primarily by narrative can reverse just as fast if the follow-through on fundamentals is weak.
For traders and investors alike, risk management remains crucial: using position sizing, clear entry and exit plans, and awareness of key technical levels can make the difference between capitalizing on volatility and being caught on the wrong side of it.
Until on-chain metrics and institutional demand for HBAR show a more convincing upward trend, the token is likely to remain vulnerable to pullbacks, even as high-profile partners like FedEx add to Hedera’s visibility and long-term potential.