Dogecoin activity jumps while prices crumble as meme coins flirt with the trapdoor
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are sinking deeper into a selloff even as their underlying networks show a surge in usage, highlighting an increasingly stark gap between blockchain activity and token performance across the meme-coin space.
Over the past week, active addresses on the Dogecoin (DOGE) network climbed roughly 36%, rising to more than 71,400 unique wallets. On paper, that would usually be read as a constructive sign, suggesting renewed interest and participation. In practice, it has done little to arrest the price slide. DOGE has slipped another 3%, trading around $0.102, while Shiba Inu (SHIB) has fallen about 2% to approximately $0.0000066.
On-chain flows and chart structure are painting a more pessimistic picture. Significant net outflows, deteriorating technical setups, and multiple broken support zones indicate that both DOGE and SHIB remain exposed to further downside. The rise in transactions and active addresses appears more consistent with holders offloading tokens—distribution—rather than long-term accumulation.
Dogecoin: from cultural phenomenon to value erosion
Launched in 2013 as a joke, Dogecoin briefly transformed into a market spectacle in 2021, when its market capitalization ballooned to roughly $90 billion at the height of retail euphoria. That peak proved unsustainable: the coin has since shed more than 90% of that value.
Even a strong rally in late 2024 has not repaired the long-term damage. In 2025, DOGE remains down around 62% from its highs, and criticism of its fundamentals has grown louder. Unlike Bitcoin, which is increasingly framed as a digital store of value, or Ethereum, which underpins a vast ecosystem of decentralized applications, Dogecoin still lacks a robust, widely adopted use case beyond speculation and occasional tipping.
Its tokenomics deepen the vulnerability. DOGE has no hard cap on supply, and new coins continue to be minted, steadily diluting existing holders. In bullish phases, this inflation is often ignored; in bearish or uncertain markets, it becomes an additional drag. With no clear, game-changing catalysts on the horizon and broader risk appetite under pressure, a further drawdown of around 50% in 2026—potentially sending DOGE back toward its 2022 low near $0.05—is a realistic scenario rather than a fringe forecast.
Shiba Inu: extreme volatility without clear follow-through
Shiba Inu, another emblematic meme coin, has also been living up to its reputation for wild price swings. SHIB recently tagged a monthly low of $0.0000065 on February 1, following a local high of $0.0000097 on January 6. That kind of rapid up-and-down movement underscores how tightly SHIB trades to shifts in sentiment and liquidity conditions.
At the moment, SHIB is changing hands around $0.00000641, roughly 92% below its all-time high from October 2021. Technically, the token is trading beneath several important moving averages, confirming a bearish structure. While the relative strength index (RSI) suggests oversold conditions—a signal that would normally hint at an impending bounce—buyers have not yet stepped in with enough force to produce a meaningful reversal.
SHIB is now hovering around a critical support band near $0.00000638. If that floor fails to hold, chart watchers are eyeing $0.0000055 as the next logical downside target. A decisive move below support with rising volume would reinforce the bear case and could trigger forced selling from overleveraged traders.
Utility gap and ecosystem headwinds
The Shiba Inu ecosystem has been trying to evolve beyond its meme origins, but the transition has been slow and uneven. Daily transaction volumes remain relatively muted, and there is a lack of consistent, sticky utility that would anchor demand for the token.
Developers are working to change that narrative. One of the more ambitious steps is the planned integration of Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) in Q2 2026. FHE is a cutting-edge cryptographic technique that, if implemented effectively, could enhance privacy and security for users interacting with Shiba Inu’s ecosystem. In theory, this could open the door to more sophisticated applications and attract users who prioritize confidentiality in their on-chain activity.
However, these upgrades face two challenges: execution risk and timing. Technical integrations can be delayed or underdeliver on expectations, and markets may remain skeptical until they see real-world adoption. In the meantime, price action remains dominated by macro conditions, Bitcoin’s trend, and rotations within the speculative altcoin complex.
Regulation and the faint hope of institutional capital
One potential narrative tailwind for SHIB lies in the realm of regulated finance. The launch of a crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) by a large asset manager such as T. Rowe Price could, in theory, funnel more compliant, institutional capital into the broader digital asset market and create a friendlier environment for large-cap tokens.
Yet the odds of an ETF directly focused on meme coins or highly speculative altcoins being approved remain low under current regulatory frameworks. Regulators have prioritized products tied to Bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, large, established assets. For now, the ETF story is more of a distant, conditional upside scenario than a concrete driver of demand.
If—and it is a significant if—privacy upgrades land successfully and an ETF environment becomes more supportive, some projections suggest SHIB could trade in the $0.000015–$0.000025 range by 2027. More cautious estimates place it between $0.000010 and $0.000015. These ranges highlight both the scale of potential upside and the high level of uncertainty surrounding meme-coin valuation.
Key technical levels and metrics to monitor
For traders following Shiba Inu’s recovery prospects, a few chart points stand out. The nearest major resistance levels are clustered around $0.00000732, $0.0000078, and $0.00000851. Bulls will want to see SHIB reclaim and hold above these zones with convincing volume to argue that a more durable uptrend is forming.
Beyond price alone, several ecosystem metrics warrant close attention:
– Shibarium transaction volumes: Rising usage on the Shibarium network would signal that the ecosystem is gaining traction beyond short-term speculation.
– Token burn rates: A consistent, meaningful reduction in circulating supply could offset some selling pressure and gradually improve the supply-demand balance.
– Bitcoin’s performance: SHIB, like most altcoins, tends to track the broader crypto cycle. Sustained strength or weakness in Bitcoin often sets the tone for risk appetite across the board.
Dogecoin’s structural challenges in a maturing market
Dogecoin faces its own battle for relevance as the crypto market matures. In the early 2020s, a combination of social media hype, endorsements from high-profile figures, and a roaring bull market propelled DOGE far beyond what its fundamentals justified. Today, the environment is very different: investors are more selective, regulatory scrutiny is higher, and competition from other tokens—both serious and gimmicky—has intensified.
Without a clear roadmap that addresses scalability, utility, and long-term economic design, Dogecoin risks being sidelined as newer projects experiment with real-world applications, gaming integrations, and decentralized finance. Its open-ended supply and relatively slow pace of development make it harder to pitch as either “digital gold” or a next-generation platform asset.
Why rising on-chain activity is not always bullish
The current disconnect—spiking active addresses amid falling prices—illustrates an important nuance of blockchain analytics. More on-chain activity is not inherently positive. It can signal both accumulation (new buyers entering) and distribution (existing holders exiting), depending on context.
In periods of stress, increased activity often accompanies portfolio rebalancing, panic selling, or arbitrage between exchanges. When on-chain data is paired with heavy net outflows and broken support levels, as seen with DOGE and SHIB, the evidence tilts toward a distribution phase. For investors, this is a reminder that metrics must be interpreted together, not in isolation.
Risk management for meme-coin traders
For those still participating in meme-coin markets, the current environment calls for disciplined risk management. Several principles are particularly relevant:
– Position sizing: Allocating only a small portion of a portfolio to highly speculative assets can limit damage if the bearish scenario plays out.
– Time horizon: Short-term traders should be clear about their exit strategies, while long-term holders need to accept that extended drawdowns and high volatility are part of the package.
– Diversification: Concentrating solely in meme coins amplifies idiosyncratic risk. Even within crypto, spreading exposure across different sectors—layer-1s, DeFi, infrastructure, and stablecoins—can reduce reliance on a single narrative.
Psychology and the meme-coin narrative
Meme coins are as much a social and psychological phenomenon as they are a financial one. Their rapid ascents are often driven by humor, viral culture, and a sense of collective participation, not fundamental value. That same emotional intensity can reverse quickly when prices falter, leading to cascading selloffs as enthusiasm collapses.
As Dogecoin and Shiba Inu test fresh lows and critical supports, the question is whether their communities can reinvent the narrative around utility, innovation, and long-term relevance—or whether they will remain primarily vehicles for speculative cycles and short-lived manias.
Outlook: trapped between speculation and structural change
For now, the data suggests that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are caught in a difficult middle ground. On-chain participation is high, but much of it appears tied to short-term repositioning rather than confident, long-horizon buying. Technical structures are fragile, and both tokens trade far below their euphoric peaks.
Dogecoin’s lack of a compelling use case and inflationary design leave it particularly susceptible to deeper declines if market sentiment weakens further. Shiba Inu at least has a roadmap of privacy upgrades and ecosystem development, but it must prove that these initiatives translate into real adoption, not just marketing milestones.
Until that happens, meme coins will continue to test the trapdoor—dangling between the possibility of another speculative revival and the reality of a market that increasingly demands more than jokes and logos to sustain value.