XRP’s million-token wallets climb 32 as market cap falls 29%: Can whales really offset the weakness?
While XRP’s market capitalization has slipped by roughly 29% over the last three months, one group has been quietly moving in the opposite direction: large holders. The number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP has increased by 32 addresses over the same period, signaling that so‑called “whales” are using the price downturn to expand their exposure rather than cut risk.
This divergence between shrinking market cap and growing whale activity suggests that deep-pocketed investors see longer-term value in XRP, even as spot prices come under pressure. Instead of treating the decline as a reason to exit, they appear to be viewing it as an accumulation opportunity.
At the same time, XRP Ledger has continued to demonstrate relevance within institutional and infrastructure-focused use cases. Its role in stablecoin issuance, payment flows associated with Ripple’s solutions, and broader custody and tokenization frameworks helps underpin a fundamental demand narrative beyond pure speculation. That institutional utility does not immediately solve short-term price weakness, but it provides context for why large holders might be more comfortable buying into dips.
Whale accumulation vs. market selling
The recent expansion in million-token wallets indicates concentration of supply in fewer, larger hands. Historically, such phases can have two very different outcomes. On one hand, when whales accumulate during drawdowns, it can set the stage for later recoveries, as the available float in the market gradually tightens. On the other hand, high concentration also means that if these large entities eventually decide to take profits aggressively, they can amplify volatility on the way down.
In XRP’s case, the timing of the accumulation – during a 29% shrinkage in market cap – suggests that whales are acting as net buyers while a broad segment of the market is either de‑risking or sitting on the sidelines. If this pattern persists, it could create a more supportive environment once selling pressure eases and fresh demand appears, especially if macro conditions in the crypto market improve.
Network valuation: falling NVT supports the case
On-chain valuation metrics add another layer to the picture. XRP’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has fallen by about 4.13% in the last 24 hours, dropping to 276.4959. NVT is often described as a price-to-earnings type metric for blockchains: it compares the total network value (market cap) to the volume of value transacted over the network.
A downtrend in NVT generally implies that transaction activity is growing faster than the network’s valuation, or that price has fallen relative to usage. In XRP’s case, the recent slide in NVT indicates improving efficiency from a valuation standpoint: more economic activity per unit of market cap. This aligns with narratives around XRP Ledger’s real-world use in payments, settlements, and tokenized assets.
However, an NVT reading above 270 is still not “cheap” in absolute terms. It suggests that while the valuation backdrop is becoming more constructive, there is room for further improvement. A continued decline in NVT over time would strengthen the view that XRP’s price is increasingly supported by genuine network usage rather than purely speculative interest.
Can whales and NVT shifts truly absorb price weakness?
Whale accumulation and a falling NVT ratio together form a supportive medium- to long-term story: larger players are building positions, and on-chain activity is gradually justifying more of the valuation. Yet, neither of these factors guarantees short-term price stability.
In the near term, the market is dominated by liquidity dynamics, leverage, and trader sentiment. Even in fundamentally improving conditions, aggressive selling, liquidations, or broader risk-off moves in crypto can overwhelm constructive on-chain signals. The question, therefore, is not whether whales can “immediately” absorb all price weakness, but whether their behavior and the improving NVT trend can help form a durable base from which a recovery can later emerge.
If large holders continue to absorb supply on dips and do not flip into net sellers on rallies, they can gradually reduce the proportion of XRP actively trading on exchanges. Combined with consistent or rising network activity, this reduced float could magnify the price impact of renewed demand once the market turns positive.
Key technical levels: $0.9917 as the critical line in the sand
From a technical perspective, price action has not yet reflected the constructive on-chain backdrop. XRP has lost support at $1.0391 and is trading around $1.0224, putting bears in control of the short-term trend.
The nearest major support now sits at $0.9917. This level is critical: it represents both a psychological threshold below the current dollar area and a structural zone where buyers may try to step in, given the recent history of trading activity. A resolute defense of $0.9917 could help stabilize price and keep the prospect of a move back above $1.0391 alive.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 38.50, with its moving average sitting slightly higher at 40.89. RSI below 40 typically signals mounting bearish momentum, but also suggests that the asset is moving closer to oversold conditions where countertrend bounces become more likely. If XRP can hold above $0.9917 while RSI hovers in this zone, it could set up a relief rally.
A successful reclaim of $1.0391 would be an important early signal that selling pressure is losing dominance. If bulls manage to flip that level from resistance back into support, attention could shift toward the $1.1500 region as the next larger upside target. Conversely, a clean breakdown below $0.9917 would undermine the recovery scenario and could invite another leg lower, regardless of how aggressively whales have been accumulating.
Derivatives and liquidation clusters: a loaded battlefield
The derivatives market is adding extra tension around XRP’s current price band. Liquidation heatmaps show a dense concentration of long positions that would be forced out if price pushes lower, and a growing cluster of short positions that would be squeezed if price moves higher.
Substantial long-liquidation leverage appears just under the market, particularly around the $0.987 zone, with additional exposure extending slightly below. A move toward or below that area could trigger cascading liquidations of leveraged longs, amplifying downside volatility.
Above the spot price, short-liquidation clusters are forming rapidly starting just above $1.022 and extending toward the $1.027-$1.045 range. If XRP manages to reclaim $1.0391, these short positions may become vulnerable to a squeeze, potentially accelerating a recovery toward higher resistance levels.
Given that XRP has already broken below $1.0391, downside liquidity currently has the upper hand. Bears may attempt to drag price toward $0.9917 to flush out overleveraged longs before a potential defense by spot buyers and whales. Bulls, on the other hand, will be watching for any sign that shorts overextend and open themselves up to a sharp counter-move.
How much influence do whales really have?
Whale activity often attracts outsized attention, but their influence is not absolute. Large holders can:
– Support price indirectly by absorbing sell orders on the way down.
– Reduce circulating liquidity by moving coins into cold storage or long-term holdings.
– Provide a foundation for faster rallies once sentiment shifts.
However, whales cannot single-handedly fight a broad macro downtrend or systemic fear across the crypto market. If risk appetite vanishes and capital exits digital assets en masse, even steady accumulation by large wallets will struggle to keep prices from falling further. Their main impact is in shaping the depth of drawdowns and the speed and sustainability of recoveries, rather than completely overriding market forces.
Moreover, increased concentration is a double-edged sword. It can reduce day-to-day selling pressure if big players are not actively trading, but it also means that any future coordinated or coincidental selling from these wallets could create sharp corrections. Market participants should therefore treat whale accumulation as constructive but not as a guarantee.
What traders and investors should watch next
For those tracking XRP’s outlook in the near and medium term, several metrics and levels deserve close attention:
1. Price behavior around $0.9917
A strong bounce with rising volume would suggest that this support is meaningful and recognized by both retail and institutional participants. A clean break with follow-through selling would point to deeper downside.
2. Reclaiming and holding above $1.0391
This would be an early technical confirmation that bears are losing control, strengthening the argument for a move toward $1.1500 over time.
3. Continuation of whale accumulation
If the number of million-token wallets keeps rising even in the face of volatility, it reinforces the narrative of strategic, long-term positioning.
4. Further declines in NVT
A sustained trend lower in NVT, driven by higher transaction volumes or stable on-chain usage, would suggest that fundamentals are catching up with – or even outpacing – price.
5. Derivatives positioning and funding rates
Extreme leverage on either side often precedes sharp liquidations and sudden moves. Watching where liquidation clusters form can offer clues about likely short-term volatility pockets.
Medium-term scenario: building a base vs. rolling over
If XPR’s whales maintain their buying pace, NVT continues to ease, and $0.9917 holds as a solid support, the current phase could eventually be remembered as a base-building period. In that scenario, price may remain range-bound or choppy in the short term, but the groundwork for a more sustained uptrend would be quietly forming beneath the surface.
Under a more negative scenario – where $0.9917 fails, macro conditions worsen, and leverage unwinds violently – XRP could revisit lower levels before any durable recovery. Even then, ongoing accumulation by strong hands and a resilient on-chain profile would likely shorten the duration and depth of the downtrend compared to a situation where large holders were net sellers.
Long-term implications for XRP’s valuation
Beyond the current price range, the combination of:
– Growing whale concentration
– A gradually improving NVT profile
– Persistent institutional and infrastructure use cases on XRP Ledger
collectively points to an asset whose long-term value proposition is still intact, even if short-term market psychology is fragile. The critical question is how long it will take for these structural factors to translate into a more supportive and less volatile price environment.
If network usage continues to expand and institutional adoption of XRP Ledger-based solutions deepens, XRP’s valuation could become increasingly anchored in real economic activity. In such a context, periods of heavy volatility and drawdowns may increasingly be framed as cyclical rather than existential.
Bottom line: Can whales absorb the weakness?
Whales cannot completely neutralize every bout of selling pressure, especially in a risk-off market. But their decision to grow their XRP holdings while market cap is shrinking, combined with a falling NVT ratio and persistent network relevance, suggests that the foundations beneath XRP are quietly strengthening.
Whether that translates into an immediate rebound depends heavily on how price reacts around $0.9917 and whether bulls can reclaim $1.0391 in the coming sessions. Over a longer horizon, if accumulation continues and on-chain activity keeps rising, today’s price weakness could end up providing the fuel for tomorrow’s recovery.