Galaxy Digital trims CLARITY Act forecast as Scott presses for summer vote
Galaxy Digital has sharply marked down the likelihood that the CLARITY Act will become law by 2026, cutting its odds to an even 50%. The downgrade comes just as senior Republicans, led by Senator Tim Scott, are trying to keep momentum alive for a vote shortly after the Senate returns from its current recess.
Behind the scenes, the bill is still very much in flux. While senators are away from Washington until July 13, staffers from Congress, officials from the executive branch, and representatives from the digital asset industry have been locked in intensive talks. Their goal: merge and reconcile separate crypto market structure proposals that originated in the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee into a single bill that can survive a floor vote.
These negotiations hinge on a handful of particularly sensitive issues. Ethics rules for lawmakers and regulators interacting with the crypto sector, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing safeguards, and the precise regulatory perimeter for spot digital asset markets all remain unresolved. Without agreement on these core points, the bill risks stalling before it even reaches the Senate floor.
Even if a compromise text is ready by the time senators return, the legislative calendar poses another obstacle. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled that the National Defense Authorization Act will be the chamber’s first priority in mid-July. That means formal consideration of the CLARITY Act could easily slip into the second half of July or the first days of August, shrinking an already tight window.
Timing is not a mere detail. Many analysts believe the bill needs to clear the Senate before lawmakers depart for the August recess if it is to retain a credible path to final passage in this congressional term. Missing that slot would push any further action into the fall and potentially into 2027, especially if election dynamics and competing legislative priorities crowd out complex, technical financial legislation.
The arithmetic in the Senate is equally unforgiving. The CLARITY Act will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans currently control 53 seats, but their caucus is not monolithic on digital asset policy. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul previously opposed the GENIUS Act, another high-profile crypto bill, underscoring that party-line unity on market structure reform cannot be assumed. That makes the hunt for Democratic votes essential.
Despite those headwinds, senior Republicans are pushing to keep the bill on the summer agenda. Senator Tim Scott, a leading voice on financial policy within the party, publicly backed Thune’s tentative mid-July timeline for bringing crypto market structure legislation to the floor. Scott has emphasized that the proposal aims to deliver clearer guardrails for digital assets, bolster consumer protections, and anchor crypto innovation in the United States rather than driving developers and capital offshore. He has framed passage of the bill as a tangible economic benefit for American households and businesses.
Market observers, however, are taking a more guarded view. By cutting its assessment of the CLARITY Act’s chances to 50%, Galaxy Digital is effectively signaling that political risk and procedural bottlenecks are now as likely to derail the effort as they are to let it through. The firm’s revised estimate encapsulates both the uncertainty around the final text and the real possibility that the bill simply runs out of calendar.
The next two weeks of closed-door talks are therefore crucial. Negotiators must not only stitch together a unified draft but also ensure it can withstand attacks from both skeptics of crypto and critics who argue the bill does not go far enough to protect investors or the banking system. Whether they can land on a version that attracts a durable, bipartisan coalition will determine if the CLARITY Act reaches the Senate floor this summer or loses momentum heading into the recess.
For the crypto industry, the stakes go beyond this single piece of legislation. The CLARITY Act is designed to answer some of the core questions that have plagued the sector for years: Which tokens fall under securities law? What is the role of commodities regulation? How should centralized exchanges and other intermediaries be supervised? By drawing clearer jurisdictional lines and codifying regulatory responsibilities, the bill could finally reduce the legal gray zones that have fueled enforcement clashes and fragmented guidance.
At the same time, the act is controversial for another reason: it quietly erects barriers to the launch of a fully-fledged retail central bank digital currency in the United States. By restricting or effectively banning a US CBDC, the proposal would lock in a preference for private stablecoins and bank-issued digital instruments over a direct Fed-backed token. Supporters argue this protects financial privacy and limits government reach into citizens’ transactions. Critics counter that it could leave the US lagging behind other major economies that are experimenting with official digital currencies.
If the bill does not pass by August, the path forward becomes far more uncertain. A delay would likely mean reopening negotiations in a new political environment, potentially under different committee leadership and with reshuffled priorities. Election cycles, changes in control of one or both chambers, or a new administration could dramatically alter the appetite for sweeping crypto legislation. Investors and companies would be left in limbo, operating under a patchwork of existing rules and ad hoc enforcement actions rather than a coherent framework.
This prolonged uncertainty carries real costs. Institutional players often cite regulatory clarity as a precondition for committing serious capital to blockchain-based infrastructure, tokenization projects, and digital asset custody. Venture funding for US-based crypto startups is also sensitive to the regulatory climate; a clear, durable set of rules could help reverse the trend of firms relocating to more predictable jurisdictions. Conversely, another failed attempt at comprehensive legislation may reinforce the perception that the US is an unpredictable environment for crypto businesses.
Politically, the CLARITY Act has also become a proxy for broader debates. Some lawmakers see it primarily as a consumer protection measure, stressing the need to reduce fraud, pump-and-dump schemes, and opaque token distributions. Others frame it as a competition and national security issue, arguing that without a modernized regulatory regime, the US risks ceding financial innovation to other countries. And lurking in the background are concerns about conflicts of interest, lobbying pressure, and the financial activities of political figures with substantial exposure to the sector.
For retail investors, including holders of major tokens that often dominate headlines, the bill’s trajectory will shape more than just sentiment. Clearer rules could affect how exchanges list assets, how stablecoins are backed and audited, and how new token issuances are structured. That, in turn, would influence liquidity, access for US customers, and the kinds of products that brokers and financial advisers are willing to offer mainstream clients.
Over the longer term, the CLARITY Act’s fate will also influence how US regulators approach innovation more generally. A successful, balanced bill could become a template for adapting legacy financial statutes to emerging technologies, demonstrating that Congress can update the rulebook rather than rely solely on enforcement and interpretive guidance. A collapse of the effort could push agencies to continue setting de facto policy through case-by-case actions, a route that many in the industry view as inefficient and unpredictable.
As the July deadline approaches, all these threads converge on a narrow decision window. If negotiators can finalize a compromise that satisfies enough moderates in both parties, the CLARITY Act may still secure a spot on the Senate calendar before the recess and keep its prospects alive. If they fall short, Galaxy Digital’s 50% odds may prove optimistic, and the sector could be facing yet another multi-year wait for comprehensive, legislated rules of the road.