Is Bitcoin finally entering a calmer phase, or are current signs just a pause before the next big move? Recent on-chain data suggests that large holders – so‑called whales – now control roughly 35.8% of the entire Bitcoin supply, and their behavior is becoming a crucial piece of the market puzzle.
Whales tighten their grip on BTC supply
Analytics platform Santiment highlighted that wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC now collectively own about 35.82% of the circulating supply. In absolute terms, this cohort has accumulated around 7.17 million BTC – the highest whale balance seen in the past three months.
This accumulation has been particularly visible around the 61,500 dollar price area, which appears to act as a strategic buy zone for these deep‑pocketed investors. Historically, such periods of aggressive whale buying during price weakness have often coincided with late-stage corrections or early accumulation phases ahead of new bullish cycles.
However, whale buying alone does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal. The broader macro backdrop, miner behavior and overall liquidity conditions still play decisive roles in where Bitcoin heads next.
Key demand zone between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars
From both a technical and on‑chain perspective, the 60,000-70,000 dollar range has emerged as a critical structural support area for Bitcoin. On-chain data suggests that roughly 20% of the circulating BTC supply changed hands within this band – one of the largest recorded transfers from “weak hands” to “strong hands” in the asset’s history.
Such a redistribution typically signals that short‑term, speculative holders have been shaken out, with long‑term, higher‑conviction buyers stepping in. That kind of reshuffling can provide a robust price floor over the medium term, as new owners tend to be less sensitive to short‑term volatility.
Yet, despite this powerful on‑chain support zone, the market has not yet reached a point that can confidently be called “stabilized.”
Rally, retracement, and shaken confidence
Bitcoin’s recovery in March and April brought a wave of renewed optimism after previous corrections. Prices pushing higher helped restore some bullish sentiment and increased risk appetite among traders and investors.
That mood shifted quickly in early June, when BTC slipped back below the 60,000 dollar mark. The drop under such a psychologically and technically important level dented confidence again, especially among newer market participants who had bought near recent highs.
So, while the 60,000-70,000 dollar band remains an area of heavy historical trading activity and strong buyer interest, the market’s inability to decisively reclaim the upper end of that range has kept volatility and uncertainty elevated.
Long‑term holders are quietly taking profits
A notable and somewhat counterintuitive trend is that long‑term Bitcoin holders – investors who have held their coins for extended periods – have been consistently offloading part of their stacks. This profit‑taking is common after strong rallies, as early buyers lock in gains.
At the same time, Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have continued to decline. Fewer coins on exchanges typically imply reduced immediate selling pressure, since coins held in private wallets are statistically less likely to be sold on short notice.
Together, these trends paint a nuanced picture: seasoned holders are trimming positions, but much of the circulating supply is being moved to safer storage rather than sitting on exchanges ready to be dumped. That dynamic can dampen sharp downside spikes, even if it doesn’t eliminate them entirely.
Institutional accumulation and strategic buying
Large institutional buyers and corporate treasuries have also continued adding to their positions, even amid the recent turbulence. Strategy, for example, reportedly increased its Bitcoin holdings again last week, reinforcing the narrative that major players still see long‑term value at current levels.
Such accumulation during drawdowns tends to underpin the market, creating layers of demand on deeper dips. For many of these entities, Bitcoin is viewed less as a short‑term trade and more as a strategic asset with multi‑year potential, making them more comfortable buying during periods of fear and uncertainty.
Still, the presence of well‑capitalized buyers does not make the market immune to further corrections. If macro conditions worsen or liquidity tightens, even strong hands can be forced to adjust exposure.
Miner stress remains unresolved
One of the clearest signs that the current cycle may not have fully entered its extreme bear phase is ongoing miner stress. Mining companies face higher operational costs, particularly after halving events that reduce block rewards. When prices stagnate or fall while difficulty remains elevated, margins compress.
Stressed miners may be forced to sell more of their BTC reserves to cover expenses. This can introduce additional supply into the market at inconvenient times, capping rallies or deepening corrections. AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that this miner pressure has not fully abated, which is another reason to be cautious about declaring the market stable.
Until miner capitulation or a clear improvement in profitability appears, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to occasional waves of forced selling from this segment of the ecosystem.
Bitcoin vs gold: Diverging reactions to the Fed
Macro factors add another layer of complexity. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently compared gold’s and Bitcoin’s responses to the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
Gold briefly dropped to roughly 4,220 dollars before quickly recovering the 4,300 dollar area, showing resilience and renewed buying interest. Bitcoin, in contrast, was struggling to hold short‑term support around 64,000 dollars at the same time.
This divergence underscores an important point: in the current environment, capital appears to be favoring defensive, traditionally “safe” assets like gold over higher‑beta, risk assets such as Bitcoin. If gold continues to attract sustained inflows while BTC lingers around the 63,500 dollar lows, it would confirm Bitcoin’s relative weakness against classic hedges.
Is Bitcoin stabilizing or just consolidating?
Against this backdrop, the question of stabilization becomes more nuanced. On the one hand, we see clear signs of structural strength:
– Whales and institutions actively accumulating around key support zones
– A vast amount of supply having changed hands between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars
– Exchange reserves trending lower, reducing immediate sell pressure
On the other hand, there are strong signals that the cycle has not fully cleansed itself:
– Persistent miner stress and potential for continued forced selling
– Long‑term holders gradually distributing coins into the market
– Underperformance relative to defensive assets in a cautious macro setting
What the market is likely experiencing now is a broad consolidation phase rather than full‑fledged stabilization. Consolidation can last weeks or months, characterized by choppy price action within a wide range, as supply and demand slowly find a new equilibrium.
What to expect as whales control over a third of supply
The fact that whales now control about 35.8% of the Bitcoin supply has several important implications:
1. Higher concentration risk
With more coins in fewer hands, market moves driven by large players can become more abrupt. If whales continue to buy dips, they can help support price. Conversely, if macro conditions prompt them to reduce exposure, selling waves could be powerful.
2. Potential for stronger bottoms
When influential, well‑capitalized holders accumulate at specific price areas, those zones often become strong long‑term support. The ongoing whale interest around 61,500 dollars increases the odds that this region will remain a critical battleground for bulls and bears.
3. Reduced short‑term selling from retail
As coins migrate from weaker hands to more patient whales or long‑term holders, speculative selling pressure tends to decrease. This can gradually smooth out volatility, though not eliminate it.
4. Longer reaction times to macro shocks
Whales generally operate on longer timeframes and may not react instantly to every headline. That can add a layer of stability compared with a market dominated by short‑term traders, but when they do adjust, the impact can be pronounced.
Could forced selling still drag prices lower?
Despite the encouraging signs of accumulation, the cycle of forced selling appears incomplete. Miners under pressure, leveraged traders facing liquidations and overextended holders can all contribute to additional downside, especially if BTC loses the 60,000 dollar support convincingly.
If macro conditions deteriorate – for example, if risk assets broadly sell off on renewed recession fears or more hawkish monetary policy expectations – Bitcoin could face a fresh wave of selling, even with strong hands in the background. In such a scenario, price could probe lower support zones before a durable bottom forms.
Paradoxically, that kind of washout often marks the beginning of the most powerful recovery phases, as panic sellers exit and patient capital steps in more aggressively.
How traders and investors can interpret the current phase
For short‑term traders, the current environment remains challenging: whipsaw movements, conflicting signals and macro uncertainty all raise risk. Range‑bound strategies and disciplined risk management are likely to be more effective than chasing breakouts until a clearer trend emerges.
For longer‑term investors, the data suggests a different picture. The massive transfer of supply into the 60,000-70,000 dollar range, combined with ongoing whale and institutional accumulation, points to this region being a historically meaningful zone for building or adding to positions – assuming one accepts Bitcoin’s high‑risk nature.
What matters most is aligning time horizons and risk tolerance with strategy. Those focused on multi‑year outcomes may view current price action as noise within a larger adoption and monetization cycle. Those trading on days or weeks must respect the potential for sharp, news‑driven moves in either direction.
The bottom line: not stable yet, but structurally evolving
Bitcoin is not yet in a fully “stable” state. Volatility remains high, miner stress persists and macro headwinds have not disappeared. However, under the surface, the asset’s ownership structure is evolving in a way that could support longer‑term resilience.
Whales controlling roughly 35.8% of supply, the deep demand pocket between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars and declining exchange balances all suggest that capital with stronger conviction is gradually taking over from short‑term speculators.
Whether this transition leads to a renewed uptrend in the near term will depend heavily on how global risk appetite, monetary policy and miner behavior develop. For now, Bitcoin appears to be in a critical consolidation phase – one where the actions of whales and long‑term holders will quietly shape the next major move.