Bitcoin price outlook as Bernstein flags possible bottom for crypto stocks this quarter
Bitcoin has surrendered more than 30% from its yearly peak as a wave of macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks ripples through risk assets. Yet even as volatility weighs on the market, analysts at Bernstein argue that crypto‑related equities may be closing in on a cyclical low before a potential recovery later this quarter.
Bitcoin retraces from record highs
After a powerful start to the year, Bitcoin’s rally stalled abruptly. On January 15, the benchmark cryptocurrency surged nearly 12% in a single move to reach a new yearly high of $97,538. Since then, the tide has turned: by the time of writing, BTC has slid roughly 31% to around $67,525, erasing a large portion of those gains.
The reversal has not occurred in isolation. Investors have been forced to reassess risk exposure as a series of external shocks hit global markets. Concerns about trade and tariffs in the United States, driven by policies associated with President Donald Trump, have reignited fears of a broader economic slowdown. Those jitters were then amplified by the outbreak of a new conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, which has rattled energy markets and tightened financial conditions worldwide.
Macro headwinds and the Fed’s hawkish stance
These developments have unfolded against an already fragile macro backdrop. Inflation remains a concern in several major economies, and central banks – particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve – have been reluctant to pivot decisively toward easier monetary policy. The Fed’s persistently hawkish tone, centered on keeping rates elevated for longer, has reduced liquidity and made speculative assets less attractive.
This combination of geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions has pushed many investors toward cash and defensive sectors. High‑beta assets like cryptocurrencies, which had benefited from abundant liquidity and optimism earlier in the cycle, are now bearing the brunt of the risk‑off shift.
Crypto‑linked stocks tumble, but Bernstein sees opportunity
The weakness in Bitcoin has spilled over into public companies whose core businesses are tied to digital assets. Bernstein’s analysts note that stocks associated with crypto – including exchanges, broker‑dealers, and tokenization platforms such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure – have fallen nearly 60% from their recent highs.
That magnitude of decline, they argue, is disproportionate to the underlying fundamentals. Despite the market turmoil, many of these firms have continued to expand product offerings, build infrastructure, and grow their user bases. From Bernstein’s perspective, the market is pricing in a level of pessimism that overlooks the long‑term growth potential of the broader crypto ecosystem.
In a recent note, the firm characterized the current environment as a rare chance to buy exposure to what they describe as “trillion‑dollar markets with years of growth” at steep discounts. They believe the sell‑off has been driven more by macro fear and sentiment than by any structural deterioration in the businesses themselves.
Timing the bottom: Bernstein’s Q1 earnings call
Crucially, Bernstein does not expect an immediate turnaround. The analysts anticipate that the weakness in both Bitcoin and crypto‑linked equities could persist until companies begin reporting first‑quarter earnings. In their view, that reporting season – running through April – may serve as a catalyst for a market bottom.
If that timeline is correct, Bitcoin could remain under pressure for several more weeks, with heightened volatility as investors digest macro headlines and early corporate results. Once earnings provide clearer evidence of operational resilience at major crypto firms, sentiment could start to stabilize and gradually improve.
Technical picture: key levels in focus
From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin’s chart has turned more cautious. On the daily timeframe, BTC has dropped below a descending trendline that previously acted as a dynamic support zone where buyers repeatedly stepped in. Losing that level suggests the bulls are no longer in firm control.
Momentum indicators reinforce that bearish tilt. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines have formed a bearish crossover and are sloping downward, signaling that negative momentum remains in play. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting lower within a descending channel, a typical sign that sellers are dominating and that rallies may be sold rather than extended.
For now, traders are watching the $65,000 area as a critical psychological and technical support. If bulls manage to defend this zone, Bitcoin could attempt to re‑establish a base for a potential rebound. A decisive break below $65,000, however, would likely embolden bears and open the door to a retest of the yearly lows near $60,000.
On the upside, the $69,000 region stands out as the immediate resistance to reclaim. This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing. A sustained move back above $69,000 would hint at a shift in momentum, suggesting that buyers are regaining confidence and that the correction might be losing steam.
Crypto equities: downgraded targets, but still “outperform”
While Bernstein has trimmed its price targets for several crypto‑related stocks to reflect the tougher macro environment and deteriorating sentiment, the firm has not abandoned a constructive stance. It continues to rate major players such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure as “outperform,” arguing that the current slump stems from external pressures rather than company‑specific failures.
In Bernstein’s framework, these businesses remain well‑positioned to benefit if and when Bitcoin and the wider digital asset market recover. They offer diversified revenue streams – including trading fees, custody, staking services, tokenization, and in some cases traditional brokerage – which could scale significantly as adoption deepens and institutional participation grows.
The analysts also emphasize that, historically, equity markets often overreact to short‑term macro scares. If earnings results demonstrate solid user engagement, prudent cost controls, and ongoing product development, investor confidence in crypto stocks could rebound more quickly than in the underlying tokens.
What could drive the next leg for Bitcoin?
Beyond the immediate noise, several factors could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming quarters:
1. Geopolitical de‑escalation
A reduction in tensions involving Iran and greater clarity on U.S. trade and tariff policy could ease fears around global growth and energy supply. As uncertainty declines, risk appetite typically improves, which might support renewed inflows into Bitcoin and other digital assets.
2. Central bank policy shifts
Any indication that the Federal Reserve or other major central banks are preparing to cut rates more aggressively than currently expected would likely be positive for BTC. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin and have historically boosted speculative segments of the market.
3. Institutional demand and ETF flows
The role of institutional players – asset managers, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries – remains crucial. A return to net inflows into Bitcoin‑focused investment products and exchange‑traded funds could provide a more stable, long‑duration source of demand than retail trading alone.
4. On‑chain health and network activity
Metrics such as transaction volumes, active addresses, and long‑term holder behavior can offer clues about the underlying strength of the network. Resilient or rising on‑chain activity during price drawdowns often signals that the long‑term thesis remains intact even as short‑term traders exit.
Bearish and bullish scenarios for the coming months
Given the current environment, several paths are plausible:
– Bearish continuation scenario
If geopolitical risks escalate further and the Fed doubles down on hawkish rhetoric, Bitcoin could break convincingly below $65,000 and test, or even undercut, the yearly lows around $60,000. Such a move might trigger additional liquidations in leveraged positions and exacerbate volatility across crypto and related equities.
– Sideways consolidation
BTC could also spend an extended period oscillating between $65,000 and $69,000 as the market digests incoming data. In this scenario, both bulls and bears would be repeatedly frustrated, with no decisive breakout in either direction until a clear macro or earnings catalyst emerges.
– Constructive recovery
Should macro data soften without signaling a full‑blown recession, and if Q1 earnings from crypto companies surprise positively, Bitcoin might reclaim $69,000 and begin grinding higher. Re‑entering a higher trading range would likely coincide with stabilization in crypto stocks and gradual multiple expansion as investors re‑rate the sector.
Implications for crypto‑linked stocks
For companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure, the path forward is tightly intertwined with both BTC’s direction and broader market sentiment. However, their performance is not strictly one‑to‑one with Bitcoin’s price.
These firms can benefit from:
– Higher volatility, which tends to boost trading volumes and fee income, even if prices trend lower in the short term.
– Product diversification, such as derivatives, staking, institutional services, and tokenization platforms, which can offset cyclical downturns in spot trading.
– Regulatory clarity, which, while sometimes painful in the near term, can ultimately support mainstream adoption and institutional comfort.
Bernstein’s argument is that the current 60% drawdown from recent highs has already priced in a harsh macro scenario. If earnings season reveals more resilience than feared, there is room for these stocks to rerate, particularly if management teams demonstrate disciplined cost control and clear roadmaps for growth.
Longer‑term perspective amid short‑term fear
While near‑term charts and headlines appear daunting, Bitcoin’s longer‑term story is defined less by month‑to‑month price swings and more by structural themes: digital scarcity, growing institutional acceptance, and its evolving role as a macro asset in diversified portfolios.
Cycles of euphoria and fear are inherent to nascent, high‑growth markets. Each major drawdown historically has shaken out leverage and speculative excess, setting the stage for subsequent periods of more sustainable growth and innovation. The current correction, shaped by geopolitics and monetary policy, fits into that broader pattern.
For investors and observers, the key in the coming weeks will be to watch how Bitcoin behaves around the $65,000 and $60,000 support levels, whether it can reclaim $69,000 with conviction, and how Q1 earnings from crypto‑exposed companies line up with Bernstein’s cautiously optimistic thesis. Those signals will help determine whether this downturn is merely another sharp but temporary detour in Bitcoin’s trajectory – or the beginning of a deeper, more prolonged reset.