Altcoins are unlikely to revisit their former peaks, argues analyst
Cryptocurrency markets have changed so profoundly over the past few years that most altcoins may never reclaim their previous all‑time highs, according to market analyst Inmortal. What used to be relatively repeatable, retail-driven boom-and-bust cycles centered around Bitcoin halvings are being replaced by a structurally different environment dominated by institutional capital and an overwhelming number of new tokens.
From simple cycles to a fragmented market
Back in 2018, the crypto landscape was comparatively small and easier to map. Roughly 1,000 coins were actively traded, and market behavior followed patterns that many traders could recognize. Participants frequently rotated capital between altcoin–Bitcoin pairs, riding speculative waves before selling into strength after the post‑halving bull runs.
Through to 2021, retail investors largely steered these cycles. Bitcoin’s halving dates had strong psychological weight: they were treated as almost mechanical catalysts for new bull markets. Price action tended to echo previous cycles closely enough that “four‑year cycle” models became a standard tool for both traders and commentators.
According to Inmortal, this framework no longer fits current conditions. What was once a relatively closed ecosystem with a limited number of assets has mutated into a sprawling market with thousands of tokens, each vying for a slice of the same capital pool.
Institutions reshape the playing field
The most significant change, the analyst contends, is the influx of institutional money and how it is being deployed. Over the last few years, large funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries have funneled billions of dollars into crypto – but not evenly across the board.
Instead of providing a rising tide for the entire altcoin space, institutional inflows have overwhelmingly favored a narrow group of major assets: primarily Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and a handful of other large‑cap tokens. This concentration has deepened liquidity and stability at the top of the market while leaving smaller coins relatively starved of sustainable capital.
At the same time, 2025 alone saw the launch of thousands of new tokens. Each new asset fragments liquidity further, stretching the available capital across an ever-widening set of speculative opportunities. For the average altcoin, this means less buying power during rallies and weaker support during downturns.
The retail misconception about “institutional rescue”
Retail investors, according to Inmortal, misjudged how institutional participation would play out. Many assumed that once big money entered the space, it would lift the entire market, pushing not only Bitcoin but also mid- and low-cap altcoins to new highs.
The reality has been the opposite. Institutions tend to favor assets with deep liquidity, regulatory clarity, and established narratives. That pushes them toward Bitcoin as a macro asset, Ether as the dominant smart‑contract platform, Solana as a high‑throughput contender, and perhaps a small cluster of other blue chips.
Retail capital, in contrast, has continued to chase short‑lived narratives: meme coins, AI tokens, gaming coins, and various “meta” trades that surge and collapse in months. This split dynamic – institutional money in majors, retail money in rotating themes – further undermines the odds of broad altcoin recovery.
Why 99% of altcoins may never see old highs again
Inmortal’s projection is stark: under current structural conditions, an estimated 99% of altcoins are unlikely to revisit their previous all‑time highs. The analyst’s reasoning rests on three pillars:
1. Capital concentration – The share of total market capitalization held by top assets keeps increasing. If most new institutional inflows go into a few large coins, little remains to push smaller projects to prior peaks.
2. Liquidity dilution – With thousands of tokens live and more launching constantly, attention and liquidity scatter. Even during broad uptrends, few altcoins can attract the sustained interest required to replicate earlier parabolic moves.
3. Shorter narrative cycles – Hype cycles have accelerated. Tokens can peak within weeks of launching, then bleed for months or years with no fundamental catalyst to revive them.
Under such conditions, many altcoins effectively become historical artifacts: they may continue trading, but only as illiquid, heavily discounted assets relative to their glory days.
Four‑year cycle models lose their grip
Traditional crypto cycle theory revolved around Bitcoin’s four‑year halving schedule. Earlier on, this simple framework worked reasonably well because the market was dominated by retail traders, and institutional sophistication was largely absent.
As halving-centric models became common wisdom, however, their predictive edge eroded. By 2022, a popular projection called for a cycle top around late 2025; the actual peak arrived closer to October 2025, roughly in line with expectations. But since then, the market has started to drift away from the historical script.
Crucially, the analyst argues that market structure – not just time-based halving events – now plays a far greater role. Capital flows, regulatory pressures, institutional risk frameworks, and macro conditions all interact in ways that do not neatly sync with a four‑year rhythm. In such an environment, relying solely on halving models can mislead both traders and long‑term investors.
A faster, different kind of downturn
Previous cycles, such as the 2018–2021 period, followed a familiar pattern: a sharp drawdown of around 75% from the peak, followed by more than a year of choppy sideways consolidation before the next leg higher. Today’s decline, Inmortal notes, looks different.
The current downtrend has unfolded much more quickly, compressing a large portion of the price damage into a shorter timeframe. Yet key long‑term support zones – notably the 200‑week moving average on major assets – have so far held firm. That resilience suggests the market is not experiencing a classic cycle termination, where supports break decisively and capitulation persists for many months.
Instead, the analyst views the current conditions as a “mid‑cycle reset” rather than the onset of a deep, multi‑year bear market.
Mid‑cycle reset: 80–90% of the drop already done?
Under this mid‑cycle thesis, Inmortal estimates that the market may have already completed 80–90% of the downside move typically expected after a major peak. Rather than bracing for another long stretch of brutal losses, the analyst anticipates a shorter consolidation period – roughly 200 days of sideways to mildly volatile trading – before a new expansion phase.
This outlook sharply diverges from the consensus expectation of a prolonged bear market mirroring earlier cycles. It implies that while sentiment remains depressed and prices subdued, the structural foundation of the market is stronger than at equivalent points in past downturns.
However, this relative resilience does not translate into good news for most altcoins.
Why a healthier market can still be deadly for altcoins
A key nuance in Inmortal’s argument is that a more mature, institutionally influenced market is not necessarily favorable to speculative altcoins. In fact, the very factors that make the market more robust – deeper liquidity in top assets, clearer regulation, professional risk management – can accelerate the decline of weaker projects.
Capital becomes more discriminating as the ecosystem grows up. Projects without real users, revenue, or defensible technology struggle to justify high valuations once the easy liquidity of early bull cycles dries up. Many altcoins that rallied purely on hype in past cycles are now facing a harsher reality: they must either evolve into sustainable businesses or fade into obscurity.
In this context, a renewed market expansion may be heavily skewed toward a small set of winners, rather than lifting the entire altcoin universe.
Implications for altcoin investors
For holders of legacy altcoins that once posted dramatic all‑time highs, this analysis is sobering. Waiting passively for a repeat of the last cycle’s blow‑off top could mean sitting in assets that never meaningfully recover.
Inmortal’s view suggests several practical takeaways:
– Reevaluate old bags: Many projects that peaked in previous bull runs have lost developer activity, user traction, or narrative relevance. Assuming they will simply “return to ATH” ignores the structural shift in capital flows.
– Prioritize liquidity and fundamentals: Assets with deep order books, growing on‑chain usage, and credible roadmaps stand a better chance of benefiting from future expansions than thinly traded, narrative-only tokens.
– Accept that cycles evolve: Relying on outdated models can lock investors into unrealistic expectations. Acknowledging that the four‑year template may be breaking down is crucial for adjusting strategy.
Could some altcoins still outperform?
Despite the grim forecast for the majority, it is unlikely that every altcoin is doomed. Historically, each new market phase has produced a handful of breakout winners outside the established blue chips. These are typically projects that:
– Solve a real problem with a clear market fit
– Capture a powerful new narrative (such as infrastructure, scaling, or real‑world assets)
– Attract sustained developer ecosystems and institutional interest
The challenge is that identifying such outliers early is extremely difficult, and backward‑looking bets on yesterday’s heroes often underperform. In other words, while some altcoins will almost certainly generate outsized returns, the probability that they are the same coins that led the last cycle is low.
What would invalidate the “no new ATH” thesis?
No market thesis is absolute. For Inmortal’s projection to fail, several developments would likely need to occur:
– A major shift in institutional appetite toward higher‑risk assets, funneling capital into mid- and low‑caps rather than only majors
– Regulatory clarity that explicitly greenlights a broader spectrum of tokens, opening the door for more diversified institutional allocations
– A technological or narrative breakthrough that reignites broad-based speculative mania, similar in scale to the initial DeFi or NFT booms
Absent such shifts, the base case remains that the majority of altcoins will stay far below their prior peaks, even if the overall crypto market eventually moves to new highs led by its largest assets.
The road ahead: compression before expansion
According to the analyst, unless current key support levels are decisively broken, the most likely scenario is continued downside bias and range trading within a broader expansion phase. In plain terms, the market may feel bearish on shorter timeframes while still setting the stage for a renewed uptrend in the medium term.
In this environment, patience and selectivity become crucial. For Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and a small group of established assets, an earlier‑than‑expected recovery is plausible once the consolidation phase plays out. For the vast majority of altcoins, however, the outlook is considerably darker. Structural capital flows, liquidity fragmentation, and shortened narrative cycles may keep them permanently below their former highs – relics of an era when simple cycle models and easy speculation still ruled the market.