Pi Network price slides into oversold zone as major unlock looms and Kraken listing rumors grow stronger
Pi Network’s native token is trapped in a deep bearish cycle, with price action hovering just above record lows while the market braces for a sizeable token unlock and speculates about a potential listing on Kraken.
On Sunday, Pi Coin (PI) was changing hands around $0.1450, only slightly above its historical bottom near $0.1305. From its peak, the token has lost over 90% of its value, wiping out billions in paper capitalization and placing it among the worst performers in the current market cycle.
Massive token unlock threatens fresh selling pressure
The immediate risk for Pi holders is a large wave of new supply hitting the market. Over the next seven days, more than 82 million PI tokens are scheduled to be unlocked. At current prices, this batch alone is worth in excess of $11 million. These tokens are part of a broader release that will see roughly 206 million coins come into circulation over the course of the month.
Unlock events are typically viewed as bearish for any cryptocurrency. By increasing the freely tradable supply without a matching rise in demand, they tend to tilt the balance in favor of sellers. Traders already positioned in the market are keenly aware of this dynamic and often try to front‑run the unlock by exiting early, which amplifies downside pressure.
A portion of the newly unlocked PI is expected to find its way onto centralized exchanges, where liquidity is deeper and market participants can offload positions more easily. If selling volumes spike while buyer interest remains subdued, Pi’s price could retest or even break below its current all‑time low.
Validator rewards to expand supply further in March
The supply story does not end with this week’s unlock. The Pi Network team has confirmed that validator rewards are scheduled to go live in March. According to the project’s latest update, the design of the rewards mechanism has been finalized, is undergoing testing, and should be implemented in the coming weeks.
Rewarding validators is essential for network security and decentralization, but it also introduces a new and recurring source of supply. While long‑term believers and infrastructure operators may choose to accumulate or stake their rewards, a meaningful share is likely to be sold, either to cover operational costs or to lock in profits.
This gradual but persistent selling could keep a lid on any sharp rallies and contribute to a slow grind lower if demand fails to materially increase. For traders, this creates a backdrop where rallies may be short‑lived and often used as opportunities to exit, at least until a stronger fundamental or speculative catalyst emerges.
Kraken roadmap listing: a potential bullish catalyst
Balancing the negative impact of unlocks and rewards distribution is a potential positive shock: Pi Network has appeared on Kraken’s roadmap of tokens under consideration. Historically, inclusion on such a roadmap is often one of the final steps before a full listing on the exchange.
A confirmed listing on Kraken would be a major milestone for Pi. Kraken is one of the largest and most established U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges, second only to Coinbase by many metrics. Access to its user base, liquidity pools, and institutional clientele could significantly increase trading activity and visibility for PI.
Listings on top‑tier exchanges frequently trigger short‑term price spikes as new capital flows in and speculative traders attempt to front‑run the listing event. If Kraken moves ahead with a full listing, it could temporarily outweigh the selling pressure from unlocks, at least around the listing date. However, the sustainability of any rally would still depend on user adoption, ecosystem development, and broader market conditions.
Technical picture: Pi Coin deeply oversold, but trend remains bearish
From a technical analysis standpoint, Pi Network’s chart remains firmly in bearish territory. On the daily timeframe, the token has not only extended its multi‑month downtrend but also decisively broken below the critical support zone around $0.1520, which previously acted as the all‑time low.
The price is trading well under both the 50‑day and 100‑day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), underscoring the persistent dominance of sellers. As long as PI remains below these moving averages, trend‑following traders will treat the asset as being in a bearish phase.
Pi is also trading beneath the Supertrend indicator, another widely used trend‑following tool. When price sits below the Supertrend line, it signals that the prevailing momentum is downward and that any rebounds should be treated cautiously unless the indicator flips to bullish.
Oversold conditions hint at a potential short‑term bounce
Despite the gloomy backdrop, there are early signs that the selloff may be overextended in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has slipped below 30, placing Pi firmly in oversold territory.
Such readings often precede temporary relief rallies as short sellers take profits and bargain hunters attempt to buy perceived discounts. However, oversold does not necessarily mean “bottomed.” Assets can remain oversold for extended periods during strong downtrends.
For PI, the key technical level to watch on the upside is the former support at $0.1520. A decisive move back above this zone, ideally with rising volume, would signal that bears are losing some control and might invalidate the most aggressive bearish scenarios in the very short term. Even then, further confirmation—such as reclaiming the 50‑day EMA—would be needed before speaking of a sustained trend reversal.
Short‑term outlook: consolidation likely, volatility around unlock and listing news
In the immediate future, Pi Coin is likely to trade within a relatively tight range as the market digests the upcoming unlock. Many traders expect choppy price action: brief rallies as shorts cover, followed by renewed selling as more tokens hit the market.
If Kraken officially confirms a listing date during or shortly after the unlock period, volatility could spike sharply in both directions. A “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern is common in such scenarios: PI might rally into the listing on speculation and then experience profit‑taking once trading goes live, especially if unlock‑driven sellers are still active.
For now, the base case is that Pi remains pressured, oscillating around current levels, with the downside risk of retesting the all‑time low and the upside capped near the breached $0.1520 area unless a strong external catalyst emerges.
Medium‑term risks: supply overhang and investor fatigue
Looking beyond the next few days, Pi Network faces a structural challenge: a large and growing supply pool in the hands of early participants and validators who may choose to monetize their holdings. Repeated unlocks and ongoing reward distributions create an overhang that can suppress price for months if not matched by a comparable wave of new demand.
Investor fatigue is another factor. After a 90% drawdown from the highs, many holders are deeply underwater. Some may be waiting for any meaningful rally to exit, which can turn every bounce into a liquidity event for trapped investors rather than the start of a new uptrend.
To break this cycle, Pi Network would need more than just exchange listings. It would require stronger real‑world usage, compelling applications within its ecosystem, and clear communication of its long‑term roadmap to rekindle confidence.
What traders and investors should watch now
Market participants tracking PI should pay close attention to a handful of key variables:
– Unlock schedule and on‑chain flows: How many of the newly unlocked coins actively move to exchanges versus remaining in wallets. Heavy exchange inflows would reinforce a bearish outlook.
– Official announcements from Kraken: Confirmation of a listing, trading pairs, and timing could trigger swift repricing.
– Technical levels: Support near the current low, resistance around $0.1520, and the positions of the 50‑day and 100‑day EMAs will shape short‑term trading strategies.
– Liquidity and volume: Rising trading volumes on major exchanges, especially around news events, may signal shifting sentiment, while thin liquidity raises the risk of sudden, sharp moves.
Short‑term traders might attempt to exploit oversold conditions and event‑driven volatility. Longer‑term participants, however, need to weigh the project’s fundamentals and the implications of a rapidly expanding circulating supply.
Scenario analysis: possible paths for Pi Network price
Several broad scenarios stand out:
1. Bearish continuation: Unlocks and validator rewards fuel sustained selling, Kraken delays or declines a listing, and Pi breaks decisively below its all‑time low, exploring new downside levels.
2. Range‑bound stabilization: Price holds above the current low, oscillates between support and $0.1520–$0.18 as the market gradually absorbs new supply and waits for clearer signals on adoption and listings.
3. Speculative rebound: Kraken confirms a listing, sentiment flips short‑term bullish, and Pi stages a sharp but potentially brief rally, with gains limited unless accompanied by strong fundamental progress.
Which path plays out will depend on how quickly Pi Network can convert its large community and validator base into sustainable demand for the token, rather than treating it primarily as an asset to be unlocked and sold.
Bottom line
Pi Network is entering a critical phase: a major unlock and forthcoming validator rewards are set to inflate circulating supply at a time when the token is already near record lows and technically oversold. Against this, the prospect of a high‑profile Kraken listing stands out as the main potential bullish catalyst.
For now, the trend remains decisively bearish, with oversold conditions suggesting the possibility of short‑term bounces rather than a confirmed reversal. A move back above $0.1520 would be the first sign that sellers are losing their grip; failing that, the risk of new lows will remain firmly on the table.