XRP whales ramp up accumulation to 7-year peak, but price structure stays shaky
XRP’s largest holders are quietly tightening their grip on the token, even as its price action continues to flash warning signals. On-chain metrics show that whale demand has climbed to levels not seen in seven years, yet the broader market structure still leans bearish and leaves XRP vulnerable to another leg down.
After the sharp market-wide correction on 1 December, XRP dropped below the psychological $2 threshold, printing a local low near $1.90 before staging a modest bounce. At the time of writing, Ripple’s native asset was changing hands around $2.02, down roughly 1.28% on the daily chart and about 8.42% over the week.
Despite this pullback, the selloff appears to have been treated as a discount opportunity by deep-pocketed players. The prolonged weakness has effectively opened an accumulation window that whales have been keen to exploit.
Whales stay active despite price bleed
Data from derivatives and spot market analytics platforms reveals that large players have not stepped back from XRP. For 30 consecutive days, the Spot Average Order Size metric has printed unusually high readings, indicating consistent participation from big-ticket traders.
When this indicator spikes, it typically reflects an uptick in whale-sized orders, whether those are large buys or heavy sells. In XRP’s case, another key metric helps clarify the direction of this flow.
The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has remained in the green for three straight weeks. A positive CVD suggests that buy market orders are outpacing sell orders, pointing to buyer dominance among aggressive participants. Put simply, the whales aren’t just active—they’re buying.
100M+ wallets shrink, but their XRP stash explodes
Beneath the surface, XRP’s ownership landscape among the biggest holders has undergone a dramatic shift. According to on-chain wallet data, the number of addresses holding more than 100 million XRP has fallen by 20.6% over the last eight weeks.
At first glance, a shrinking count of mega-whale wallets might look like an exodus. However, the aggregate balance held by this group tells a different story. The total holdings of these 100M+ wallets have surged to around 48 billion XRP—marking the highest level in seven years.
This divergence—fewer large wallets, but a deeper concentration of tokens—suggests that some large addresses may have consolidated holdings or that ultra-large players have been absorbing supply from slightly smaller whales. In any case, ownership is becoming more concentrated at the very top.
Whales avoid exchanges, signaling accumulation over distribution
One of the clearest clues about whale intent comes from their behavior toward centralized exchanges. On Binance, Whale-to-Exchange Flow has stayed subdued, hovering around 1,000 daily transfers for an entire month.
Low inbound whale transfers usually imply that large holders are not rushing to send their coins to exchanges, where they would be better positioned to sell. Instead, the pattern suggests that whales are either keeping assets in cold storage or withdrawing from exchanges—both of which align with an accumulation or holding phase rather than imminent distribution.
The combination of rising whale balances, reduced number of mega wallets, and muted exchange inflows paints a picture of powerful hands quietly stocking up on XRP during market weakness.
Technical picture: bears still call the shots
While fundamentals and on-chain data hint at long-term confidence among big players, shorter-term technical indicators remain firmly under bearish influence.
The Relative Vigor Index (RVI) Zero Cross has recently flashed a bearish crossover, slipping to around -0.02. The RVI attempts to gauge the strength of a trend by comparing a closing price to its trading range; a negative crossover typically indicates growing downside momentum. The current reading confirms that selling pressure is still outweighing buying strength on the price chart.
With bears retaining control, whale demand alone has not yet translated into a decisive trend reversal. The underlying structure remains fragile, and rallies risk turning into bull traps if volume and market participation from smaller traders fail to follow through.
Key support and resistance: where XRP could move next
Given the ongoing bearish tilt, XRP’s immediate concern is the $2 support area. If negative sentiment persists and sellers continue to press their advantage, XRP could once again slip below this psychological level.
The Parabolic SAR indicator currently offers potential support near the $1.90 mark, roughly aligning with the recent local low. A clean break below that region on strong volume would reinforce the bearish case and could open the door to deeper retracements, especially if macro conditions for risk assets deteriorate.
On the upside, sustained whale accumulation could eventually provide enough fuel for a rebound. If buying pressure spills over from large holders to the broader market, XRP might be able to reclaim the $2.20 region, which now acts as a key resistance. A successful breakout above $2.20 could set the stage for a move toward $2.50, but that would likely require improved sentiment across the crypto market and a clear shift in momentum indicators.
Why strong whale demand hasn’t lifted price—yet
The apparent contradiction—record whale demand alongside a weak price—can be explained by several interacting factors:
1. Broader market headwinds
XRP does not trade in isolation. If Bitcoin and major altcoins are in a corrective or risk-off phase, even strong accumulation by whales can be overwhelmed by macro selling pressure, profit-taking, or decreased speculative interest.
2. Supply overhang and past resistance zones
The $2 area has historically attracted heavy trading activity. Many traders who bought higher may be using every bounce to exit at breakeven or a small loss, creating a constant supply of sell orders that dampens upward momentum.
3. Consolidation by large holders
When whales accumulate, they often do so patiently, over extended periods. During this time, they may deliberately avoid driving the price sharply higher to maintain favorable entry levels. The result: strong underlying demand, but muted price impact in the short term.
4. Retail and smaller traders staying cautious
Without renewed enthusiasm from smaller participants—who typically drive parabolic rallies—price action can remain sluggish even if on-chain fundamentals improve. Whale activity alone is not always enough to kick-start a trend.
What this means for long-term XRP holders
For long-term XRP believers, heightened whale accumulation at multi-year highs can be interpreted as a sign of institutional or large private confidence in the asset’s future prospects. Concentration among strong hands often precedes periods of reduced volatility followed by large directional moves when conditions finally change.
However, increased concentration also has risks: when a smaller group of entities controls a large portion of the supply, their decisions—whether to hold, distribute, or rotate into other assets—can significantly impact market dynamics. Long-term holders should be aware that such a structure can amplify both upside and downside scenarios.
Risks for short-term traders
Short-term traders face a more precarious environment. The clash between supportive on-chain metrics and bearish technical signals can create choppy, range-bound price action filled with fake breakouts.
In this context:
– Buying aggressively near resistance levels like $2.20 without confirmation from momentum indicators can expose traders to sharp reversals.
– Selling into panic near $1.90–$2 support may be risky if whales continue to absorb supply and trigger short squeezes on any positive catalyst.
– Leveraged positions become especially dangerous in this kind of mixed environment, as sudden volatility spikes can quickly liquidate both long and short positions.
Patience and tighter risk management rules tend to be more effective than chasing short-lived moves under such conditions.
What could flip the script for XRP?
Several developments could help resolve the current tension between on-chain accumulation and weak price performance:
– Improving macro sentiment in crypto and broader risk assets, encouraging capital to flow back into altcoins.
– A clear bullish crossover on momentum indicators such as the RVI or MACD, confirming that buyers are finally overpowering bears on the chart.
– An increase in spot trading volume alongside rising prices, especially from smaller and mid-sized traders, signaling that demand is becoming more widespread.
– Stabilization above key levels like $2.20 for an extended period, turning former resistance into reliable support.
Until these conditions emerge, XRP is likely to remain in a vulnerable position, with each move needing careful confirmation before being treated as the start of a new trend.
How to interpret the current setup without taking it as advice
The present configuration of XRP’s market can be summarized as follows: whales are accumulating aggressively, their holdings are at a seven-year peak, exchange inflows are low, but the chart structure remains bearish and sensitive to further declines.
Anyone following XRP should separate data from decisions. On-chain and technical signals are tools, not guarantees. The same metrics that now highlight accumulation and fragility could shift rapidly if market sentiment changes, new regulatory developments appear, or macroeconomic conditions evolve.
Trading, buying, or selling cryptocurrencies involves a high degree of risk, including the possibility of losing all capital. Each participant should conduct their own analysis, consider their risk tolerance, and avoid basing financial choices solely on a single indicator, narrative, or market update.