Monero [XMR] faces its first major test since November breakout: What comes next?
Monero’s price action has been far more resilient than that of many altcoins during the latest market pullback. While most large caps gave back a significant portion of their recent gains, XMR has managed to hold up comparatively well. The key question now: is this relative strength a signal for a new leg up, or just a pause before deeper correction?
Below is a detailed look at the technical landscape, key levels, and the risk–reward setup facing Monero in the short to medium term.
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Monero’s recent performance: resilience with limitations
On Sunday, 30 November, XMR pushed into the crucial resistance area around 440 dollars, retesting a level that previously capped upside. The subsequent market-wide decline, triggered in large part by Bitcoin sliding back under the 90,000‑dollar mark, quickly translated into selling pressure on Monero as well.
From that local peak, XMR has retraced about 10.6%. Even so, it remains one of the few larger-cap crypto assets that recently attempted to break toward fresh highs instead of simply following Bitcoin lower.
Since the start of November, Monero is still up roughly 15.8%. In sharp contrast, two of the other major privacy-focused coins, ZCash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH), have dropped around 22.52% and 15.23% respectively over the same period. That divergence underscores XMR’s short-term relative strength within the privacy niche.
However, zooming out reveals a less impressive picture. From the beginning of September, ZCash has exploded higher, gaining around 760%, while Monero’s advance over that longer period stands at a more modest 50.3%. This shows that despite its stability and reputation, XMR has not been the leader of the privacy narrative rally.
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Trend still favors the bulls – for now
On the higher timeframes, the broader trend remains in bullish hands.
Weekly timeframe: breakout confirmed
The weekly chart shows that Monero decisively pushed above the previous key high around 420 dollars. Breaking this level established a continuation of the uptrend, confirming that the broader market structure remains constructive.
Above current prices, the next major upside target sits near 518 dollars – the peak set in April 2021. This historic high is now the primary medium-term objective for bulls if they can defend current supports and absorb near-term selling pressure.
Daily timeframe: bullish structure but facing resistance
The daily chart also reflects a bullish swing structure, but one currently under pressure. A visible price imbalance (often referred to as a fair value gap) in the 360‑dollar area stands out as a logical magnet for price in the coming days.
The rejection around 438–440 dollars, which aligns closely with the mid‑November local high near 438 dollars, marked a clear setback for buyers. That zone has now confirmed itself as a heavy supply area and a reference point for future short squeezes or breakouts.
Even with this setback, the broader pattern still leans bullish: higher highs and higher lows remain intact, so long as critical supports do not give way.
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What do the indicators say?
Technical indicators across timeframes paint a nuanced picture, with the higher timeframe readings still optimistic while intraday signals show hesitation.
CMF (Chaikin Money Flow): strong on weekly, mixed on daily
On the weekly chart, the CMF points to substantial capital inflows into XMR. This suggests that, over the broader timeframe, buyers are still dominating and accumulation remains underway.
On the daily chart, however, the CMF looks more uncertain and less directional. This divergence typically indicates that while long-term participants are still adding exposure, short-term traders are more cautious, leading to choppy price action and potential shakeouts.
MACD: momentum stronger on higher timeframe
The MACD supports a similar conclusion. On the weekly timeframe, it highlights solid bullish momentum, reinforcing the case for an ongoing uptrend and possible continuation toward the former all-time highs.
On the daily chart, the MACD appears softer and less decisive. The loss of momentum here aligns with the recent rejection at resistance and opens the door to a corrective phase before any renewed push higher.
In combination, these signals suggest that while the overarching trend remains bullish, the market may first need to reset leveraged positions and test support before buyers attempt another breakout.
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Liquidation map: where the pain points lie
Data on liquidation levels provides an additional layer of insight into where the market might be drawn in the near term.
The liquidation map shows that long positions down to roughly 355 dollars carry higher cumulative leverage liquidation potential than the shorts up to around 435 dollars. That imbalance indicates that a continued short-term drop toward the 355–360‑dollar zone is statistically more likely, as it would trigger a significant number of overleveraged long liquidations.
On the upside, there is a dense cluster of high-leverage short positions between roughly 440 and 450 dollars. If price manages to reclaim support and turn higher, a move into this region could induce a short squeeze, potentially accelerating any breakout attempt above the current resistance band.
In short, the market appears structurally incentivized to probe the 350–360‑dollar downside area first, before making a serious run at the 440–450‑dollar liquidity pocket above.
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Key support zones to watch
Two swing lows stand out as critical lines in the sand for bulls:
– Around 233 dollars
– Around 320 dollars
These levels represent major higher lows in the existing uptrend. A sustained hold above them would confirm that the bullish market structure remains intact, even if short-term volatility increases.
The daily chart imbalance near 360 dollars, combined with the liquidation map’s cluster of long liquidations at 355 dollars, strengthens the case for a dip into the 350–360‑dollar band. From a structural perspective, that zone aligns as a logical area for price to seek equilibrium, flush out weak hands, and potentially attract new buyers.
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Bullish scenario: constructive pullback, then continuation
Under a positive scenario for Monero, the following path becomes plausible:
1. Controlled pullback:
Price drifts lower into the 350–360‑dollar zone, filling the daily imbalance and triggering liquidations of overleveraged long positions.
2. Demand emerges at support:
Buyers step in around 355–360 dollars, forming a higher low above the 320‑dollar swing low. Volume begins to pick up as new participants view the dip as an attractive re‑entry point.
3. Reclaim of mid‑range levels:
XMR regains lost ground, pushing back above the 380–400‑dollar zone and turning it into a short-term support.
4. Retest of major resistance:
Price returns to challenge the 438–440‑dollar resistance band. A strong breakout here, especially if accompanied by rising volume and improving daily indicators (MACD and CMF turning more decisively positive), could drive a move toward the cluster of short liquidations at 440–450 dollars.
5. Run toward 518 dollars:
Clearing the 450‑dollar region would open the path to the next higher timeframe target around 518 dollars, the April 2021 peak. This level would likely act as a significant profit‑taking zone and major test of the entire bullish thesis.
For this scenario to remain viable, Monero needs to defend at least the 320‑dollar swing low. A break below that level would undermine the bullish structure and force a reassessment.
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Bearish scenario: support failure and deeper retrace
The negative case centers around the possibility that the recent rejection at resistance marks more than just a healthy pause.
A more bearish development could unfold as follows:
1. Sharp breakdown through 350–360 dollars:
Instead of a gentle test and rebound, XMR slices through the 350–360‑dollar zone with strong selling pressure and rising volume, signaling aggressive distribution rather than opportunistic buying.
2. Loss of 320‑dollar support:
A weekly close below the 320‑dollar swing low would break the sequence of higher lows and shift the structure from bullish to neutral or outright bearish.
3. Downward extension:
Once 320 dollars is lost, the market could start targeting deeper supports, with the 233‑dollar area becoming a realistic next stop. This level is critical; a failure here would risk unraveling much of the prior uptrend.
4. Momentum flip on higher timeframes:
If weekly MACD turns sharply bearish and CMF rolls over into sustained negative territory, it would signal that the long-term accumulation phase has ended or at least paused, inviting a more prolonged corrective environment.
Under this scenario, rallies back toward 360–400 dollars would be more likely to act as selling opportunities than as stepping stones for a renewed rally.
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Why Monero’s relative strength still matters
Even though Monero has lagged ZCash in absolute performance since September, its recent behavior during the market downturn remains noteworthy. While many altcoins saw deep double-digit drawdowns, XMR’s correction has been more orderly and comparatively shallow.
This relative stability can be interpreted in several ways:
– Stronger holder base: XMR’s community and investors historically display a longer time horizon, which can dampen panic selling during corrections.
– Mature market structure: As one of the oldest and best-known privacy coins, Monero often behaves less like a speculative micro‑cap and more like a mid‑cap with established liquidity and more disciplined participants.
– Narrative durability: The persistent demand for financial privacy and censorship-resistant transactions continues to underpin long-term interest in XMR, even when the broader altcoin market turns risk‑off.
These factors do not guarantee future gains but help explain why Monero did not suffer the same level of drawdown as many peers in the latest pullback.
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Short-term traders vs. long-term participants
The current setup highlights a classic tension between short-term traders and long-term holders:
– Short-term traders are focused on the 350–360‑dollar region as a likely liquidity pool and potential bounce zone, while closely monitoring how price reacts around 438–450 dollars on any rebound.
– Long-term market participants are more concerned with the integrity of the 320‑ and 233‑dollar supports. As long as these levels hold on the weekly chart, the broader bullish structure remains technically valid.
This split explains why lower timeframes appear choppy and indecisive, even as the high‑timeframe trend still leans bullish.
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Risk management considerations
Given the current landscape, several risk factors and considerations stand out:
– Volatility around key levels: Price is likely to become more erratic near 355–360 dollars and again near 440–450 dollars, where liquidation clusters reside. Whipsaws and fake breakouts are common in such zones.
– Dependence on Bitcoin: Monero’s path remains partially tied to Bitcoin’s behavior. A deeper BTC correction could invalidate otherwise promising setups on XMR, regardless of its relative strength.
– Leverage imbalances: As the liquidation data suggests, overly aggressive use of leverage can amplify both downside flushes and upside squeezes, leading to exaggerated moves in short periods.
For any participant, aligning position size and time horizon with these dynamics is crucial in such an environment.
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Outlook: cautious optimism with clear invalidation levels
Putting all elements together, Monero remains in a structurally bullish uptrend on higher timeframes, but it is entering a crucial testing phase:
– A controlled dip into the 350–360‑dollar range followed by a firm rebound would keep the bullish thesis intact and set the stage for another attempt at the 440–450‑dollar resistance band.
– A break of 320 dollars on a weekly closing basis would seriously challenge the uptrend and raise the probability of a deeper correction toward 233 dollars or lower.
For now, the technical picture favors cautious optimism: buying pressure remains visible on the larger timeframes, and the upcoming retracement zone could present an attractive opportunity for bulls if defended convincingly.
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Final thoughts
Monero has so far navigated the recent market turmoil better than many altcoins, preserving much of its November gains and avoiding a steep collapse. The coming days and weeks, however, will provide the first real test of that resilience since its breakout above 420 dollars.
A trip into the 350–360‑dollar zone appears likely and could act as a pivotal battleground between buyers and sellers. How price behaves there, and whether XMR can subsequently reclaim the 400‑plus region and challenge 440–450 dollars again, will largely determine whether the path to 518 dollars remains open or whether a more extended correction takes hold.
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Disclaimer:
The information presented above reflects the author’s analysis and opinion and should not be considered financial, investment, trading, or any other form of professional advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Each reader should conduct independent research and, if necessary, consult a qualified professional before making any investment or trading decisions.