Ethereum dominance and its Bitcoin trading pair are flashing signs that a decisive move could be approaching as the network gears up for the December 3 Fusaka upgrade. After a sharp fourth-quarter correction, Ether is once again pressing against a key resistance area, with multiple analysts treating the upcoming hard fork as a potential trigger for renewed upside and an expansion of Ethereum’s share of the crypto market.
In late November, Ethereum attempted to claw back losses from the recent market-wide pullback. On November 26, trading data showed a notable daily bounce that carried ETH back to a crucial resistance level for the first time in nearly a week. Despite that push, the asset has largely remained confined to a narrow range, mirroring the broader consolidation seen across the market and the pressure on Bitcoin’s support zones.
Earlier in the week, Ether briefly pushed above its most recent trading cluster and spent roughly two days probing the next overhead barrier. That move ultimately failed, with sellers stepping in and forcing price back below resistance. For now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bulls attempting to defend reclaimed supports and bears guarding the upper range.
Market analyst Ted Pillows commented that Ethereum has entered a firm resistance zone and has already been rejected from it once. In his view, as long as ETH does not convincingly reclaim that level, the risk of setting a new local low remains higher than many traders might expect. Only a decisive breakout above resistance, supported by strong trading volume, would open the door to a push toward the next major supply area.
Pillows highlighted the $3,000 mark as a critical support that ETH has recently regained. As long as the price holds above this band, he believes Ethereum has room to advance toward the $3,400 region. A clean loss of the $3,000 floor, however, would raise the likelihood of a deeper retracement into the $2,800 zone or lower, signaling that the correction has further to run.
Despite the short-term uncertainty, Pillows expects that Ethereum could stage a recovery rally as early as next week, with the Fusaka upgrade acting as a potential catalyst. He drew a parallel to the market’s response to the Pectra upgrade in May, when Ethereum saw a notable appreciation in the days that followed. Pectra’s enhancements—aimed at boosting transaction throughput, improving efficiency, and alleviating network strain—helped restore bullish momentum and eventually contributed to a powerful third-quarter rally that pushed ETH to a new all-time high.
Fusaka, scheduled for December 3, is described by core developers as the most consequential network upgrade since The Merge. One of its main goals is to tackle the long-standing problem of data availability for rollups, a key scalability layer that has become central to Ethereum’s roadmap. By improving how rollups access and store data, Fusaka is expected to reduce one of the ecosystem’s biggest bottlenecks, potentially lowering costs and improving user experience across layer-2 networks.
Analysts argue that if the market reacts to Fusaka in a manner similar to Pectra, Ethereum could not only pierce current resistance but also sustain higher prices into the following weeks. This scenario would likely be accompanied by a rise in Ethereum’s dominance, as capital rotates from other altcoins and, potentially, from Bitcoin into ETH and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
Another market observer, Merlijn The Trader, has pointed to Ethereum’s repeating wave structures as a reason to remain constructive. According to his analysis, ETH has followed a similar three-wave pattern multiple times since the bear market bottom in mid-2022. In his framework, Wave 1 initiates a fresh cycle, Wave 2 shakes out weaker hands via corrections, and Wave 3 often develops into a steep, almost parabolic rally. He suggests that Ethereum may be nearing the end of its current corrective Wave 2 and could begin a new impulsive move in the coming weeks.
Merlijn notes that this pattern has appeared three times previously since mid-2022, and each time it coincided with a phase where Ethereum’s price action turned sharply upward. With the same structure now emerging again, he argues that the probability of another vertical leg is increasing, especially if macro conditions and network fundamentals remain supportive.
On the fundamental side, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently signaled a strategic shift from “broad scaling” to more targeted optimization starting next year. The proposed changes include an increase in the gas limit—potentially up to five times higher—paired with a proportional rise in gas costs for particularly heavy on-chain operations. The intent is to prioritize throughput for everyday users while discouraging inefficient or resource-intensive contract behavior that clogs the network.
If implemented effectively, these optimizations could complement the Fusaka and other scaling efforts, making the network more accommodating for high-volume applications such as decentralized exchanges, gaming, social protocols, and on-chain finance tools. For investors, this technical roadmap reinforces the narrative that Ethereum is still evolving aggressively and may not yet have fully priced in its longer-term utility and capacity.
Michaël van de Poppe has directed attention to Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin, arguing that the ETH/BTC pair is approaching a pivotal moment. According to his analysis, ETH is currently retesting a multi-month descending trendline resistance on the ETH/BTC chart. A successful breakout above this line in the weeks ahead could mark the start of a period where Ethereum significantly outperforms Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe maintains that the broader market cycle is not yet complete and that Ethereum still has room to gain both in absolute price and relative to BTC. Historically, strong Ethereum rallies have often been accompanied by a rising ETH/BTC pair, signaling heightened risk appetite and altcoin rotation. If this pattern repeats, a breakout could herald a renewed “Ethereum season” with spillover effects across the wider altcoin market.
Analyst Rekt Capital has drawn attention to Ethereum’s dominance chart—the share of the total crypto market capitalization attributed to ETH. According to his assessment, Ethereum dominance is hovering within a zone that previously acted as a consolidation base ahead of the major rally in 2021. If ETH can maintain or build on this area, it could be laying the groundwork for a gradual but sustained increase in market share over time.
Maintaining high dominance is not only a matter of price appreciation; it also reflects investor confidence in Ethereum’s long-term role as a foundational layer for decentralized applications, DeFi, NFTs, and emerging use cases like on-chain AI coordination. A successful Fusaka rollout, together with ongoing rollup expansion, could further entrench Ethereum’s position as a default platform for developers and liquidity.
From a technical perspective, traders are watching several key levels. On the upside, the immediate focus is on whether ETH can flip the current resistance band into support and then extend toward $3,400 and beyond. On the downside, bulls need to defend the $3,000 region to avoid a slide back into the mid-$2,000s. Volume spikes during any test of these levels will be critical clues: strong buying interest on a breakout would confirm the bullish thesis, while weak participation could turn any move into a false signal.
Fundamentally driven traders are also assessing the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic around Fusaka. Historically, major network upgrades can produce front-loaded rallies as anticipation builds, followed by volatility or profit-taking around the actual event. Investors positioning around December 3 are weighing whether to enter ahead of the upgrade, wait for confirmation after the fork, or scale in gradually to reduce timing risk.
Another layer to consider is the interaction between Ethereum’s roadmap and the broader macro and regulatory backdrop. If global risk sentiment remains stable and liquidity conditions supportive, technical and fundamental tailwinds from Fusaka and future optimizations could be amplified. Conversely, adverse macro shocks or regulatory headlines could mute or delay the impact of otherwise bullish developments on-chain.
For long-term holders, the combination of repeated bullish wave structures, a major forthcoming upgrade, improving rollup infrastructure, and potential optimization of gas economics forms a cohesive narrative: Ethereum is still early in its maturation as a high-throughput, general-purpose base layer. For short-term traders, however, the message from analysts is more cautious—until resistance is convincingly broken and ETH/BTC confirms a breakout, the possibility of renewed downside cannot be ruled out.
As December approaches, the market’s focus will increasingly converge on a handful of overlapping factors: the outcome of the Fusaka upgrade, Ethereum’s ability to hold critical support, the behavior of the ETH/BTC pair at its descending trendline, and whether dominance can remain anchored in its historical consolidation zone. Together, these signals will help determine whether Ethereum is about to launch into a new phase of outperformance, or whether the current correction still has more work to do before a sustained uptrend can resume.