Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens as Short-Term Holders Dump 65,000 BTC at a Loss
The ongoing Bitcoin correction has entered a critical phase, with mounting signs of capitulation among short-term holders (STHs). Recent data reveals that over 65,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss, reflecting significant investor distress and signaling that the market may be nearing the exhaustion point of the current downtrend.
According to on-chain metrics, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) — a key indicator of realized profits and losses — has dropped below 1, currently sitting at 0.993. This means that on average, coins moved by short-term holders are being sold at a 7% loss. Historically, SOPR values below 1 have been associated with market capitulation stages, where weak hands exit positions under pressure and long-term participants quietly accumulate.
Investor sentiment remains fragile as Bitcoin struggles to hold the $95,000 support level, having recently fallen below the psychological $100,000 threshold. The recent bounce appears tentative, with the price hovering within a consolidation zone between $93,000 and $95,000 — a range that previously acted as support during periods of sideways action earlier this year.
Analysts highlight that short-term holders, who typically entered the market within the past few months, are now deeply underwater. Their average cost basis hovers around $110,500, putting significant stress on this reactive group of investors. As losses deepen, many have begun to capitulate, offloading their assets at a loss in an attempt to cut further downside exposure.
The sell-off reached a critical point on November 15, when more than 65,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a realized loss, translating into roughly $6 billion in selling pressure. A week earlier, on November 9, realized losses peaked at $812 million in a single day, underscoring the scale of panic-driven exits. These events are classic symptoms of a market bottoming process, where selling reaches unsustainable levels before a reversal occurs.
Despite the mounting losses, historical trends suggest that such capitulation often precedes recoveries. During previous corrections, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rebound once STHs have exhausted their selling capacity. In March, for example, similar conditions persisted for nearly two months before a strong recovery followed.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains under pressure, having broken below both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. These breakouts typically reflect a bearish short-term trend. However, the confluence of recent price action around the $93,000–$95,000 area — combined with declining sell volume — indicates that selling momentum may be waning.
Should this support zone fail, the next significant level lies near $90,000, aligning with the 200-day moving average — a key long-term trend indicator. Holding this level would be crucial to maintaining a broader bullish structure. Conversely, reclaiming the $100,000–$105,000 area could restore confidence and bring back upward momentum toward the $110,000 range.
Importantly, the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) remains relatively stable throughout this turbulence. Unlike STHs, LTHs are less reactive to short-term volatility, helping to provide a foundation of support during corrections. Their continued commitment suggests that the broader bullish thesis for Bitcoin remains intact, even amid short-term uncertainty.
In addition to technical and on-chain indicators, macroeconomic factors continue to influence market sentiment. Concerns about U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and shifting regulatory landscapes are contributing to the overall risk-off mood in financial markets. These external variables may delay a full recovery but also make crypto assets like Bitcoin attractive as alternative stores of value in the long run.
Another key development worth watching is institutional behavior. Despite the recent drawdown, some large investors and funds are reportedly using this correction as a buying opportunity. Whale accumulation at these levels could signal growing confidence in a longer-term rebound, especially as retail capitulation reaches its peak.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets remains a factor. If equities begin to stabilize or rally, it could provide a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin to recover as well. Conversely, continued weakness in global markets may drag crypto prices lower in the short term.
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate, the coming days will be critical in determining the market’s next move. A strong defense of the $95,000 level followed by a break back above $100,000 could mark the beginning of a new upward trend. However, failure to hold current support could open the door for deeper correction toward $90,000 or below.
For now, all eyes are on short-term holders — will they continue to capitulate, or has the worst of the selling already passed? If history is any guide, the current wave of realized losses may set the stage for a renewed rally, especially if long-term conviction continues to grow behind the scenes.