Despite a surge in whale transactions and increased interest from short-term holders (STHs), XRP’s price continues to show little sign of upward momentum. This stagnation persists even as on-chain data suggests heightened investor activity and capital rotation into the asset.
Recently, XRP experienced a significant spike in large-volume movements, recording 716 whale transactions exceeding $1 million in a single day — the highest count in the past four months. This level of activity typically suggests growing interest from institutional or high-net-worth investors. However, the price action has remained relatively flat, raising questions about the underlying market dynamics.
Analyzing wallet behavior, data reveals that short-term holders have been increasing their exposure. Metrics from HODL Waves indicate a noticeable uptick in wallet segments holding XRP for one week to one month and one to three months. This trend implies that new capital is flowing into XRP rather than long-term holders offloading their assets.
At the same time, the derivatives market has shown minimal response to the increase in spot-side activity. Aggregated open interest has hovered around $1.3 billion, and funding rates have remained slightly positive at approximately 0.0057. This suggests a balanced market with neither a strong bullish nor bearish bias from leveraged traders.
Despite these developments, XRP continues to struggle technically. The token trades below all key exponential moving averages (EMAs) — the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day — signaling a lack of bullish conviction. Recent price action has been subdued, with candles forming around the $2.24 mark and failing to break above resistance. Trading volume has cooled significantly compared to earlier in the month, further highlighting the market’s hesitance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 41, placing XRP in a neutral-to-bearish zone. Without a decisive break above the critical EMA cluster between $2.36 and $2.50, XRP risks remaining in a consolidation phase or facing additional downside pressure.
One possible explanation for the divergence between on-chain activity and price performance lies in broader market sentiment. With regulatory uncertainties still looming around Ripple’s legal battles and a generally cautious market atmosphere, investors may be accumulating with a long-term view rather than anticipating immediate price gains.
Moreover, the absence of aggressive leveraged positions in derivatives suggests that current buyers are not speculative traders but rather spot investors positioning for future growth. This could also explain why price movements remain muted despite significant wallet activity.
Another factor to consider is liquidity. Thin order books and lower trading volumes can dampen price reactions even in the face of strong buying interest. If large players are accumulating gradually to avoid spiking the market, it could result in sideways price action despite bullish fundamentals.
It’s also worth noting that XRP’s historical volatility tends to produce sharp moves only after extended periods of accumulation. The current phase may represent such a buildup, especially given the increasing involvement of whales and STHs.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the entire crypto market remains sensitive to shifts in monetary policy, inflation data, and institutional adoption. XRP’s performance, like that of many altcoins, is often influenced by Bitcoin’s trajectory. Until BTC shows clear directional strength, XRP may remain in a holding pattern regardless of internal metrics.
Looking ahead, XRP needs to reclaim the $2.36–$2.50 resistance zone to reignite bullish momentum. A break above this level, accompanied by rising volume and a pick-up in derivatives interest, could signal a reversal. Until then, the token appears locked in a phase of cautious accumulation.
In summary, while on-chain signals are turning increasingly positive — with whales returning and short-term investors building positions — XRP’s price remains tethered by broader market hesitations and technical resistance. The groundwork for a potential breakout may be forming, but until key thresholds are breached, XRP is likely to continue trading in a narrow range.