Can Bitcoin Maintain Momentum Toward a $115K Rally? Analyzing On-Chain and Technical Signals
Bitcoin [BTC] has recently demonstrated renewed strength, bouncing back from a critical support zone around $101,225. This recovery, following a brief pullback, has helped stabilize the asset above the $103,000 mark. With prices currently hovering near $106K and an improving Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 46, market sentiment is gradually shifting towards optimism. The question now is whether this momentum can sustain itself—and possibly drive BTC toward the $115K resistance level.
Exchange Supply Ratio Signals Strategic Accumulation
One of the clearest signs of a potential bullish continuation is the rise in Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) on Binance, which climbed from 0.0272 to 0.0286—its highest point since September. This increase does not point to elevated selling pressure. Instead, it reflects growing internal liquidity, suggesting that major players are reallocating their holdings into derivatives or preparing for long-term accumulation.
Historically, such behavior from large investors, or “whales,” has preceded significant price moves. The fact that Bitcoin continues to trade above $103K, without signs of accelerated sell-offs, underscores the idea that the market is entering a phase of strategic positioning rather than panic distribution.
Technical Structure Shows Recovery and Growing Confidence
The recent bounce from $101,225 aligns with a retest of the descending trendline that previously acted as resistance. The strong reaction at this level appears to confirm renewed buyer interest, particularly at discounted price zones. Additionally, the formation of higher lows on the price chart suggests that bullish sentiment is gradually building.
If Bitcoin can maintain its current trajectory, the next major resistance level at $115K could be tested in the near term. A successful break above this mark would confirm a sustained bullish reversal and likely attract additional capital inflows.
MVRV Ratio Points to Profitability and Renewed Risk Appetite
Another key on-chain metric, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, jumped by 4.35% to reach 1.8945. This movement suggests that more Bitcoin holders are now in profit, signaling a shift away from undervalued accumulation zones. It also implies that short-term traders are re-entering the market, capitalizing on the recent dip to rebuild positions.
The rising MVRV ratio tends to coincide with early stages of market recovery and reflects growing confidence among investors. When large portfolios begin to add to their holdings, it typically indicates that market participants are anticipating further gains.
NVT Golden Cross Reflects Strengthening Network Fundamentals
Supporting the bullish case further, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross metric rose sharply by 44.89% to -0.3245. A decline in this ratio generally means that transaction activity is increasing relative to market valuation—often seen during the initial phases of a recovery cycle.
This uptick indicates that Bitcoin’s network utility is improving, with more users actively transacting and engaging with the blockchain. Rising transaction volumes without corresponding speculative spikes hint at organic demand, which is a healthier sign of market stability and long-term sustainability.
Liquidation Heatmap Highlights Key Resistance Around $108K
According to Binance’s liquidation heatmap, dense clusters of leveraged positions exist between $105K and $108K. This zone represents a significant barrier in the near term. If Bitcoin manages to break through the $108K level, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, potentially accelerating the next leg up toward $115K.
On the flip side, rejection at this level could result in short-lived pullbacks as traders lock in profits. However, strong liquidity below $105K suggests that any dips may be met with renewed buying interest, limiting downside risk.
Institutional Behavior and Accumulation Patterns
One of the more encouraging signs for long-term investors is the evidence of sustained accumulation at lower levels. On-chain analysis suggests that institutional entities are quietly increasing their exposure, taking advantage of the recent retracement to build positions. This type of behavior is often a precursor to extended price rallies, particularly when it coincides with improving technical indicators.
Macro Trends and External Drivers
While on-chain data paints a constructive picture, broader macroeconomic factors will also influence Bitcoin’s ability to rally to $115K. Global monetary policy, inflation expectations, and regulatory developments remain crucial variables. With central banks signaling continued caution and risk assets staging partial recoveries, Bitcoin could benefit as a hedge or speculative vehicle in the months ahead.
Market Sentiment and Derivatives Landscape
Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has also begun to rise, signaling renewed trader engagement. However, funding rates remain relatively neutral, indicating that the market is not yet overheated. This balance between bullish interest and cautious positioning provides room for upward movement without the risk of a sudden liquidation wipeout.
Key Scenarios for the Coming Weeks
– Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $108K would likely attract momentum traders and liquidate short positions, propelling BTC toward the $115K target. Continued accumulation and rising on-chain activity would support this move.
– Neutral Scenario: Consolidation between $103K and $108K may continue as the market digests recent gains and awaits stronger catalysts, such as macroeconomic news or ETF flows.
– Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold above $103K could increase downward pressure, possibly retesting support near $101K. However, strong buying interest at those levels would likely limit deeper corrections.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent rebound and improving on-chain metrics suggest the asset is regaining its footing after a period of consolidation. Strengthening ESR, MVRV, and NVT ratios indicate growing investor confidence and healthier network activity. If Bitcoin can decisively overcome the $108K resistance, it stands a strong chance of extending its rally toward $115K. As long as accumulation patterns persist and external conditions remain favorable, the bullish case appears to be building momentum—slowly but steadily.