Why XRP’s Q3 Momentum Has Stalled in Q4: A Deep Dive into Investor Sentiment
XRP’s impressive third-quarter surge in 2025, which saw a 27% price increase and a peak at $3.60, has not carried over into the fourth quarter. Instead, the cryptocurrency has encountered mounting pressure, with a sharp rise in realized losses and growing profit-taking activity. These signs suggest a shift in investor psychology—one that could make a repeat of the Q3 rally increasingly unlikely.
Despite Ripple’s continued expansion in the institutional space, XRP’s price has declined by 20% in Q4. This disconnect between Ripple’s corporate progress and XRP’s market performance has created a noticeable divergence in sentiment. While Ripple is thriving in terms of partnerships and ecosystem development, XRP holders are increasingly reacting emotionally to price fluctuations, selling into weakness rather than strength.
One of the clearest indicators of this shift is the decoupling between Ripple’s business momentum and XRP’s price action. While institutional involvement with Ripple has grown, it has not translated into demand for XRP tokens. The market is no longer responding to fundamentals in the same way it did in Q3, which was characterized by a bullish outlook and aggressive accumulation.
During that quarter, investors appeared confident in XRP’s upside potential. Blockchain analysis, specifically Glassnode’s Aggregate Cost Basis metrics, revealed significant buying activity at key levels. Around $3.30, approximately 1 billion XRP tokens were accumulated, while an even larger cluster of 2.5 billion tokens was bought in the $2.80–$2.82 range. These zones served as psychological anchors for bullish traders, reinforcing expectations of a sustained upward trend.
However, Q4 has seen a breakdown of that narrative. Instead of building on Q3’s optimism, traders have begun offloading their holdings amid declining prices. Glassnode data shows a dramatic 240% increase in daily profit realization—from $65 million to $220 million—even as XRP’s price fell from $3.09 to $2.30. Rather than taking profits during periods of strength, investors are now exiting positions under pressure, a clear indication of waning confidence.
This behavior is also reflected in the rise of realized losses. As XRP dropped below $2.50, realized losses surged beyond $470 million. This suggests that many long-term holders are now selling at a loss, amplifying bearish pressure on the token. When the majority of the market is underwater, fear and uncertainty often override rational decision-making, leading to panic selling and further downward momentum.
The psychological stress is exacerbated by the lack of alignment between Ripple’s corporate achievements and XRP’s performance. This divergence creates a cognitive dissonance for investors, who may view Ripple’s progress as a bullish signal but see no corresponding price appreciation in XRP. As a result, faith in the asset is eroding, reinforcing negative feedback loops in the market.
Another contributing factor is the absence of fresh catalysts. In Q3, XRP benefited from regulatory developments, media attention, and improved market sentiment. But in Q4, the narrative has shifted. Without new drivers to reignite interest, traders are defaulting to risk-off behavior, locking in profits or cutting losses rather than doubling down.
Additionally, technical resistance zones are proving difficult to overcome. The $3+ level now acts as a psychological and structural ceiling, reinforced by prior accumulation bands. With many investors still holding XRP purchased in the $2.80–$3.30 range, any upward movement is likely to be met with selling pressure as these holders seek to exit at breakeven.
Moreover, macroeconomic conditions and broader market sentiment are playing a role. With global financial markets displaying volatility and investors becoming more risk-averse, speculative assets like XRP are under increased scrutiny. Liquidity is thinning, and capital is flowing into safer assets, leaving altcoins vulnerable to sharper corrections.
From an on-chain perspective, network activity around XRP has also declined. Wallet activity, transaction volume, and new user adoption have slowed compared to Q3 levels. This decrease in on-chain engagement further suggests that momentum is fading and that the community is less enthusiastic about short-term price recovery.
Looking ahead, a return to Q3 highs would require a significant shift in sentiment and structure. This could involve a major regulatory breakthrough, a new partnership that directly impacts XRP demand, or a broader crypto market rally that lifts all boats. Without such catalysts, the current psychological landscape suggests that traders will remain cautious, and rallies will likely be sold into rather than followed.
In summary, XRP’s Q4 performance highlights a stark contrast to the optimism of Q3. Investor behavior has shifted from accumulation to distribution, realized losses are mounting, and institutional progress is no longer enough to sustain bullish momentum. Unless sentiment reverses dramatically, a repeat of XRP’s Q3 rally remains a distant prospect.