U.S. Investors Unload $700M in Bitcoin – Could BTC Slip Below $100K?
Bitcoin is facing mounting pressure as U.S. investors offload massive amounts of the digital asset, raising serious concerns about whether the cryptocurrency can maintain its position above the $100,000 threshold. Recently, a substantial sell-off—amounting to over $700 million—has taken place, primarily spearheaded by American institutions. This wave of liquidation is sparking fears that Bitcoin may be heading for a significant correction, possibly retreating to $95,000 or even lower.
At the heart of this situation lies the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, a tool that reflects the difference in BTC prices between U.S.-based Coinbase and other global exchanges. Since October 30th, the index has remained in negative territory, signaling steady and aggressive selling activity from U.S. investors. This trend underscores a broader pattern of bearish sentiment across major economies.
One of the most notable contributors to this sell-off is BlackRock, which reportedly sold around 6,800 BTC—worth over $700 million—averaging roughly $30 million per transaction. These sales took place in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement, with no signs of slowing down. The scale of these withdrawals highlights the cautious stance that institutional investors are adopting amid economic uncertainty.
Although Bitcoin ETFs saw a modest revival—registering about $240 million in net inflows after six consecutive days of outflows—this was insufficient to reverse the prevailing downward momentum. The selling pressure from large U.S. entities overwhelmed the inflows, keeping the market under significant duress.
This bearish momentum hasn’t been confined to the United States. Similar trends have been observed in Asia and the European Union, where investors are also liquidating their BTC holdings. As a result, a broad-based sell-off is limiting the chances of a meaningful market recovery in the short term.
Market indicators further support this negative outlook. Bitcoin’s cumulative return by session dropped from +3% to -4% over the past week, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment. Sellers are dominating market activity, and on November 6th alone, sell orders vastly outpaced ETF inflows, effectively neutralizing any buying interest.
Prediction markets also paint a grim picture. According to data from Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin slipping to $95,000 by the end of November has surged to 48%, while the likelihood of a deeper correction to $90,000 currently stands at 24%. On the flip side, the odds of BTC climbing to $115,000 or higher have plunged, ranging between just 2% and 8%.
Multiple macroeconomic factors are contributing to this downturn. The speculative fervor surrounding artificial intelligence, widespread tech-sector layoffs, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown are all feeding into investor anxiety. Additionally, escalating global trade tensions and tariff disputes are weighing heavily on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite the overall bearish trend, some analysts are closely monitoring Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) divergences for potential signs of a reversal. According to Hyblock Capital, historical data shows that when selling volume exceeds buying on shorter timeframes, a price rebound often follows—though this is far from guaranteed. Still, these divergences could offer early signals of a shift in market dynamics, particularly if selling begins to taper off.
As it stands, Bitcoin is in a vulnerable position, with global sell pressure eroding its recent gains. A sustainable recovery will likely require a halt in aggressive selling and a resurgence in demand. Until then, Bitcoin’s $100K support level remains at risk.
Additional Market Factors to Watch:
1. Institutional Sentiment and Fed Policy
Investors are awaiting further clarity from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy. Any signals of tightening could further dampen risk appetite, leading to more crypto outflows. Conversely, dovish tones may encourage renewed interest in BTC.
2. ETF Performance and Retail Inflows
While institutional activity dominates headlines, retail investors also play a crucial role. A steady inflow from smaller investors via ETF products could help stabilize prices, even if temporarily.
3. Stablecoin Liquidity and Exchange Reserves
Tracking stablecoin inflows into exchanges offers insight into buying power. A rise in USDT or USDC deposits could indicate that buyers are preparing to re-enter the market.
4. On-Chain Data and Holder Behavior
Long-term holder metrics, such as HODL waves and spent output profit ratio (SOPR), provide valuable context. If long-term holders begin selling, it may signal a deeper correction. However, continued accumulation by these addresses could act as a buffer.
5. Miner Activity and Network Health
Rising miner outflows can exert additional selling pressure. Monitoring hash rate and miner reserves offers clues about their confidence in current price levels.
6. Regulatory Landscape
Upcoming crypto regulations—particularly in the U.S. and EU—will influence institutional behavior. Greater clarity could attract investment, while stricter rules may have the opposite effect.
7. Volatility Index and Derivatives Market
Examining Bitcoin’s implied volatility and open interest in futures/options markets helps assess speculative momentum. Elevated volatility often precedes large price swings in either direction.
8. Correlation With Traditional Markets
Bitcoin has increasingly moved in sync with tech stocks and broader equity indices. Any downturn in global equity markets—especially amid fears of recession—could spill over into crypto.
9. Sentiment Indicators and Fear Index
Crypto-specific fear and greed indices, as well as social volume and sentiment analytics, offer insight into collective market psychology. Extreme fear phases have historically preceded strong rebounds.
10. Geopolitical Events
Escalating geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts or sanctions, can create uncertainty that indirectly impacts crypto markets. Investors may retreat to safer assets or increase crypto exposure depending on the context.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory hinges on a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, institutional actions, and investor sentiment. While a drop to $95,000 appears increasingly plausible, the market remains highly reactive, and any shifts in fundamentals or policy could quickly alter the outlook. Until then, BTC’s $100K support remains under siege.