Bitcoin’s recent 3% price drop within a 24-hour span has stirred fresh anxiety among traders and long-term investors alike. This decline, while not catastrophic, comes amid a confluence of bearish indicators — notably increased sell-offs by long-term holders (LTHs) and rising spot trading volumes. The market is now testing crucial support levels that may determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have offloaded an estimated 325,600 BTC, marking the most significant monthly distribution since July 2025. This wave of selling pressure has coincided with Bitcoin’s current retest of the $110,100 realized price zone — specifically tied to coins held for three to six months. This is the third such retest in just ten days, suggesting that market participants are watching this level closely as a potential tipping point.
The timing of this pullback is especially notable, occurring just before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting — a period often characterized by heightened market caution. Traders may be scaling back exposure in anticipation of macroeconomic signals that could impact risk assets broadly, including cryptocurrencies.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, on-chain data highlights increased activity from dormant Bitcoin wallets. Approximately 270,000 BTC that had remained unmoved for over seven years were suddenly transferred earlier this year. While some of this movement could be attributed to internal reorganizations or security upgrades, the broader trend points to profit-taking as the primary motivator. The fact that many of these coins were held for years suggests diminishing conviction among Bitcoin’s oldest holders.
Notably, analyst Maartun has observed a sharp uptick in activity from wallets dormant for three to five years, with one recent movement involving 4,700 BTC. These events represent the third such spike in less than 48 hours, reinforcing the narrative that long-term holders are increasingly opting to sell into strength.
Despite the downturn, some analysts argue that increased spot trading volume — as noted by CryptoQuant’s Darkfost — is a healthy development. After the sharp deleveraging event earlier in October, rising spot volume indicates a market shift away from excessive leverage. This could pave the way for more sustainable price movements, even if short-term volatility remains elevated.
However, this optimism should be tempered by the realization that high spot volume doesn’t necessarily imply buyer dominance. Bitcoin’s current range-bound behavior suggests that liquidity hunts and stop-loss triggers could still drive erratic price swings. In fact, the clustering of liquidation levels near current prices may invite further volatility as traders attempt to exploit these zones.
From a technical standpoint, the $110k level is a make-or-break support. A daily close below this threshold — particularly by the end of Thursday’s trading session — may ignite a deeper correction. Should that occur, the next critical support lies at $93,300, which is the average purchase price of coins held for six to twelve months. A drop to this level would represent a significant shift in market sentiment and could usher in a more prolonged downtrend.
The psychological impact of breaking below $100,000 should also not be underestimated. Bitcoin has remained above this level for 128 consecutive days since June 24, reinforcing it as a symbolic and emotional anchor for investors. A decisive breakdown could undermine confidence and trigger cascading sell orders from both retail and institutional players.
Looking ahead, investors should also factor in macroeconomic headwinds. Interest rate policy, inflation data, and broader equity market performance continue to influence crypto markets. The upcoming FOMC meeting will likely shed light on the Federal Reserve’s stance, potentially altering capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty and regulatory developments remain ever-present variables. Any negative news on these fronts could exacerbate selling pressure, while positive developments might offer temporary relief. Investors would be wise to monitor these external catalysts closely.
In the medium to long term, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact. Institutional adoption, technological upgrades like the Lightning Network, and increasing scarcity due to halving cycles all contribute to a bullish case. However, short-term pain is a possibility, especially if key support levels fail to hold.
For traders, now is a time for caution and discipline. Stop-losses should be clearly defined, and position sizing should reflect the heightened volatility. For long-term investors, this could be an opportunity to reassess conviction and accumulate selectively if support levels are respected.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent 3% decline is more than a simple price correction — it reflects a broader shift in market dynamics driven by long-term holders exiting and a cautious trading environment ahead of key macro events. As BTC flirts with critical support, the coming days will reveal whether the market can stabilize or if further downside looms.