XRP is once again drawing the attention of traders as its price action continues to signal weakness, raising questions about whether a significant move is on the horizon. After a prolonged downtrend and consolidation within a familiar bearish setup, the possibility of a breakdown below the $2.3 support level is growing stronger. Market participants are now closely analyzing whether history is poised to repeat itself in the form of a deeper correction.
Over the past few weeks, XRP has formed a descending triangle on the daily chart — a classic bearish continuation pattern. This setup, characterized by lower highs and equal lows, suggests an increasing likelihood of a southward breakout. The price movement has remained confined beneath a key resistance band between $2.5 and $2.77, an area marked by a historical imbalance in supply and demand. The inability to breach this overhead zone has limited any bullish momentum, casting doubt on XRP’s potential to recover in the short term.
Despite a brief surge in optimism following Ripple’s announcement of its entry into the digital asset treasury (DAT) space, the market sentiment remained cautious. The company’s goal to leverage its blockchain infrastructure for seamless payment processing did little to shift the prevailing bearish outlook. Although long-term holders found the news encouraging, it failed to generate enough buying pressure to alter the near-term trajectory.
Investor concerns were further amplified by the revelation that Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen has made over $764 million in profits from XRP sales since 2018. These sales, often timed around local market peaks, have raised eyebrows among the community. While Larsen capitalized on price highs, many retail investors were left holding their positions through drawdowns — a pattern that has fueled skepticism.
Even with recent bullish signals in the XRP Futures market — as highlighted by trader KriptoMessi, who noted a positive turn in the Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — the spot price has failed to reflect similar strength. The divergence suggests that while leveraged traders may be positioning for a bounce, spot investors remain hesitant, possibly awaiting confirmation of a breakout or a breakdown.
Adding to the uncertainty is the delay in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval process for XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has been hampered by ongoing government shutdowns. Regulatory clarity around XRP remains a key hurdle for broader market confidence and institutional adoption.
Technical indicators on higher timeframes, such as the weekly chart, still point to a generally bullish market structure. However, unless XRP can decisively break above the $2.8 threshold — effectively flipping the current resistance zone into support — a sustained rally appears unlikely. Until then, the risk of a drop below $2.3 remains on the table, with $2.0 emerging as the next significant target, according to well-known analyst Ali Martinez.
In a broader context, XRP’s dominance in the crypto market is also under pressure. Historically, it has rebounded from similar levels, but a failure to do so this time could indicate a shift in investor preferences toward more promising altcoins or Bitcoin itself. Notably, a previous event in June 2021, where 30,000 BTC were sent to exchanges for potential profit-taking, did not prevent Bitcoin from reaching its all-time high of $69,000. This suggests that large-scale token movements from insiders, such as Larsen’s XRP sales, may not always translate to immediate price declines — though they do affect market psychology.
To reverse the current bearish trend, XRP would need to achieve several key milestones. First, a strong daily close above $2.8 would invalidate the descending triangle and signal renewed buyer interest. Secondly, a surge in trading volume across both spot and derivatives markets would confirm that real demand is driving the move. Lastly, positive regulatory developments or progress in Ripple’s legal battles with the SEC could act as catalysts for sustained upside momentum.
Long-term investors might also consider developments in Ripple’s enterprise partnerships and cross-border payment solutions. The company continues to expand its network of financial institutions leveraging XRP for liquidity, which may eventually reflect in the asset’s valuation. However, such fundamental shifts often take time to influence price action meaningfully.
In summary, XRP remains at a critical juncture. While certain technical and fundamental signals hint at the potential for a turnaround, the prevailing trend remains bearish. A failure to hold the $2.3 level could lead to a deeper pullback, possibly testing the $2.0 region. For now, traders are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels and remain cautious in the face of mixed market signals.
Strategically, risk management is essential for anyone trading or holding XRP in the current environment. Setting clear stop-loss levels and keeping abreast of both technical developments and macroeconomic influences — such as regulatory news and broader crypto sentiment — can help investors navigate the volatile landscape more effectively.
Ultimately, whether XRP breaks down or stages a surprise rebound, the coming weeks are likely to be pivotal in determining the asset’s medium-term trajectory.