Hyperliquid’s recent surge to $43 generated optimism among HYPE traders, but that upward momentum has begun to wane. As the asset pulls back from its local highs, market participants are now questioning whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a deeper retracement. Despite a brief 4.3% gain in the past 24 hours, the overall trend on the daily timeframe remains bearish, and broader market movements—especially Bitcoin’s rejection at the $116,000 level—are exerting downward pressure.
The decline from $43.14 to $39.85 in just six hours—a 7.64% drop—highlighted the asset’s vulnerability and reinforced the presence of strong resistance just below the $44-$45 zone. Interestingly, this pullback was accompanied by a 30% spike in trading volume, suggesting that traders are actively repositioning themselves, rather than abandoning the asset entirely. This heightened activity could be a sign of volatility ahead, as both bulls and bears attempt to assert control.
Technically, the daily price chart reveals a clear bearish structure, first confirmed on September 25 when HYPE fell below the swing low of $42.39. Although a subsequent rally briefly pushed prices up to $51, this was insufficient to reverse the bearish momentum. Resistance remains strong in the $47.10–$50.85 range, a zone identified as a supply area where sellers have historically stepped in.
Furthermore, the $32.95–$42.46 area has emerged as a price imbalance zone, increasing the likelihood of downside continuation if buyers fail to regain control. Fibonacci retracement analysis places $44.57 as another significant resistance level. For sentiment to shift decisively, bulls would need to push HYPE beyond these resistance clusters and surpass the $51.40 swing high.
Momentum indicators also point to persistent selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 41 on the daily chart, indicating bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been on a consistent downward trajectory since mid-September, confirming a steady outflow of capital from the asset.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart reveals a different, albeit temporary, story. There was a minor shift to bullish momentum over the past two days; however, this optimism is already being tested. The hourly swing low at $39.64 is currently under pressure, and the RSI has once again dipped below the neutral 50 mark, signaling renewed bearish intent.
A decisive close below $39.64 on the 1-hour chart could open the door for a deeper correction, with the $36 support forming the next critical level in the near term. If selling intensifies, HYPE could slide further to $33.10 or even $31.18—levels identified as key daily support zones. These levels will be closely watched by swing traders looking to re-enter positions at more favorable prices.
Looking ahead, several factors could influence HYPE’s next move:
1. Bitcoin’s Dominance: Hyperliquid’s fate is not isolated. Bitcoin’s struggle at the $116,000 resistance level has had a ripple effect across the altcoin market, including HYPE. If BTC breaks out above this barrier, it could reignite bullish sentiment across the board.
2. Market-Wide Trends: The altcoin market recently experienced a modest bounce, and HYPE’s volume increase may reflect speculative positioning. However, unless this bounce transitions into a sustained uptrend, HYPE could face continued pressure.
3. Liquidity Dynamics: According to recent data, Hyperliquid’s decentralized exchange activity remained robust throughout October. High trading volumes and dominance in fee generation suggest that user engagement with the platform remains strong—an encouraging sign for long-term fundamentals, even if short-term price action is bearish.
4. Volatility Zones: The $47.10–$50.85 region remains the primary resistance to watch. If bulls can flip this into support, it would signal a meaningful shift in sentiment. Until then, traders should be cautious of sudden reversals within this zone.
5. Accumulation Possibility: If HYPE revisits the $31–$33 range and trading volume remains high, it may indicate that long-term investors are accumulating. This could eventually support a stronger rebound, but such a scenario would likely take weeks to materialize.
6. Short-Term Trading Strategy: For intraday traders, the $36 level is a potential bounce zone. However, any long positions should be approached with tight stop-losses, as the overall trend remains against the bulls.
7. Sentiment Indicators: If RSI dips into oversold territory on both daily and hourly charts, it could prompt a short-lived rebound. However, without a corresponding uptick in OBV, these rallies may lack sustainability.
8. News and Announcements: Traders should stay alert to updates from the Hyperliquid development team. Any announcements related to partnerships, protocol upgrades, or ecosystem expansion could provide a catalyst for a breakout.
9. Macroeconomic Factors: Broader crypto market trends, interest rate decisions, and macroeconomic data releases can all have a secondary impact on HYPE’s price trajectory.
In summary, while the recent $43 rally created a wave of optimism, multiple technical and fundamental signals suggest caution is warranted. The daily structure remains bearish, and unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels, the asset is more likely to trend lower toward $33 and $31. Traders should monitor short-term supports and resistances closely, manage risk diligently, and avoid overcommitting until a clearer trend emerges.