Is Bitcoin nearing its cycle peak? Some indicators might suggest so, but according to several analysts, the top may still be far ahead. Despite mounting bearish sentiment in the derivatives market and a surge in short positions, key on-chain metrics tell a different story—one of tightening supply and continued accumulation by long-term holders (LTHs). These conflicting dynamics raise the possibility of a powerful move upward, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward a cycle high in the $143,000–$146,000 range.
Over the past week, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures on Binance surged by more than 30%, one of the steepest increases in recent memory. Coupled with deeply negative funding rates, this signals a market that’s heavily skewed toward short positions. In essence, many traders are betting that Bitcoin’s price will fall. Historically, such extreme bearish sentiment often precedes a short squeeze—a rapid price surge triggered when short sellers are forced to buy back into the market to cover their positions.
At the same time, Bitcoin is disappearing from exchanges at an unprecedented rate. Since January 2024, the total BTC available on exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) desks has plunged from 4.5 million to just 3.1 million coins. This significant reduction in liquid supply is a major bullish indicator, as it suggests that holders are moving their assets into cold storage with no immediate intention to sell—even at current high price levels.
Interestingly, miners are also holding onto their coins. In previous cycles, significant sell pressure from miners often coincided with price peaks. This time, however, miners appear to be adopting a more strategic approach, conserving their BTC in anticipation of further price appreciation. Meanwhile, long-term holders are showing strong conviction, refusing to sell even as Bitcoin tests new highs.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, believes that Bitcoin’s current behavior aligns with a re-accumulation phase rather than a distribution phase. Based on his cycle analysis, if the re-accumulation continues, the current bull run could peak somewhere between $143,700 and $146,300. This projection is consistent with historical patterns observed during previous Bitcoin market cycles, where each successive cycle shows diminishing returns but follows a similar structure in terms of accumulation and distribution phases.
However, some market participants argue that the recent high near $126,000 may have marked the start of a distribution phase—potentially signaling that the top is already in. Still, Wedson remains unconvinced, stating, “The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped.” On-chain trends and investor behavior do not yet reflect the characteristics typically observed during previous market tops, such as rapid spikes in exchange inflows or panic-driven sell-offs.
Beyond technical indicators and on-chain data, macroeconomic factors could also influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Inflation concerns, interest rate policies, and institutional adoption trends continue to shape market sentiment. As traditional financial markets remain volatile, Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value is increasingly under scrutiny, adding another layer of complexity to its price outlook.
Another important factor to consider is the halving effect. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, expected within the next year, will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have acted as catalysts for major price rallies, driven by the reduced rate of new supply entering the market. This potential supply shock, combined with dwindling exchange reserves, could set the stage for a sharp upward move.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin also remains strong, with several large-scale asset managers continuing to accumulate BTC through various investment vehicles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted billions in inflows, further reducing available supply and showcasing growing demand from traditional finance players.
Retail investors, too, are showing signs of re-engagement. Google Trends data indicates a steady increase in search interest for Bitcoin, and activity on retail trading platforms has picked up. This suggests that retail FOMO (fear of missing out), a hallmark of previous bull cycle tops, has not yet peaked—another sign that this rally may still have room to run.
In conclusion, while short-term volatility and bearish derivatives positioning may generate uncertainty, the broader picture remains bullish. The combination of vanishing supply, strong conviction from long-term holders, and favorable historical patterns suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle top. If these trends continue, a push toward the $143K–$146K range remains a distinct possibility. Investors, however, should remain cautious and conduct thorough research before making any decisions in this high-risk, high-reward environment.